Niagara West

	BARTON, GEOFFREY E.
	FRIC, CURTIS
	KANEE, JOE
	KARATOPIS, STEFANOS
	OOSTERHOFF, SAM
	TILLMANNS, JESSICA

Incumbent(s):

	Niagara West-Glanbrook    Sam Oosterhoff    (90.42% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Welland    Cindy Forster    (7.94% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	St. Catharines    James J. Bradley    (1.64% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			86533
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		10175	24.97%
		19482	47.80%
		7948	19.50%
		2348	5.76%
	OTHERS	803	1.97%
	Total Transposed	40756
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Niagara West-Glanbrook
		9529
		17433
		6836
		2145
	Others	766
	Total Transposed	36709
	Welland
		386
		1620
		992
		161
	Others	25
	Total Transposed	3185
	St. Catharines
		261
		428
		119
		41
	Others	13
	Total Transposed	862
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Dean Allison **
		24732	48.80%
		Phil Rose
		16581	32.70%
		Nameer Rahman
		5802	11.50%
		Sid Frere
		1511	3.00%
		Harold Jonker
		1234	2.40%
		Allan de Roo
		797	1.60%

	31/05/2018	CM 65.95.251.96
Strong PC hold in this area. The riding has been in the news for its 'youth-quake' status, as all four major party candidates are under 30: incumbent Sam Oosterhoff for the PCs, Brock University student Curtis Fric for the NDP, 18-year-old Jessica Tillmanns for the Greens, and elderly 27-year-old Joe Kanee for the Liberals. Oosterhoff keeps his seat, with the NDP maintaining the distant 2nd place they recently gained in Oosterhoff's 2016 by-election.
	28/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Needless to say, Niagara West is Niagara Oost; and the boundary changes only make that more of an inevitability (Wainfleet already having been a Tory-blue Ooster-rump within Kormos Kountry). What'll be worth noting is if the byelection's strong quarter-of-the-vote NDP 2nd maintains itself even in the absence of Glanbrook and Saltfleet. (Or how many wine-country yuppies are still prepared to tokenly stick it out with the Libs than to cast their electoral lot with a homeschooler. Remember: it's a general election, not a byelection.)
	12/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
Sam Oosterhoff actually supported the 'establishment' Christine Elliott for the PC leadership. Doug Ford or not, this Bible Belt-y, heavily Dutch Canadian riding is a very safe seat for the PCs.
	19/01/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
Sam Oosterhoff may be hated by the establishment, including that within his own party. However, that hasn't stopped him from winning two difficult nomination battles and greatly overperforming former leader Tim Hudak. Even if he somehow left the party to run as an independent or a smaller party like Trillium, I can't see him not being the strong favourite. The boundaries are even more favourable for him now as some developing suburban areas in Hamilton (Binbrook and near the airport) are no longer in the riding, while the rural areas remain largely intact. The urban establishment may hate to hear it, but socially conservative policies are mainstream here, and it is economically populist as well. As a result, this seat should remain solidly blue largely *because* of Oosterhoff - the only problem is his views are toxic in urban Ontario and trying to keep him quiet may be tough.
	15/01/2018	J.T. Edmunds 72.143.192.199
The PC's could run anyone here and still win. And they proved it when they elected a home-schooled 19 year old in the last by-election. The Liberals will likely jump to second with Hamilton being lost in redistribution but Pc's will still win handily.
	20/12/2017	Dr. Bear 75.119.248.107
A solidly conservative riding, with a candidate who would likely hurt the PC party if he was the leader, but holds views popular in the community. Easy PC hold.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Sam Osterhoff may have rather extreme views the PCs would rather not have to deal with, but this is a largely agrarian socially conservative riding, even more so than under the old boundaries of Niagara West-Glanbrook so easy PC hold here.
	10/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
Still a solidly Tory riding after redistribution. Sam Oosterhoff will remain the youngest MPP.