Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-19 10:26:00

Constituency Profile









   Jennifer K. French

   (83.91% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Lorne Coe

   (16.09% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):125771

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

9454 19.46%
15323 31.53%
21850 44.96%
1910 3.93%
OTHERS 58 0.12%
Total Transposed 48594

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed39888


Total Transposed8706

Federal Election Result (2015):

Colin Carrie **
Mary Fowler
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
Michael Dempsey
David Gershuny


26/05/2018 The Elites
With the NDP surging in the polls, there's no way they're losing a blue-collar union riding like Oshawa. If anything, I expect them to increase their vote share here at the expense of both the Liberals and PCs.
LISPOP has declared this NDP
5/16/2018 Tommy Stinson
This will be a lock for Jennifer French and the NDP. Ford makes too many people uncomfortable, including longtime Conservatives. The Conservatives are split here with the candidate as well. French has done a good job in her first term and is very popular. This site picked the Conservatives last time. The Conservatives were defeated handily by French. In Oshawa the NDP always poll higher than the party. With the poll numbers of the NDP provincial on the rise and Horwath's increasing popularity and a solid platform; June 7th will be a great night for the French camp.
13/05/2018 The Jackal
I will call this an NDP hold as the progressive vote will mostly go to French. It still will be close but it will go orange
09/05/2018 Brian Yaeck
With the orange wave emerging in this election, most progressive voters will likely stick with the NDP and win this seat. The new electoral boundaries will especially help as well.
Though, it will likely be close, I could see some folks in the 'shwa being part of Ford Nation.
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30% and Horwath won the debate tonight on City TV... this will be a NDP hold
The Liberal vote is moving to the NDP to stop Ford...plus the NDP are throwing extra resources to save this riding..should be very close
28/04/2018 A.S.
The weirdest under-radar thing about 2014's Jennifer French blowout is that the Liberal share rose from 2011 *anyway*: how's that as a blow to unite-the-left strategic-vote advocacy arguments, 'we don't need you guys, pffft'. (And in a seat which said strategists presumed the Tories long held because the primary opposition was the 'loser' NDP, yet.) The universal nature of Jennifer French's 'reach' was such that redistribution has more of a neutral effect than some might claim--French actually won or overachieved in the suburban polls that were ceded to Durham, while those gained from Whitby-Oshawa aren't all slouches in the 'affluence' department, either. What French's victory also teaches us is that Oshawa has perhaps been more of a 'parked Tory' node than anything--controversial (and in the case of the 416 especially, pyrhhic) as it was, 2014's 'Horwath populism' hit its definitive bullseye here. Which also promises the ultimate 'duelling populisms' battle; weirdly enough, Doug Ford might have more 'reach' with the Oshawa electorate, even though Christine Elliott actually represented part of the riding. And in an inverse of 2014's ironic outcome, the Tories just might have to thank a cratering Lib vote for 'uniting the right' on their behalf, who knows...
26/03/2018 ML
If the PCs hit majority territory, say 75+ seats like the 1995 Mike Harris rout, this could be one of the first NDP seats to fall. Horwath
23/03/2018 Craig
Conflicting signs exist in Oshawa. Redistribution has removed some of the more affluent areas, leaving the more working-class core intact (an anomaly in the 905 area). Oshawa should be fairly receptive to the Ford agenda, a lot more than Hudak, Tory or Brown.
Jennifer French picked up the seat in 2014, and has built up a profile. That should help her, even if she doesn't necessarily match the demographics of the riding. As a result, this should be a PC-NDP battle royale. The Liberals will likely finish a very distant third.
20/03/2018 Stevo
It's Ford Nation populism versus Horwath's down-to-earth assembly-line roots, both of which find receptive audiences in blue-collar Oshawa (gentrified a bit these days, but Richmond Hill or Oakville it is not). The Liberals likely to be squeezed down toward the 10-15% mark. Recent federal history shows that it is very difficult for the NDP to win here if the Conservatives are doing at least somewhat well. You'd have to give Ford's PCs the edge.
19/03/2018 jeff316
The changes in this riding, both socio-economic and geographic, would help a Wayne Gates style MPP. They do not help a Jennifer French type MPP. Which is sad, because she is a rising star of the Ontario NDP.
Without the threat of mass public sector layoffs, the PCs may even take a majority.
NDP ends up with G
24/02/2018 Asani
After redistribution, this riding is now limited to the less-affluent central and downtown Oshawa. Used to be NDP stronghold, but is now represented by CPC at the Federal level. Jennifer French (NDP) enjoys the benefit of incumbency, but Bob Chapman (CP) is a long-time Oshawa Councillor and has name recognition. Liberal party is a non-factor here. It would be a very interesting battle that would determine the future of NDP in Durham region.
23/02/2018 globe
The redistribution has given away the more affluent/suburban Northern part of this riding to the nearby Durham. As a result, the core Oshawa that was traditionally pro-NDP will be more dominant. Jennifer French has a good chance to hold on to this riding for NDP.
08/01/2018 MF
Many came to the conclusion that Ed Broadbent's riding has become too much of a commuter suburb and too deindustrialized to vote NDP again. But then the NDP won a stunningly big victory here in the last provincial election. This was collateral damage in the Hudak campaign - even a lot of rather conservative trade unionists who embraced the Harris tax cuts couldn't stomach Hudak's attempt to emulate Scott Walker's Wisconsin. The question in this election is with Patrick Brown trying to regain the support of workers and trade unionists, will Oshawa return to the PCs? Or has Jennifer French developed enough of a local profile to hold on? A PC-NDP race that's TCTC for now.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
While historically an NDP riding, it has in recent federal and provincial elections save the 2014 provincial one generally narrowly gone Tory with the NDP putting up a strong second. NDP does well in the older parts of the city which has a lot of GM workers, but the newer subdivisions which are mostly your upper middle class families who commute daily to Toronto tend to favour the PCs. It seems when the Liberals fall here, the PCs as opposed to NDP benefits more so the better the Liberals do the better the NDP's chances are while the worse they do the more likely the PCs are to pick this up. Most Liberals here are your fiscally conservative Blue Liberals, not progressive ones so they swing between Liberals and PCs, not NDP and Liberals.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster