Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:34:00

Constituency Profile









    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (52.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Michael Chan

   (47.58% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):104693

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15142 43.88%
14082 40.81%
3430 9.94%
1311 3.80%
OTHERS 546 1.58%
Total Transposed 34510

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oak Ridges-Markham

Total Transposed18107


Total Transposed16403

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Saroya
Bang-Gu Jiang
Colleen Zimmerman
Elvin Kao


5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm surprised I had not said anything here earlier. Easy PC gain. Even with PC support now starting to bleed away, the NDP don't have a prayer here and the Liberals have bottomed out in much of the province.
20/05/2018 The Jackal
Amanda Yeung distancing herself from the Liberal brand speaks volumes about her election chances. Not to mention this riding went blue in the last federal election.
17/05/2018 VT
Billy Pang should win this riding for the PCs however Amanda Yeung is clearly distancing herself from the Liberal brand. Her campaign works refer to her as City Councillor not Provincial Candidate. Guess if she doesn't win she can go right back to her $104,000 job (salary + benefits)
5/16/2018 GritBusters
The Liberal loser is hiding her party's branding and using off-brand NDP orange in her signs.
Looks for the party run by off-brand Donald Trump to win this riding and the off-brand 'NDP' Liberal to finish 3rd.
15/05/2018 J in Markham
Interestingly, as the signs go up, and the literature starts going out, Amanda Collucci has decided to leave the word 'Liberal' off all her signs, and off her literature. She seems to be trying to distance herself from her party. I guess she knows the word liberal will not get her too far in this riding
18/04/2018 A.S.
What's worth noting is that the dynamic that led to 2015's federal CPC victory was prefigured in 2014's provincial figures--most notably in the Oak Ridges-Markham part; while that riding at large shifted mildly to the Liberals from 2011, the part within the present Markham-Unionville swung dramatically Tory, and that's in spite of its being primarily 'new-burban' (Angus Glen, Cathedraltown, etc) which conventional wisdom would have consigned to the Liberals. Yes, there may be mild hope for the Grits still--they certainly nominated well enough--but whether 'well enough' is good enough is an open question...
03/04/2018 NotDoug
Many people who lives here don't like Doug Ford. If there are only 50% of PC memberships in this riding voted for Doug, that tells you Doug's support is not strong here.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Take a look at Doug's riding-by-riding numbers in the leadership. He's a sure-faire winner here
11/03/2018 JC
Markham has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days, that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates.
During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community.
In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA (this riding) and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal.
This riding is going PC.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Strong Liberal candidate here should not be discounted. Local councillor who, according to the Liberals, signed up thousands of members for her nomination. Let's see who the PCs run.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This was probably one of the biggest surprises federally as I assumed they would only win this if they won the majority of seats in Ontario which they did not. Still this has a strong Liberal base and I suspect this will be close to the provincial average rather than favouring the Tories like it did federally so at the moment leans PC, but could go Liberal if the Liberals rebound. Also noticed the federal Tories held or even slightly increased their vote in ridings with large Chinese populations and I heard marijuana legalization was very unpopular amongst the Chinese community, but provincially this will be a non-issue.
With Michael Chan not running in this redistributed riding, which I may add went Conservative federally in a horrible election for the Tories, I see the PCs getting this seat easily.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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