Nepean

	ANSARI, ZAFF
	LOUIS, RAPHAEL
	MACLEOD, LISA
	MATTHEWS, DERRICK LIONEL
	O'GRADY, JAMES
	SNOW, MARK A
	SRIVASTAVA, LOVINA

Incumbent(s):

	Nepean-Carleton    Lisa MacLeod    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			104775
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		15342	36.30%
		18273	43.23%
		5703	13.49%
		2328	5.51%
	OTHERS	623	1.47%
	Total Transposed	42268
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Nepean-Carleton
		15342
		18273
		5703
		2328
	Others	623
	Total Transposed	42268
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Chandra Arya
		34017	52.40%
		Andy Wang
		23442	36.10%
		Sean Devine
		5324	8.20%
		Jean-Luc Roger Cooke
		1513	2.30%
		Jesus Cosico
		416	0.60%
		Hubert Mamba
		69	0.10%
		Harry Splett
		66	0.10%
		Tony Seed
		41	0.10%

	5/28/2018	Educated voter 206.47.100.137
There has been several complaints from the community about Lisa Macleod for bullying the community over their fundraising activities, and many people are looking for a new face for Nepean. Plus, people are looking for healthcare & education funding increases. I believe there is also a new school being built in Barrhaven. Lovina is a great Candidate.
	05/05/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Interesting to see how with redistribution, Lisa MacLeod's sitting on a mere 7% margin--well, 'mere' by post-1995 provincial exurban-suburban OttawaCon standards, though it definitely did foretell 2015's federal Liberal steal. That is, if her party was in a position of weakness, she'd have opted for Carleton, not Nepean--and by extension, if the present riding existed as an open seat in 2014, it probably would have gone Liberal. But her party is *not* in a position of weakness, even if hereabouts it's more in spite of than because of DoFo. And besides, MacLeod's suburban-cookie-mom persona has been the eternal perfect ergonomic fit around these parts, to the point where overthrowing her seems like sacrilege...
	29/03/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
It's Lisa Macleod vs. Doug Ford here. Conflicting signs make this hard to call. Without Macleod, this would be a likely Liberal pickup given that Ford's populist message plays out very poorly in Ottawa. If Elliott or Mulroney had won the leadership, this would be an easy, safe hold for the PC's as Macleod is very popular here - even though it went fairly solidly for the Liberals federally in 2015. You're left with two imperfect teams here in this largely middle class to affluent, well educated riding. Could this be a surprise pickup, if Lisa Macleod cannot overcome the dislike of Doug Ford? We'll see.
	16/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
The Capital Region is not a good fit for Doug Ford. However Lisa Macleod may hang on due to declining Liberal fortunes province-wide and her own high profile. Marking this TCTC for now.
	30/01/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
Looking at past numbers and given the current disaster that the PC party finds itself in, I would probably be calling this TCTC were it not for Lisa MacLeod. This is very much her riding and she will keep it PC. Were she to bow out, then all bets would be off.
	2017-12-23	R.O. 24.146.17.189
This riding has been redistributed significantly from the last election , its now more suburban than rural . Lisa Mcleod has been mpp since 2006 and one of the higher profile members of the tory caucus.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Unlike Nepean-Carleton which was a mix of suburban and rural, this is more suburban so should be more competitive, but the unpopularity of the Ontario Liberals and the fact Lisa McLeod will either get a cabinet post if the PCs win or be a potential frontrunner for next leader if they lose should ensure this stays PC.
	06/12/2017	Kathy 99.228.107.135
Lisa MacLeod has been an effective MPP for this riding, winning large shares of the vote consistently. She will keep the seat.