Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 23:54:00

Constituency Profile










    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (48.46% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Jagmeet Singh

   (33.13% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Bob Delaney

   (18.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):118046

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14470 48.27%
6525 21.76%
7303 24.36%
838 2.80%
OTHERS 845 2.82%
Total Transposed 29981

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Mississauga-Brampton South

Total Transposed15390


Total Transposed8443


Total Transposed6148

Federal Election Result (2015):

Navdeep Bains
Jagdish Grewal
Dianne Douglas
Heather Mercer
Naresh Tharani


06/06/2018 PM
Liberals are in deep trouble and I hear that the NDP will pick up the vast majority of the ex-Liberal vote, with the balance going to PC and Greens. This will be a close one between NDP & PC but if there is just one riding where the NDP can pick up in Mississauga this is it.
02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
Terrible incumbent Liberal MPP overall overall, plus the fact the leader is so unpopular this time around will flip the riding to PC since the NDP may not even be a factor here. Except a few parts of the Malton neighbourhood
02/06/2018 Abe
(2nd prediction) I think it's currently leaning PC as qc125 is putting this as a PC win. Though, if enough liberals do decide to jump boat to the NDP party on election day (along with the independent candidate being enough of a spoiler for the PCs), I wouldn't be too surprised if the NDP won either. To the commenter who couldn't find Caroline Roach's husband running for the PC local nomination race in Mississauga-Malton (husband placed 2nd), there is an insauga article on this titled "Who's Running for MPP in Mississauga?" Caroline Roach's signs are blue as well (similar to the PC party;s blue) but this could be a coincidence.
Still too close to call, but if we are to believe the NDP is at 38%+ provincially, this riding is definitely in play, given they (ONDP) currently represent part of this riding. The sign war on private property in the Malton area of the riding shows a PC-NDP race, not sure about the other part of the riding (which, admittedly is the Liberal candidate's current riding).
01/06/2018 Innocent bystander
No NDP growth + Liberal collapse = PC win.
31/05/2018 Ekim
I am not entirely sure why the other commenter mentioned anything about the candidate father since I could not find anything about him. I believe he/she may be mistaken and is thinking about another gentleman who competed in the nomination who was also the son of the infamous federal Mississauga-Malton candidate who believed gay people should be treated. Nevertheless, he came second and so does not matter.
This race is interesting and on the ground, it seems that it is a race between the Liberals and PC with the NDP coming in third - at least from sign count. However, signs do not mean anything and the Liberal MPP is not very well known due to lack of work in the community. The PC candidate is also very well known in the community for being on the board of multiple charities and has a popular radio show. These three points along with the recent NDP surge make me believe that the PC candidate should easily pick this seat up.
29/05/2018 Kingpin Win
The transposed votes obviously inflate the NDP based on personal popularity of Jagmeet Singh, but even then, the 905 looks dismal for Liberals and strength of NDP province-wide will make them the obvious progressive choice for this riding. Furthermore, Roach will take enough potential PC voters to make the NDP the favourite. The PCs or Liberals may still win,but the NDP should be considered the clear favourite. Global news projects NDP and 'TooCloseToCall puts them 10 points up on PCs.'
29/05/2018 Joe
This is obviously a two-way between PC and NDP now, too close to call but Liberals are looking at less than 20% share of electorate that is still open to voting for them. High minority population will doom them, opening the door to PC and paving the way perhaps for slight NDP takeover.
5/28/2018 Abe
TCTC. I think this will be a close race with the three main parties but I think that the independent candidate (Caroline Roach) will end up splitting some of the votes from the P.C candidate here as her husband used to be in the P.C Party. I would say this is leaning NDP due to the surge in polls but not by a wide margin.
27/05/2018 PM
If there is one riding in Mississauga that the NDP have a shot at winning, or close to it, this is the one. This riding should be TCTC.
25/05/2018 Teddy Boragina
This is the strongest NDP chance in Mississauga, where its likely the NDP will win 6 of the 7 ridings. By becoming federal leader, none of Singh's voters have gone anywhere, they still back the NDP, and will vote NDP in this election. This riding is an NDP lock.
5/23/2018 The Lobster
Now this is an interesting riding. The NDP is beginning to surge in the 905, in ways that are going to translate into seats outside of Oshawa and Brampton East. The next logical pickups are the other four Brampton ridings. Then it comes to Durham -- and this riding.
I agree that this is the Mississauga riding that is least receptive to the PCs (though Dougie may change that), but I honestly think this is the NDP's likeliest Mississauga pickup, and that it's too early to call it for the Liberals. I can understand Election Prediction's reluctance to take too many ridings away from the Liberals, but almost all projections have them in single digits, and this is unlikely to be one of them. Admittedly, the higher-than-average NDP support from last time may be due to Jagmeet spillover, but now that can turn into NDP spillover, generally.
5/22/2018 Joe
This place looks a lot like a ripe NDP pickup, what with Jagmeet Singh taking part of this riding in his re-election bid and their 905 polling. But Mississauga is strongly PC this time around and they're running a good candidate who should be able to win. Long story short, PC party is favourite but don't rule out the possibility of an NDP win either.
07/05/2018 KXS
The 905 used to vote monolithic way, but we've seen over the past provincial and federal election that Brampton and Mississauga are tilting more to the left as opposed to York Region.
This is most Liberal riding in Mississauga. The Tories might be able to pick it up if Liberals collapse and the NDP surge.
If the NDP is polling at 30% (as a recent Macleans-Pollara poll states), I would put them in play for this riding too.
07/05/2018 The North Remembers
Granted this is not going to be the best election for Liberals; I predict substantial seat losses and a PC government. However, the new riding of Mississauga - Malton is perfectly placed to buck the trend. A strong incumbent MPP, who has deep roots in the community and a PC candidate whose father's Newspaper has made some questionable comments. The riding, and especially Malton, has been voting red for a long time and NDP/Green votes will go red this time to stop a blue waver. I predict Miss-Malton to be one of the few Peel holdouts for the grits.
03/05/2018 Shred13
This riding is a rather swing riding that has sent key people to Parliament/Queen's Park for all three parties in the last few elections. It has sent Jagmeet Singh who is the current NDP federal leader, Navdeep Bains the Liberal Minister for Innovation and in 2011 it sent Bal Gosal, the Former Sports Minister. This is a very swing riding that goes between everyone and it seems to depend a lot also on the candidates themselves.
What is lesser known is the fact that until the Brampton East nomination, Mississauga-Malton had the largest nomination meeting in PC History with over 12000 people signed up and may play well into Doug Ford's hand. Furthermore there is a strong possibility for the Liberal and New Democrats to split the vote causing a win for the PCs like 2011.
25/04/2018 PeelAway
PCs have the chance to Peel away many Peel ridings however Mississauga-Malton, by the numbers, appears to be the strongest Liberal hold out. Malton is deep red and while there may be some bleeding in Britannia if the polls hold this could be the only riding left Liberal Red in June.
2018-04-1 A.S.
Of all the Mississauga ridings, this one superficially appears the most equipped to resist the Tory wave; and that's largely because of Malton proper--not only a traditional Tory wasteland, but formerly within Jagmeet Singh's riding, which is why the NDP's ahead of the PCs in transposed 2014 figures. (Though actually, Malton has been more of a last redoubt for the Liberals vs Jagmeetmania--Bramalea = Tory, Gore = NDP, Malton = Liberal, the former constituency's general pattern went.). On the other hand, the Malton community's most immediate non-industrial-sprawl neighbour happens to not be any other inhabited part of Mississauga or Brampton, but...Etobicoke North, i.e. Ford Country, shared blue-collar multiethnicity and all. Well, if the NDP still wants to seed some 905 'Notley effect' beyond its Jagmeetian Brampton bulwark, this is the place to do it--and by clashing with the spillover Ford effect, it could, just could, wind up splitting things on behalf of the Libs (hey, who's to say that vote-splitting merely benefits Tories?).
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
Given the terrible numbers for the Liberals in the 905, I don't think this should be called for them right now. While I don't think this is going to be massively swinging to DoFo & Co, it is certainly vulnerable.
26/03/2018 John K
Christine Elliott won this riding over Doug Ford. I doubt Ford will win here. It may have many Ford supporters, the type that won't actually take the time to vote (as sad as that is). This will stay Liberal.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Easy win for next door neighbour Dougie! I believe he'll win a broad swath of nearby ridings.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
06/02/2018 Craig
It's true that this is a 905 and not a 416 riding, but demographically it is virtually identical to Etobicoke North. The question is whether or not Doug Ford has coattails that spread across city limits. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt right now and say Ford would be able to contend here. I'd need to see more regional-level polling to confirm that theory though.
If Mulroney or Elliott is PC leader, this should be an easy Liberal hold and probably their safest seat in Peel Region in that scenario. That is especially true considering Jagmeet Singh no longer holds sway here (which should hurt the NDP), and that allowed the Liberals to win easily at the federal level (helped by a horrible Conservative candidate).
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Based on the federal results it would look like an easy Liberal hold, but lets remember the Conservative candidate got dropped after it was too late due to his comments on gays so had that not happened would have gone heavily Liberal but not quite as big a blowout. Liberals definitely favoured, but if you have a repeat of 2011 federally where the Tories get around 45% provincewide and Liberals only 25%, then a narrow PC win is possible. If polls in the new year continue to show things tighter I will change this to Liberal.

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