Niagara Falls

	DEMIZIO, DEAN
	FRASER, KAREN
	GATES, WAYNE
	MCSHANE, CHUCK
	SOMERS, SHAUN
	ZUBIC, GORAN

Incumbent(s):

	Niagara Falls    Wayne Gates    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			128357
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		7329	14.39%
		16702	32.80%
		24131	47.39%
		1724	3.39%
	OTHERS	1037	2.04%
	Total Transposed	50923
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Niagara Falls
		7329
		16702
		24131
		1724
	Others	1037
	Total Transposed	50923
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Rob Nicholson **
		27235	42.10%
		Ron Planche
		22318	34.50%
		Carolynn Ioannoni
		13525	20.90%
		Steven Soos
		1633	2.50%

	04/06/2018	Guest Guesterson 173.238.58.236
I wonder why no one wants to discuss this riding... Anyway this will stay NDP with the current numbers, the only question will be what the number will grow to. From 47 to what? Hamilton-Niagara while grouped in with the '905' due to s shared area code, and geographic proximity, is really more economically/culturally/demographically similar to Rustbelt-ish SW Ontario, and the NDP is doing better than ever there.
	29/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
It wasn't just incumbent strength helping Kim Craitor in 2011, it was Fort Erie Mayor Wayne Redekop running for the NDP and splitting the opposition as well--and conversely, weak Lib/strong NDP candidacies helped Rob Nicholson hang on federally in 2015; so, inherent strengths and weaknesses for all parties have a history of being overrated or underrated out Niagara way. As it now stands, Niagara Falls ought to nearly be Oshawa's match as a left-right battle for the populist soul--though NF at least has the proximity of Kormos' ghost going for it, never mind Gates' own appeal, while Oshawa's more 905-sprawl insular. But it'd take a Tory party running on 90-seat overdrive to really topple Gates--which is exactly what some polls are showing. Hey, if Peter Stoffer could be toppled federally, *no* trademark-mustachio'd NDPer is immune...
	19/03/2018	jeff316 69.165.157.213
Gates holds this riding - but only as the NDP pours in resources in the last few days to hold 9-11 incumbents in what will be a provincial rout second only to the Rae loss.
	16/03/2018	Craig 130.18.104.137
Take away Wayne Gates, replace by generic candidates and this would almost certainly be a strong PC pickup, buoyed by working class voters' anger with Wynne and the establishment and jumping to Doug Ford. However, he is extremely popular here (with a Peter Kormos-like agenda and personality) and that alone should insulate him, keeping Niagara Falls orange. Since the Liberals will likely be irrelevant here and ending up in single digits, the PC's would need at least 45-48% to top Gates, and they have rarely scored that high even in their best days. Even though Niagara Falls is only 120 km from Toronto, it behaves a lot more like a southwestern Ontario Rust Belt-type seat these days. Given the strength of Wayne Gates, he should overcome the Ford surge by himself.
	13/01/2018	Niagara Guy 99.230.53.185
With 4 years of incumbency under his belt and a social media presence that is off the charts compared to the typical MPP, the NDP's Wayne Gates is in a very good position to hold this riding. His only real challenge will come from the Tories, but the PC party would need to be polling around 50% province wide in order to overcome the personal popularity of this energizer bunny of an MPP.
	08/01/2018	MF 69.159.31.101
Wayne Gates is personally popular in Niagara and should be easily re-elected. The Liberals are a nonfactor in this riding.
	17/12/2017	KXS 69.157.99.21
This is a Wayne Gates riding, not an NDP riding. There's also been some controversy with the PC nomination process here.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is a riding where personal candidates can often outperform their party. So Wayne Gates despite running in a not traditionally NDP friendly riding could win on personal popularity. Kim Craitor held this in 2011 largely due to his popularity as it probably would have otherwise gone PC. Likewise Rob Nicholson won this in 2004 and held it in 2015 on personal popularity as it likely would have gone Liberal otherwise. So while with a generic candidate this would favour the PCs, Wayne Gates popularity might be enough to hold this but too early to tell.