Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte

	AYLWIN, KEENAN
	DOWNEY, DOUG
	FAERBER, RAM
	JANSSEN, DAN
	KERK, JEFF
	MITCHELL, MARK
	ROSKAM, DARREN
	TUCK, MICHAEL

Incumbent(s):

	Barrie    Ann Hoggarth    (68.66% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Simcoe-Grey    Jim Wilson    (18.62% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Simcoe North    Patrick Brown    (12.72% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			97876
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		15093	39.26%
		14803	38.51%
		5755	14.97%
		2601	6.77%
	OTHERS	188	0.49%
	Total Transposed	38440
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Barrie
		10171
		8479
		4080
		1684
	Others	188
	Total Transposed	24602
	Simcoe-Grey
		2903
		3700
		1054
		465
	Total Transposed	8122
	Simcoe North
		2019
		2623
		622
		451
	Total Transposed	5716
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Alex Nuttall
		21091	41.70%
		Brian Tamblyn
		21005	41.60%
		Ellen White
		5202	10.30%
		Marty Lancaster
		2648	5.20%
		Darren Roskam
		401	0.80%
		Ram Faerber
		188	0.40%

	03/06/2018	Mariposa Mike 99.237.104.111
This riding may be an indicator if we have a PC majority. First this was suppose to be Patrick Brown's 'new' riding and PCs have parachuted Doug Downey who was defeated by Jill Dunlop in PC nomination for Simcoe North. Ex PC member running for Trillium Does 14 Liberal vote go NDP.
	29/05/2018	The Hedonist 99.248.64.56
Hey admins, can you boot this 'DM' poster, he's obviously an NDP troll based on his ranting and poor excuse at justifying a prediction. This riding will be going PC. The NDP surge is real - but not up in Simcoe, Barrie etc. this is BLUE country, and will go between Liberal and PC, not NDP. PCs will win easily.
	5/28/2018	DM 184.147.53.203
Patrick Brown just attacked Doug Ford's leadership and the PC Campaign. This has nailed the coffin on PCs and this riding will go NDP.
	5/28/2018	SmartyPants 76.67.16.174
I would think PCs should win this. If you drive through the region though you
	26/05/2018	Harris 70.24.77.76
I get a sense that Doug Downey will win this riding. He won't win it in a landslide or anything like that but he'll probably squeak out a win.
	5/24/2018	MT 209.171.88.80
Patrick Brown supports are upset with the appointment of Doug Downey. Mr. Downey has avoided many of the local debates. Keenan from the Green Party has an excellent sign game, and is likeable. Dan from the NDP is competent, but does not appear to have a strong campaign. Jeff from the Liberals seems to be knocking on doors and is all over the Riding. His twitter exposure is unreal. I call this a close Liberal hold, but very close.
	5/16/2018	DM 184.147.53.203
The PC having Doug Ford as a leader has destroyed any chance of the PC winning this riding. People are so pissed off at the 15 year old Liberal Government they will not vote Liberal people will stay home or vote NDP. So the NDP have a chance of picking up this riding.
	09/05/2018	Laurence Putnam 50.92.139.181
I made my quintessential Brown-bashing comment in the other riding by mistake. Not going to repeat myself. Easy PC hold.
	28/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Patrick Brown may be water over the bridge now, but there's still reported tension over the 'anti-democratic' appointment of Doug Downey as Tory standard-bearer, with the party's former riding CFO opting to run for Trillium, etc--though given overall polling, it's likelier to reduce the PCs to a plurality than to rob the PCs of a victory hereabouts.
	24/03/2018	Teddy Boragina 45.72.194.213
Call me crazy but I'm gonna say this will go Liberal, even if the Tories gain provincewide. There are likely a lot of PC supporters who are big fans of Brown who will simply stay home on election day.
	01/02/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.126
Well clearly things have changed a bit since my earlier prediction :-) Contrary to a statement below, there is actually no evidence (yet) that the party has fallen in the polls. A Forum poll taken after Brown's resignation still shows PC 42%, Lib 27%. I expect the race to tighten but not enough for the Liberals to successfully defend this.
	31/01/2018	seasaw 99.225.244.232
I mentioned in my previous post that this riding should not be called for anyone yet, and that was when it was the leader's riding, now, it's no longer the leader's riding. There's been two polls released since the whole Brown scandal, and both of them indicate no drastic change in voter support. We have to wait and see how the campaign unfolds and closer to voting day before we can predict this riding
	31/01/2018	Steve 216.105.85.45
With Patrick Brown most likely not running, if I was Ann Hoggarth I would move to this riding from Barrie/Innisfil if she wants to stay as an MPP. Barrie, and most of Springwater would vote Liberal, and did at the Federal Level. This riding is now a toss-up, and do the smart thing Ann, and run in this riding.
	29/01/2018	J.T. Edmunds 24.114.62.144
Was going to be a lock for the Conservatives but with Brown's scandals and the party falling apart and falling in the polls, this could slide to the Liberals. Will be very close though.
	28/01/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
If Ann Hoggarts was smart, she would step down as candidate in Barrie-Innisfil and run here. This is the more Liberal-friendly seat of the two Barrie seats, and most likely Patrick Brown will be stepping down in disgrace. If he ran as an independent, the Liberals would be strongly favoured, otherwise it is too close to call. Yes, Alex Nuttall is a strong social conservative who won in a recount, but with these boundaries in a provincial election taking that route is difficult. Can you really get high turnout out of Springwater and Oro-Medonte like in a federal election, while knowing you will lose handily in Barrie proper? At the same time, running a more moderate candidate will help a lot in Barrie, but leave you exposed to lower turnout in the rural areas. No matter what, a tossup right now if Patrick Brown does not run as an independent; Liberal hold if he does.
	27/01/2018	HLS 99.243.4.18
'This is Patrick Brown's riding and barring a massive screw-up, he should easily take this.' Funny you should mention that. I suppose this depends on whether Patrick Brown decides to stay in. Vic Fedeli has indicated he wouldn't sign Brown's nomination papers, but who knows if Fedeli is the leader after March 28th. I understand the seat has been PC for quite some time. There could be a circumstance in which Brown were to run as an independent if he didn't get PC backing, and splits the vote with a PC candidate assuming the Liberals are strong enough. Their high water mark in the area was 2003 when they did just about 37 per cent of the vote.
	27/01/2018	MPP345 99.229.217.197
I'm wondering how the results in this riding, especially, will be influenced by the allegations of sexual assault against Brown. If he continues to run, will he have a major hit to his base? If someone else runs in his stead, will they be disadvantaged by association?
	25/01/2018	Teddy Boragina 104.247.243.67
This riding was always the more liberal friendly of the two, with Brown deep in scandal, this riding will probably go Liberal.
	25/01/2018	M. Lunn 67.226.161.209
With the explosive sexual allegations, I think it is highly likely Brown will not be the candidate. Depending on how this plays out too early to say the impact but if the PCs lose her they will have a bad night provincially. Until a new leader is in place and we see how the public reacts, I am keeping this as too close to call.
	09/01/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.111
seasaw : 'Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing' LOL. It 'means nothing' that this is the leader's riding? Uh, seasaw, are you new to prognosticating Canadian politics? or politics...anywhere? Now, back in the real world, let's just say if Patrick Brown bothers spending any time in his home riding during the campaign, it will be for a victory lap. This would be a PC slamdunk even without the leader's name on the ballot. The Liberals' success in Barrie in 2014 was due to commuters sick of the traffic and receptive to Wynne's transit message. It was a momentary lapse and will not be repeated, and in any case Brown is just as enthusiastic about regional transit if not more so. Likely a 60%+ finish for Brown if he ends up Premier of a majority government.
	27/12/2017	A BCer 64.180.22.208
Although this is the less conservative of the two Barrie ridings, PC leader Patrick Brown will easily pick it up.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is Patrick Brown's riding and barring a massive screw-up, he should easily take this. The real question is does he become the next premier or fall short. At the moment he is favoured to become the next premier, but still a possibility of falling short.
	10/12/2017	seasaw 99.225.226.230
I wouldn't give this one to the PC's yet. Sure, it's the leader's riding but that means nothing. Right now there are polls that put the PC's with double digit lead there's also a poll out that puts them behind the Liberals. Several consistent things in all polls: 1. PC support is down by several points from 6 months ago, the Liberal support is up considerably 2. Kathleen Wynne remains unpopular but Patrick Brown isn't doing much better 3. Though Wynne is unpopular, her ideas aren't. So far Brown has failed miserably to impress voters and present himself as a premier. Unless this trend changes, I wouldn't bet on the PC's
	06/12/2017	Kathy 99.228.107.135
Patrick Brown is running here. I cannot see the PC's losing this seat unless this election is a disaster for them, which at this point it isn't looking that way.