Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 16:31:00

Constituency Profile










    Mississauga East-Cooksville
   Hon Dipika Damerla

   (78.23% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (21.77% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):121792

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18510 50.19%
10302 27.93%
5500 14.91%
1344 3.65%
OTHERS 1224 3.32%
Total Transposed 36880

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Mississauga East-Cooksville

Total Transposed27803

     Mississauga-Brampton South

Total Transposed9077

Federal Election Result (2015):

Peter Fonseca
Wladyslaw Lizon **
Ali Naqvi
Jaymini Bhikha
Tim Sullivan


05/06/2018 Christopher L
While I still think the Liberals have a fighting chance in Mississauga Centre, I think the game is up in M-East Cooksville. It's hard to see the Liberals holding on to more than 30-35% this time, even with the strength of the local campaign, and that simply won't be enough to hold off the PCs. They should win relatively easily
31/05/2018 Chris
Yet another riding, along with many throughout the province, where PC could steal a seat via a split vote. Right leaning will almost always vote conservative whereas Left leaning can sway between any of the other parties.
5/28/2018 Third & 10
This is the only riding in the area which has any signs of life for the incumbent Liberal MPP. Even still, Dipika's run looks like it has a good chance of coming to an end given the sign war which is absence the colour orange and polling showing that Peel is now very much a blue vs orange race.
5/27/2018 Paul
Driving through the streets of MEC, there are definitely a few signs for the PC's but a lot more for Dipika. Now how big of a melt-down happens to be in store for the Liberals is a question mark, but I believe that they may stabilize in the mid 20's which would shore up some ridings as this one. Remember, Brampton may lose a lot more votes with the Singh connection.
13/05/2018 PM
Greens have a candidate here now but no NDP candidate yet.
29/04/2018 PM
As of today, no NDP or Green candidate, so where are all the disgruntled former Liberal voters to go? PC's? Some will but some won't. 3rd place in this riding is available to who wants it.
21/04/2018 PM
This riding is going to be a toss up. The change in riding boundaries has really turned this into 'must watch' TV on election night. Whoever wins, won't win by much.
15/04/2018 A.S.
Not as 'safe' as it looks from federal figures--remember, it's more of a 'Peter Fonseca' riding (albeit thwarted in 2011) than a 'Liberal' riding, and the boundary adjustments which add north-of-Eglinton polls and carve away the heart of Mississauga Centre (thus shifting the riding profile in more of a single-family-dwelling direction) don't help matters. And if anyone's likely to go Ford-ward, it's the vestigial 'Wlad Lizon' Poles (hey: Renata's proof the Fords are 'one of them')
05/04/2018 C. H.
With the PCs polling high in Peel, while this might be one of the 'safer' Liberal seats in the area, nothing in the area is truly safe for them in 2018, but they probably have the slightest of edges.
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
My earlier (truncated) submission suggested that the Liberals were too far ahead to lose this riding. While the post-Ford victory brouhaha is subsiding elsewhere, the 905 numbers are absolutely terrible for the Liberals. I have to agree with other posters that Ford's brand of populism, coupled with an anything-but-Wynne sentiment, means the PCs have a good shot at scooping M.E.C.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Damerla gonzo. This is the typical lower middle-class riding that craves Doug's populist message. I'd be surprised if there is a safe Liberal seat in the 905.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
17/12/2017 Dr. Bear
Doing some simple math, the Liberals are too far ahead here to lose unless there is a 2011 federal-style meltdown. I don
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Fairly strongly Liberal leading riding so as long as the Liberals are within 10 points of the PCs they should hold this, but if the PCs win by double digits they should pick this up.

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