Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Mississauga-Erin Mills

Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:57:00

Constituency Profile










   Harinder S. Takhar

   (99.98% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (0.02% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):117199

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17429 49.26%
10385 29.35%
5361 15.15%
826 2.33%
OTHERS 1385 3.91%
Total Transposed 35384

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed35384

Federal Election Result (2015):

Iqra Khalid
Bob Dechert **
Michelle Bilek
Andrew Roblin


02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm watching this one for a few days...I'm not ready to call it PC yet...
The models are showing the PCs in the mid thirty range but a clear Liberal - NDP split just shy of 30% each. With no liberal incumbent and the OLP officially in save-the-furniture mode, we could see a significant chunk of that liberal support going orange. I have a hard time fathoming this riding going NDP, but this race has forced me to significantly change my opinions about other "sure-fire" races.
5/16/2018 Latif
Most of the polls are predicting a win for Ford at provincial level but not in this riding. PC candidate is gradually losing its grounds due to an aggressive campaign of Liberals. Being a long time resident of this riding, I can easily say that Liberals are still strong here.
20/04/2018 Joseph J
Takhar is not running. In his absence this riding will definitely go conservative. This was the first riding (part of Mississauga Erindale) that federally was won by Dechart way before the Harpar sweep. Also because of very hostile and divided liberal nomination battle all the muslim voters will not support Imran the Liberal candidate in this riding.
18/04/2018 A.S.
Is Harinder Takhar running again; and if so, would it be here? Though at this point, the bigger Liberal asset might be Iqra Khalid's powerhouse federal representation--though that might not be enough to prevent this riding from being ethnoburban grist for the DoFo mill, Takhar or no Takhar. (Heck, even Takhar has been prone to more sluggish mandates than one'd expect from a ethno-bloc-rallying leadership contender.)
30/03/2018 Stevo
Another non-descript Peel Region seat. Like all the others in Brampton and Mississauga, this is liable to turn on a dime regardless of the impressive Liberal margin from 2014. It was first Peel riding to turn blue federally in 2008 ahead of all the others in 2011 (though a controversial Liberal candidate helped).
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
26/02/2018 Art
Based upon the latest Final financial reports filed with Elections Ontario, indicating financial readiness to wage a campaign, Erin Mills will go PC. The Liberals have no final report available.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Unlike the ridings to the north and west this is fairly close to a bellwether with usually both the PCs and Liberals doing a bit better than their provincewide numbers and NDP much worse. If the PCs maintain their lead in the polls they should pick this up, but if they falter the Liberals could hold this. So lean PC at the moment but Liberals still have a chance.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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