Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Ottawa Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 16:32:00

Constituency Profile











    Ottawa Centre
   Hon Yasir Naqvi

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):113619

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

27689 52.02%
9678 18.18%
10894 20.47%
4163 7.82%
OTHERS 808 1.52%
Total Transposed 53232

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Ottawa Centre

Total Transposed53232

Federal Election Result (2015):

Catherine Mary McKenna
Paul Dewar **
Damian Konstantinakos
Tom Milroy
Dean T. Harris
Conrad Lukawski
John Andrew Omowole Akpata
Stuart Ryan


06/06/2018 MK15
Surprised to see this in the Liberal column still.
You miss 100% of the shots you don't take, so I'm going to go on record here and say I really think this is an NDP pickup. Wynne basically conceded on June 2nd, and despite last-ditch efforts to 're-elect good MPPs,' I don't think Naqvi is surviving the collapse of the Liberal vote.
06/06/2018 The Lobster
Further to the below, nothing seems to be changing for the Liberals. If anything, Wynne's concession may be backfiring in terms of getting people to the Liberals. While Liberals will put epic resources to get Yasir over the top, I'm doubtful it'll be enough. The Dewar comparison seems apt.
05/06/2018 PB
In 1990, when the NDP had 37% and the Liberals had 32% of the popular vote, this riding went NDP by 9 percentage points or almost 3,000 votes. Yes, boundaries have changed, but this time the NDP are again not far from 37% while the Liberals are closer to 20%. Based on that, this should not be close.
My one caveat - I sure don't see a ton of enthusiasm - many signs on public property, relatively few on private property compared with previous campaigns. That holds true for all parties. A low turnout adds a note of unpredictability.
05/06/2018 Vaive
A very strange call by this website. At the very least, this still should be TCTC. At this point, an NDP win is more likely than a OLP win in this riding.
05/06/2018 Born to Vote
Naqvi is a good MPP, but the riding tends left, and when there is a right wing risk, goes with the party most likely to stop them, which in this election, is the NDP
04/06/2018 Innocent bystander
If the Liberals are loaning out people from Ottawa Centre, it's because they know their cause is hopeless ... polls have them down 12 points ... and they're trying to save Ottawa South or Ottawa West-Nepean, where they're only down 5, or consolidate their relatively narrow 7 point lead in Ottawa-Vanier.
03/06/2018 carolberney@yahoo.ca
Liberals will win all Ottawa ridings when they can loan other ridings help you know that they are winning
02/06/2018 TS
I don't think Naqvi has much of a chance at this point. Given the current provincial and regional polling numbers, this riding is looking solidly NDP. I would be surprised if the NDP won by less than 5%. This riding should be TCTC at a minimum. The sign war is NDP dominated. The NDP candidate is a little bit of a radical but that doesn't seem to be a factor here. Prediction: 45 NDP, 30 LIB, 20 PC, 5 GRN
02/06/2018 J
Very odd that this seat is still in the OLP column. If only one seat in Ottawa goes Ndp, this will be it.
01/06/2018 Innocent bystander
The NDP lead is double-digits, so if Naqvi has a future as Liberal leader, it'll be from the gallery.
01/06/2018 Can-eh-dian Redhead
I agree with ghoris, as well as many other who are making the Paul Dewar analogy. Dewar and Naqvi were good, decent MP/Ps, but were/are subject to trends larger than Ottawa Centre. Ottawa Centre runs Centre to left centre and have elected members from NDP and Liberal, making the riding changeable.
TCTC for now.
31/05/2018 Innocent bystander
The polling has the NDP up more than 10 points ... Liberal numbers seem to have bottomed out, but I think they're too far back with only a week left.
31/05/2018 ghoris
I'm baffled as to why this isn't TCTC. If the Liberals are truly staring a single-digit seat count in the face (and it looks like they are) Ottawa Centre is very much in play, especially given its NDP history provincially and federally. If Ottawa South (which went Liberal even in the 1990 debacle) is TCTC, surely Ottawa Centre is as well.
29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
Paul Dewar lost in this riding because it is filled with high-information voters who realise the necessity of strategic voting in FPTP (even if they don't understand what that means). The consequence is that the NDP will win in this riding off of their strength in the rest of the province. Besides, the unusally high support of NDP in EOntario has to see frutition somewhere and electoral history points in all directions to Ottawa Centre. This result is backed by both Global projection and 'TooClosetoCall'
29/05/2018 Joe
Yasir Naqvi is going down, and big-time. If Liberals underperform they could lose by as many as 30 percent because of NDP doing so well here and now: what, an embarrassment for Trudeau cronies!
5/29/2018 MF
Yasir Naqvi will almost certainly suffer the same fate as Paul Dewar - a personally popular local MP/MPP who is unable to withstand the broader tide against his party. There's a large Liberal/NDP swing vote in Ottawa Centre, and this time the NDP is favored among progressive voters. Joel Harden's 'Corbynesque' campaign plays well in a riding filled with young voters, the well-educated and people who work in the public sector.
27/05/2018 Shakhtar Donetsk
I think this will be very close. On the one hand, the Liberals are tanking, and the NDP have the momentum, a strong candidate, and an energetic ground game. On the other hand, Naqvi is a formidable opponent, much better-liked than his party, and also has a strong ground game. Should be moved to TCTC!
27/05/2018 The Lobster
I inadvertently clicked the 'Liberal' button while making my past submission. As should be clear from that, I feel Naqvi may very well lose -- especially if NDP is on its way to form government. He's certainly much more vulnerable than Des Rosiers and I therefore respectfully disagree with Dr. Bear's rationale. Having said that, I agree with those who say he's been underestimated in the past. And Liberals will put their 'save the furntiture' resources into ensuring that he survives.
Will be back in just over a week with a final prediction. May depend on whether Wynne can stop the bleeding in the next week.
26/05/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals have slipped to third in Eastern Ontario. A very distant third.
26/05/2018 Marco Ricci
I think Naqvi has a chance of hanging on here. He has been underestimated in the past and usually ends up winning by a larger margin than expected. He won by a huge margin in 2014 and has a stronger connection with his community than the average MPP.
25/05/2018 Citizen
This riding only goes Liberal or NDP, the last election the Liberals won handily. However, the Liberals are in freefall matched only by the soaring of support for the NDP. Drive around Ottawa you see NDP signs everywhere. Joel is a strong candidate and there are a lot of swing votes between the Liberals and the NDP and with the Liberals expected to retain only a handful of seats, I don't expect Ottawa Center to be one of them.
I strongly disagree with the idea that this riding will vote similarly to Ottawa-Vanier simply because the results were somewhat comparable in 2014. At over 7% higher, the NDP result was actually quite a bit stronger. Looking back at the last several federal and provincial results, meanwhile, the NDP vote has fairly consistently been 10-20% higher in Ottawa Centre than Ottawa-Vanier. Additionally, unlike Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa Centre has a substantial history of NDP representation both federally and provincially. I'm calling this TCTC because recent Eastern Ontario breakdowns have been mixed. Some have the NDP in second place well ahead of the Liberals (and the most recent Forum poll has them in first place), others have them neck and neck with the Liberals, and a recent Abacus poll has the Liberals just behind the PCs (and well ahead of the NDP) in Eastern Ontario. Given that Naqvi is a popular incumbent and Harden a strong candidate, I suspect that whichever of the two parties is ahead (in relation to the other) in the east will win here. TCTC for now.
25/05/2018 Canadian Politique
I'm shocked -- given the surge of the NDP -- that this isn't moved into the TCTC zone.
25/05/2018 The Lobster
Dr. Bear -- the issues are that: a) the NDP have to close a 42% gap in OV, but a 32% gap in OC (that is not a trivial difference); b) Harden is a much stronger NDP candidate; c) the NDP are putting more resources into OC; and d) most importantly, OC has a history of voting NDP when there is a massive 'towards the NDP' swing. Hell, OC even votes NDP without such a swing.
I haven't called OC yet -- but the two ridings are distinguishable, to be sure.
Des Rosiers stands a real chance of being the only Liberal re-elected (though Del Duca, Coteau, and, yes, even Naqvi may join her). I can't imagine she'll enjoy being part of a rump third-party caucus, and suspect she'll leave mid-term to become a university president or a judge.
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm going to go against the grain here and say the Liberals hold this seat. Naqvi is very well liked and I'm certain that there are 'embarrassed liberals' who won't admit they're voting red. I'd wager that in ridings with strong incumbents, people will vote 'locally'. I'd also wager that this is one of those situations and that Naqvi is a contender in a future OLP leadership race.
23/05/2018 PB
Yasir Naqvi is a well-liked and respected MPP who works hard in the constituency, just like Paul Dewar was. And Naqvi is as safe as Dewar was. With the NDP pushing 30%+ support across the province (and the Liberals at 25%-), this one needs to be moved into the TCTC column, at a minimum. If the NDP have any kind of credible GOTV organization here, they should be able to take this one back.
5/22/2018 Joe
Very strong local candidate who has captured constituency's audience, and it went NDP federally for a long stretch. Enough to make this call for NDP.
22/05/2018 RD
Andrea Horwath was in Ottawa Centre this weekend and if the NDP really is at 30% in Eastern Ontario (as the latest Ipsos poll says) that is going to translate into some seats and Ottawa Centre is clearly the top target.
19/05/2018 C. H.
I live in Ottawa South but am in various parts of Ottawa Centre on a regular basis and have seen Harden signs all over the place, especially in the Glebe and Old South. Considering the NDP surge in the polls and possibility of them forming government, Wynne's unpopularity, and Ottawa Centre having a strong NDP core, that isn't too surprising. The Liberals certainly have a chance but I would give the NDP a not-insignificant edge.
18/05/2018 Brian J
Joel Harden is running a dynamite campaign in Ottawa Centre, but unless the Liberals are tanking across the province then Ottawa Centre is still likely to go Liberal.
But they are tanking, so it's very likely to go NDP. Not as certain as Kingston, but still at least TCTC with a nod to Harden.
13/05/2018 Ottawa Lad
Yasir's a great MPP -- and probable leader if he hangs on after Wynne loses. However, with the NDP polling where they are and the collapse of the Liberal vote provincially... ridings like this are ripe for the picking. Not to mention I've seen scores of lawn signs for Joel that had previously been for Yasir. It'll be tight but Harden wins in a squeaker.
12/05/2018 J
With Liberal support in free fall and ndp surging, this should be the type of seat that
08/05/2018 Call me Cal
I'm keeping an eye here. NDP with momentum and the Liberal bleeding bad make this a seat the NDP will target hard. If it continues to be TCTC it means the NDP are pulling ahead.
07/05/2018 Anthony
New poll shows the liberals in 3rd place with 24% support, NDP 30%, PC 40%. The CBC poll tracker also has the NDP up with 2 seats in Eastern Ontario at the expense of the Liberals. If those numbers hold this will be one of those 2 seats the NDP win in Eastern Ontario.
01/05/2018 Educated voter
Could go NDP because tons of Paul Dewar supporters downtown are tired of the cuts to education, healthcare, and the demands to keep this riding for the Liberals will require tons of Money to be invested for services, communities, and social housing, and everything else.
Too close to call between ndp & liberals .
28/04/2018 J
NDP lawn signs already going up on private property in parts of the Glebe, Old Ottawa South/Old Ottawa East and Rideau Gardens. I don
25/04/2018 GritBusters
Without Naqvi's incumbency, this riding would be a likely NDP pick-up in this political climate.
Even so, Wynne is less unpopular here than she is just about anywhere else in Ontario and Ford is a punch-line in ridings like this, which will tempt centrist or right-leaning voters to go Liberal or stay home.
Personally, I like Harden, can't stand Naqvi, and would love to see an NDP pick-up here, but Team Orange is really going to have to work for it.
Too close to call.
20/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
The Liberal's bounce in support after the budget has turned into a rout - a ten point lead over the NDP for second in the regional polls has become a five point deficit.
Too close right now, but the trend is NDP.
18/04/2018 A.S.
It'll be interesting to monitor Harden because he's definitely on the NDP's activist left--and as with Sanders and Corbyn, such an inclination might actually help more than it'll hurt, though definitely with an assist from a perception that the Wynne Grits are in the doldrums. Though given how the Ottawa-zone ONDP fell so hard by 2014 as to be almost at par with the PCs, and the PCs are in the overall polling lead in Ontario...should this be considered a 3-way, then? The DoFo Tories winning Ottawa Centre? Naw, I can't see it, I just can't see it...
15/04/2018 Matthew L
This is a pretty safe Liberal seat. Heck, pretty sure half this riding is filled with federal Liberal staffers. The NDP selected a strong candidate, and I'm pretty sure he'll increase their vote from last time, but history suggests that this will remain a Liberal seat, even in the event of a (quite likely) loss of power in Queen's Park.
02/04/2018 Dr. Bear
The Liberals are still solid in Ottawa and the NDP are going nowhere in Eastern Ontario. This will stay in the Liberal column, like much of the city.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Wynne's platform, promises and persona are tailor-made for an urban riding like this. Yes Naqvi thinks smarm is charm and ambition is intelligence, but this hasn't mattered to the constituents of Ottawa Centre before so it certainly won't now. If the NDP win this I'll eat my computer.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
A chance of a three-way race, based on how poorly the Liberals are doing, and this being the only Eastern Ontario riding where the NDP have a chance.
19/02/2018 Craig
While this is often an appealing target for the NDP, that was before the Liberals became more of an urban, establishment and creative class-type party focused around highly educated voters. This is one of the few ridings where Wynne is likely still an asset and not a liability, and Naqvi is very popular here too.
That combination should safely keep this seat red, whether or not the Liberals win province-wide. He may even be a potential leadership candidate if Wynne steps aside. Any residual NDP support would also be hindered if they focus too hard on working class voters over social activists, even if this is the only seat in eastern Ontario where they are remotely competitive. The PC's are likely irrelevant here as this is their worst riding east of Toronto.
17/12/2017 KXS
Safe Liberal seat. Naqvi is very popular here and his margins increase every election. He will likely be a frontrunner to replace Wynne as Liberal leader if and when she steps down.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This favours the Liberals but an NDP pick up is possible. The reason for this is the Liberals will have to deploy resourcs to holding nearby ridings like Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Orleans, and Ottawa West-Nepean whereas Ottawa Centre is the only riding east of Oshawa the NDP even has a remote chance in, so expect them to put all their campaign resources in the Ottawa area including those from neighbouring ridings into winning this. Also its possible some PCs might strategically vote NDP too as the PCs have zero chance at winning this.
Id give the edge to Yasir Naqvi because he is a senior Liberal cabinet minister and this riding is full of federal liberal staffers. But the NDP could eek out a win here if it truly is a bad election for the Libs.

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