Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:00

Constituency Profile









   Monte McNaughton

   (99.99% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Rick Nicholls

   (0.01% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):105919

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

9136 20.19%
20514 45.33%
11969 26.44%
2072 4.58%
OTHERS 1570 3.47%
Total Transposed 45260

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed45260

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bev Shipley **
Ken Filson
Rex Isaac
Jim Johnston


05/06/2018 Rachel
This riding will undoubtebly stay PC. McNaughton is like a celebrity and Case has put up a good campaign but he just isn
04/06/2018 Cal
I just want to be on record as saying I think this riding will fall into NDP hands. Mcnaughton has faced a tough campaign and Doug Ford is draging him down and he's up against a well know former Warden. Liberals have never forgiven him for what he did to Maria VanBommel (MPP 2003-2011) and they are lining up to get their pound of flesh.
03/06/2018 Philip Shaw
Mayor Todd Case, a solid candidate for the NDP, which may be enough to swing this largely rural riding Orange. In the last election, the NDP candidate didn't even live into the riding and finished 2nd. The biggest issues as always is agriculture and farm issues, like ethanol, RMP and value added agricultural processing. Roads and Infrastructure and the wind turbines in Chatham Kent big issues too. Monte has a fight on his hands here.
25/05/2018 KXS
With the new polls from EKOS and Forum, this is not a safe PC riding anymore.
23/05/2018 Christopher L
The NDP should be able to put up a big result here - probably in the mid 30s at least, taking big chucks out of a collapsing Liberal vote (which might not break double figures). But provided Monte holds his vote in at least the mid-to-high 40s (which seems pretty likely unless the PC vote starts to collapse), the riding will remain in PCs hands.
18/05/2018 bza
Likely a PC hold despite the NDP doing quite well in the polls in southwestern Ontario. I could see it being close. NDP might be able to get up to 40%, but won't be enough.
06/05/2018 A.S.
Hard to believe now that Monte had to overthrow a Lib incumbent in two tries before getting to where he sits now--hard to believe, too, that it was once considered a federal swing seat, as opposed to a solid Tory seat. The fact that Monte bet on the wrong horse (Caroline Mulroney?!?) means little. Look for the usual/typical result: Wallaceburg and the reserves go NDP, everything else is by and large wall o' Tory. NB: transposed from 1990, this might well have been the strongest Family Coalition seat in Ontario.
22/03/2018 Call me Cal
How is it possible that a career politician, who has never held a real job, lives on his daddy's name and money, who has been running for Premier since he was a teen can be seen as a fit for a blue collar riding. Oh wait he's an extremist on social issues. Unfortunately, Monte likely wins maybe by less but let's not forget the NDP have at some point held every part of this riding and the Liberals will be lucky to get to 10% in this part of Ontario.
19/03/2018 jeff316
The NDP thought they had a secret win here by running the Warwick reeve but really it was never in doubt.
06/02/2018 Craig
This is likely the safest Conservative seat in Southwestern Ontario, but that can be more attributed to McNaughton (and Shipley) being very popular. A mostly blue collar, rural riding, it is economically populist and leans to the conservative side socially overall, which is a deadly combination province-wide (especially in the GTA) but works wonders here. McNaughton falls right in line with the local views but that could be why he didn't run for leadership - he'd win big in the southwest, but the growth is in the GTA and not here.
For those reasons, it should be solidly PC, likely with around 60% of the vote. The NDP will likely finish a solid but distant second, far behind McNaughton. (That said, if the seat opens up, they might have a shot if the social conservatives are disillusioned in the future.) The Liberals should be irrelevant here with Wynne so heavily focused on urban policies - in fact, they might be lucky to crack 10%. The only problem - could he say something that hurts the party badly overall? Even if it helps him here.
30/01/2018 ML
Fairly safe PC seat in a primarily rural riding. This riding likely stays blue in June.
Monte McNaughton will win re-election. He ran for the leadership of the PC Party and has a high profile and will likely be a cabinet minister. He really works hard in the riding. People in Southwestern Ontario don't like Wynne nor do they want the NDP. They will never forget Bob Rae.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This may have once been a Liberal stronghold, but this was back when the Liberals were more conservative and a rural populist party provincially which they are not anymore. Monte McNaughton may be too right wing in many parts of the provinces but not here. The main problem with him is if he says something stupid that costs the PCs votes in the 905 belt, but it won't hurt his chances here. Also this was one of only five ridings where the Tories federally got over 50% in Ontario.
10/12/2017 True Pragmatist
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is a safe PC seat now. Monte McNaughton has a strong network across the riding and works really hard. He has built a coalition of Conservatives and disenfranchised liberals. He won big in 2011 and 2014. Bigger this time.
Monte McNaughton is very popular in his riding. This is also a very religious and social conservative riding, and votes PC in fairly large margins.

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