Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Northumberland-Peterborough South

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:03:00

Constituency Profile










    Northumberland-Quinte West
   Lou Rinaldi

   (76.16% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Granville Anderson

   (13.59% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Jeff Leal

   (10.26% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):107840

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20584 41.52%
17616 35.54%
9156 18.47%
2112 4.26%
OTHERS 103 0.21%
Total Transposed 49571

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Northumberland-Quinte West

Total Transposed38249


Total Transposed6398


Total Transposed4924

Federal Election Result (2015):

Kim Rudd
Adam Moulton
Russ Christianson
Patricia Sinnott


06/06/2018 The Light
A redefined huge riding, certainly a vast difference in the record of the candidates, one young lady advised at an All Candidates meeting she had lived in several areas in the province, huh? Roots and knowledge of the Riding never hurts, thusly Rinaldi deserves to grasp the gold ring, his past work and loyalty to the constituents is admirable.
Ford burnt a few Red Tory folks who felt dissed by antics at the runoff with Elliott.
The only hurt pending could be drain to the no real hope of election trio probably taking roughly 2400 votes between them.
Stay tuned.
04/06/2018 Newcastle Ontario Resident
This is a fairly new riding so it's difficult to see how this one will end up going. It's normally a PC stronghold but the local PC candidate is nowhere to be seen which will greatly hurt their vote totals on Election Day. It's hard to believe this will be on the few ridings to go Liberal either. I would not be surprised if this riding went NDP mostly because of a lack of campaigning from the other parties.
02/06/2018 TS
Why is this TCTC? I just don't understand. This is 99%+ likely to go PC. Even if the NDP were up 5% province-wide, which they are not, this seat would still go PC. I wouldn't be surprised if the PCs get a majority of the votes in this riding. Easy PC win. Prediction: 45 PC, 30 NDP, 20 LIB, 5 GRN
02/06/2018 PM
Greens putting in solid work here & might be rewarded with a surge of votes. People who are jumping off the Liberal ship are leaning more and more towards the Greens. PC & NDP picking votes too which might help the PC win here. Who finishes 2nd thru 4th will be interesting.
01/06/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal collapse is not complete, but it's enough for them to finish third, and to make this riding Tory.
29/05/2018 WL
An NDP win here does seem unlikely, but take a look at all of the polls and the trend that is very clear. Liberals are in danger of disappearing in Ontario and Lou's slight popularity won't give them a win here in a riding he won by a very small margin when the party was flying high. I know die-hard Liberals who worked the campaign for Lou last time that are voting NDP this time. It will be easier for PC candidate Piccini to take this riding, but I have to believe a lot of folks are very much afraid of Doug Ford and that is an anchor around his neck. First-timer Jana Papucoski will have a shot if the polls continue to shift as they have from day one and local Lou supporters realise he cannot win this time.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Even light erosion of Liberal support to the NDP will ensure a PC victory. Unless there is a massive ground swell in NDP support in Durham and it spills over the county line, I don't see this going anything but blue.
5/24/2018 RDL
There is a reason Ford was never elected in Toronto - if anything the NDP may win with a negative vote against both the PC's and Liberals. I think it is better the devil we know than the one we don't.
There is no major reason for the Peterborough area, including this seat, to lose its bellwether status this election. With the PCs and NDP both having reasonable chances of forming government, it's too early to call this one for either party.
08/04/2018 A.S.
A cynic's judgment might be, this would have been a Tory hold in 2014 had Rinaldi not bid for his old seat back. That said, Northumberland's always had a George Hees-ian Red Tory streak, and like much of Heartland Central Ontario where Tory strongholds were overturned or turned marginal, it found Wynne Liberalism oddly congenial--at first. Now the cynicism's inverted; it's Rinaldi's incumbency that stands in the way of my handing this one over to the Tories...
05/04/2018 C. H.
Although the PCs only lost this by a few points last election, the Liberals are only polling slightly below the 2014 result in the east and there isn't a strong-enough NDP in Peterborough to take many Liberal votes here. However, this riding is certainly an easy pickup for Ford if the PCs do win the election.
13/03/2018 Stevo
Very very low-hanging fruit for Ford's Conservatives. I'm surprised EP hasn't made it official here yet.
16/01/2018 Neal
Lou Rinaldi is one of the few Liberals anyone has any respect for, but it will not save him this time. The Liberals are in for an incredible drubbing and will be hard pressed to win any seats outside of the 416, and a handful in the 905, Kingston and Ottawa-Vanier.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
As a largely rural riding that the Liberals barely won both federally and provincially, I expect the PCs to pick this up unless they do something really stupid.

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