Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Bay of Quinte

Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:31:00

Constituency Profile










    Prince Edward-Hastings
   Todd Smith

   (60.60% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Northumberland-Quinte West
   Lou Rinaldi

   (39.40% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):109488

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16481 38.20%
16828 39.00%
7359 17.06%
2126 4.93%
OTHERS 354 0.82%
Total Transposed 43149

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Prince Edward-Hastings

Total Transposed26897

     Northumberland-Quinte West

Total Transposed16252

Federal Election Result (2015):

Neil Ellis
Jodie Jenkins
Terry Cassidy
Rachel Nelems
Trueman Tuck


06/06/2018 MF
Although the NDP slipped through under very different cicurmstances in this area in 1990, this is staying PC and it won't even be close. Furthermore if the 'anti-poppy' candidate has any impact it's here in this riding that includes a military presence and is a bastion of Loyalist-influenced Anglo Canadian traditionalism.
27/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Unless the NDP start surging in eastern Ontario in the way they have in SW Ontario, this will safely go to team blue. The bleeding of liberal support will likely allow the PCs to ride up the middle of a vote split.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
This new riding will be one where, in the future, the Liberals will be more competitive than they would had been under the old boundaries, but just as the federal Libs picked it up in 2015 when they were on the ascendancy, the provincial Tories can quite rightly consider this a lock here in 2018.
22/04/2018 A.S.
The loss of rural Hastings and gain of Trenton/Quinte West ought to make this a very viable 'Loyalist Liberal' prospect--that is, if it weren't for overall polling trends and Todd Smith's incumbency. But it is, now, a largely 'urban' seat in spite of itself; and the major 'rural' part remaining (PEC) is not only gentrifying itself into hypothetical WynneLib-compatibility, its mayor is the candidate. Yet keep in mind that even all of that couldn't remove the PCs from pole position in the notional 2014 figures...
Clear win for Smith. He's expectionally popular in all three parts of riding and beyond, Quaiff's a good civil servant, but his Liberal bid seems ingenuous given all the times he's sparred with the party in the past.
16/01/2018 Neal
A BCer seems to think B of Q is ripe for the Liberal picking, but there are several factors that make such a horrible outcome unlikely. For starters, Todd Smith is very popular personally. The Wynne government is VERY unpopular. Only the most diehard leftists will vote for them. I have never met anyone who does not loathe Wynne with every fibre of their being.
Quaiff himself raises questions as a candidate. Gets elected to the Mayor's chair in PEC, by opposing the Green energy Wind Turbines, and now he is arguing that he can oppose the better from WITHIN a Wynne government? Even a 3d grader can see through that nonsense.
Moreover, Quaiff hasn't even served a full term as mayor.
To compate this toi teh Federal election in 2015 also makes no sense.
Ellis (underservingly) won the riding, based on name recognition, and on the general trend to the Liberals in the last two weeks of the campaign. Until hen Jenkins had a 50-50 chance of holding the riding for the Tories.
The only achievement Neil Ellis has as mayor is raising our taxes to unbearable levels over his tenure. A big reason why I left Belleville.
I think Provincewide, the Liberals will be hard pressed to hold more than 15-20 seats, and will likely finish third. If there are to be any pick ups, Bay of Quinte wont be one of them.
27/12/2017 A BCer
This is a new riding, composed of the City of Belleville and the surrounding areas. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Todd Smith, the PC incumbent for Prince Edward-Hastings and the candidate in this riding will be defeated by Liberal Robert Quaiff. In 2014, the riding under these boundaries would have gone heavily Liberal, as it did in the 2015 federal election. It also seems as though smaller cities in this area of Ontario (Kingston, Peterborough) are witnessing a long-term trend towards the Liberals.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
On the surface this might look ripe for a Liberal pick up, but lets remember the federal Liberal candidate was a former popular Belleville mayor and the federal Tories had a very weak candidate. Wynne is nowhere nearly as popular as Trudeau and Todd Stone is a fairly strong MPP and well liked so the new boundaries will make this more competitive, but I still expect the PCs to come out ahead.
Todd Smith is a popular MPP. He took it from a Lib cabinet minister and even held on in 2014. PC hold.

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