Newmarket-Aurora

	BALLARD, CHRIS
	BAXTER, DORIAN
	BOURDEAU, MICHELLE
	ELLIOTT, CHRISTINE
	GORLYNSKIY, DENIS
	ROBBINS, LORI
	VAN DECKER, DENIS
	WILLIAMS, MELISSA
	YACIUK, BOB

Incumbent(s):

	Newmarket-Aurora    Hon Chris Ballard    (99.08% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	York-Simcoe    Julia Munro    (0.92% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			109457
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		19062	44.12%
		15865	36.72%
		5157	11.94%
		1749	4.05%
	OTHERS	1371	3.17%
	Total Transposed	43205
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Newmarket-Aurora
		18859
		15664
		5087
		1731
	Others	1369
	Total Transposed	42710
	York-Simcoe
		203
		201
		70
		18
	Others	2
	Total Transposed	494
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Kyle Peterson
		25508	45.20%
		Lois Brown **
		24057	42.60%
		Yvonne Kelly
		4806	8.50%
		Vanessa Long
		1331	2.40%
		Dorian Baxter
		762	1.30%

	22/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
It may not be Whitby, but it's 'equivalent', anyway, i.e. at that outer-GTA frontier of 'Tory-compatibility' (the western equivalent would be Milton/Burlington). But without a Flaherty/Elliott family machine in place, it was vulnerable (and finally, as a post-Frank Klees open seat in 2014, victim) to the McGuinty/Wynne Liberal juggernaut. So, efficiently transpose seatless Christine Elliott in there and let the inevitable pendulum momentum take effect, right? Makes sense. And hey: the two moderate lady leadership contenders are right next door to each other! Of course, one first has to dislodge a sitting Lib cabmin--even if it's a lateblooming and low-profile cabmin in this battle of the Chrisses; still, I'll withhold a prediction, even if I really shouldn't, as it'd most likely take Ford-spiting self-sabotage to rob Elliott of a seeming sure thing...
	20/04/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.192
Christine Elliott, likely the next Finance Minister, won't have to stay up late on election night here in Belinda-ville.
	04/04/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
Christine Elliott may be a parachute candidate in Newmarket-Aurora, but the poll numbers clearly show an anything-but-Wynne sentiment in the 905. Considering this was fairly marginal in 2014, it'll take significant improvement in the polls before the Liberals have a chance.
	20/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
Since Christine Elliott is running in Newmarket-Aurora, and not in St. Paul's, it sounds like she really does want to enter politics again under Ford's leadership. She should be able to take this.
	06/02/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
As an affluent 905 area riding, this on paper should be an easy PC pickup. That said, it first depends on who becomes PC leader. A party led by Mulroney or Elliott would be clearly favoured here, as they are more socially moderate and business focused. If Doug Ford wins the leadership, however, the Liberals would be favoured to hold - likely with an improved margin over 2014. Economic populism and cultural (or social, if someone else ran) conservatism are not positions you want to hold in upscale ridings. The riding association saga will likely hit them hard here.
	21/12/2017	Gabbith 75.98.19.133
The PC nomination controversies appear to have hit here harder than other ridings. Also a strong Liberal incumbent here. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being the only Liberal seat in the 905 after this election.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
As an outerlying 905 riding, this only goes Liberal in very bad elections for the Tories as the last provincial and federal one were and even then in both cases they were very narrow Liberal wins, so barring a major mess up, this should be an easy pick up.
	06/12/2017	Kathy 99.228.107.135
This is one of those seats the PCs barely lost in 2014 that with a better provincial performance they will easily win back.