Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Kingston and the Islands

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:07:00

Constituency Profile









    Kingston and the Islands
   Sophie Kiwala

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):116996

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19698 42.06%
9744 20.80%
13781 29.42%
3388 7.23%
OTHERS 224 0.48%
Total Transposed 46836

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kingston and the Islands

Total Transposed46836

Federal Election Result (2015):

Mark Gerretsen
Andy Brooke
Daniel Beals **
Nathan Townend
Luke McAllister


04/06/2018 Blue Lobster
Gary Bennett was the former mayor of Kingston. This means People will vote for him based on name recognition. Sophie Kiwala is very popular here but the Liberal party will be hard for this area to support. Ian Arthur hasn't been in any elections here but belongs to the popular party. Bennett will win due to a split left.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
I can not deny that the NDP are holding their own in Kingston and will take it on Thursday. The Liberals are largely throwing in the towel and trying to save the furniture. This will help the NDP here.
29/05/2018 SS
Mainstreet did a riding poll in Kingston & the Islands and the NDP are 8 points ahead.
29/05/2018 The Lobster
Mainstreet did a local poll, showing the NDP with an 8% lead. Not huge, but outside the margin of error. More importantly, fits in with general trends. (I disagree with the notion that Kiwala's incumbency advantage is *that* much of an advantage, particularly compared to incumbants similarly fighting for the lives such as Naqvi and Del Duca.) Barring any Liberal rise in Eastern Ontario in the last week of the campaign, this should be the first seat east of Oshawa to fall into NDP hands.
Polls have been showing NDP with unusually high support in eastern Ontario. With PCs concentrated in rural ridings and Liberals in Ottawa, Kingston is exactly the kind of place where the NDP would show their comparative advantage. Liberals are heading for a wipeout and there isn't enough support for the PCs to come up the middle. Backed up by LISPOP projections.
5/28/2018 centrist voter
This will be very tight, but is still doable for Kiwala. Believe it or not, her best hope is for strong NDP pre-election day poll results provincially. The PC candidate is popular, has had a high community profile for years, and backed Elliot. The NDP candidate is a good guy, but pre-writ was only known to a narrow spectrum of the community -- mainly those who were core NDP supporters anyway. As a result, the 'anti-Wynne' vote will not coalesce around one or the other, but be split. Kiwala, on the other hand, is personally very popular. As well, the riding 'leans Liberal' naturally. As long as 'anti-Ford' voters don't need to vote strategically (hence the need for the NDP to show well in the pre-election polls provincially), Kiwala may be able to retain enough Liberal and progressive support, benefit from a split of the anti-Wynne vote, and still pull it off.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I retract my (much) earlier Liberal call and say it's TCTC. I can not deny that the race has changed and the NDP are gaining steam in the urban parts of the east.
23/05/2018 MK15
This'll still be close, but the NDP momentum right now puts them in the driver's seat for this riding if the election were held tomorrow. We'll see how the next two weeks go, but Ian Arthur could be Kingston's first NDP MPP since 1995.
Last time, many people voted Kiwala to help block a 'cut 100,000 jobs' Hudak government as the city felt the impact of Harper's federal job cuts. This time, with the north of the city cut out of the riding, general dislike of Kathleen Wynne, and Bennett drawing the votes of centre-right Liberals, the NDP's going to get enough of a push from centre-left Liberals to win a plurality, even if it's 33-30-27-10, NDP-OLP-PCPO-GPO.
20/05/2018 Reme
A couple of things to keep in mind when predicting an NDP win. Yes, the Dippers came out to almost 30% in last provincial election here in Kingston, but that was an exception to their normal 3rd place standing here (both provincially and federally). The reason was, I think, due to a backlash vote against the residue of McGuiny getting tough on the public service (particularly with pay freezes on teachers and civil servants) even though Wynn had recently taken the helm. Those same voters ain
This riding will be provide a MPP in Cabinet for Horwath...OTOH it may be the only NDP seat east of Oshawa unless Ottawa Centre can be flipped...which will happen if there is an orange wave victory for the NDP
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
Given the NDP's recent surge, and the Liberals' strong track record in this riding, I think there is a very good chance of the PCs winning as a result of a 'split left.'
19/05/2018 MF
Time to withdraw my earlier Liberal prediction: I think Kingston is most likely going NDP. The NDP received nearly 30% of the vote last time. Kingston is a progressive city and many will vote for the NDP if they're perceived as the main 'progressive' party. The PCs did very poorly here last time and I don't see them gaining enough votes with Ford leading them to win on a vote-split (and even the Harper Conservatives couldn't take this in 2011 when they were much further ahead of their opponents than the PCs are now). I could see this being a random Liberal holdout, but overall I think an NDP victory is more likely.
18/05/2018 Brian J
Eastern Ontario is a hard-sell for the NDP for some reason, and I never understood why.
Anyway, the Orange Wave overtaking Ontario may not hit the eastern portion that hard, but I still see 1-2 seats flipping to the NDP. Kingston and the Islands and Ottawa Centre are the NDP's two targets here, and Kingston is very likely to flip.
18/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
A similar seat to Guelph in many ways, but here I predict a different outcome. While the Greens ought to poll 25%+ in Guelph, they will do well enough to siphon some votes here but not that well. Liberal base is collapsing in Eastern Ontario and is most strongly concentrated in Ottawa-area ridings and ridings with higher proportions of Francophone voters. NDP numbers seem to be holding firm or climbing in the region and their vote is highly concentrated into only a couple of ridings, including this one. They're already working with a base of 30% here from the last election...I'm seeing the NDP squeaking out a win in the range of 38% here leaving the PC's in second place and the Liberal candidate lucky to hold on to 25% of the vote. The polls have been consistent for some time that this will be a bad election for the Liberals, the only question is how bad. It's shaping up to be a nightmare, and that's good news for the NDP here.
With the NDP surge in the polls they're probably the front runners here now; with so much of the Liberal vote having drifted to the NDP, pretty much any seat in the province that the NDP had a strong second showing to the Liberals last time is going to go orange this time.
Bennett is a much stronger PC candidate than normal for this riding, so he has a chance if the NDP surge fizzles out before election day.
15/05/2018 YGKProud
CBC has the NDP winning two seats in Eastern Ontario. This is one of them. The strategic vote will be NDP to keep the Tories out.
14/05/2018 Adam
'Lacklustre local organization' is hilarious. Arthur's campaign has managed to put their signs up, take down the signs on public property (thanks to a bogus warning of a 'crackdown', got to love dirty tricks) and then put them all back up again in the span of time that it took the Liberals, PCs and Greens just to get their signs planted. That points to an extraordinary amount of energy behind the local campaign, especially with the Ontario NDP actively targeting the seat.
It's going to be a three-way battle, but enough local voters are sick of Wynne and the Liberals and cannot abide Doug Ford that Arthur and the ONDP are emerging as the choice most voters can accept (and gladly so).
12/05/2018 Rod Hudson
Although I personally loathe the idea of a Ford Tory taking this seat, I see it as a real possibility this time around as a direct consequence of vote splitting among the Libs and the Skeleton Park dippers. Normally a safe seat for the liberals given the number of govt jobs here, an anti-Wynn sentiment might syphon off a good number of votes to the NDP in spite of their lacklustre local organization
10/05/2018 Anthony
Latest poll has NDP at 33% support and the CBC poll tracker has them up 2 seats in Eastern Ontario at the expense of the Liberals. This will be one of the 2 seats in Eastern Ontario that turns orange.
10/05/2018 Johnny Fakename
Although Kiley's team has done a good job putting posters up (seems odd for a Green Party candidate to put wooden non-reusable posters up), Former Mayor Gary Bennett or Ian McArthur will most likely win it. Kiwala is still a popular candidate but Wynne is a large factor into why the seat is changing. I am going with Gary Bennett due to the likely three way split between NDP, Liberal, and Green
09/05/2018 The Lobster
It's becoming increasingly apparent that the appetite for change is so great that those mortified by DoFo will vote NDP. As others have noted, the NDP are seemingly going to gain in Eastern Ontario and this is the likeliest seat to switch.
I'll add that Chez Piggy (where Ian Hunter is chef) is a Kingston legend.
08/05/2018 Christopher L
I increasingly feel the NDP have a real chance of picking this up. The NDP have a strong base from 2014 to build on, and with polls showing them running ahead of the Liberals province wide, this is a natural target. Also, Kingston is the kind of place that is particularly repelled by the Ford Nation stuff - so voters are likely to move to whatever party seems best placed to block Ford. Increasingly, that party looks to be the NDP.
07/05/2018 Joe
A good race, but PC's are vastly outperforming even their provincewide numbers in the East, where they're only losing the two in the middle of Ottawa - seats which are already close, too. Add that to the recent situation in Kingston and both progressive 'opposition' parties are getting blown out of the water here.
25/04/2018 GritBusters
Years ago, I would have pegged Ottawa Centre as being the most likely NDP pick-up in Eastern Ontario.
I still expect a surprise in that particular riding for a number of reasons, but Naqvi's personal popularity make it less likely to be an NDP pick-up than Kingston and the Islands, which is unfortunate because I really like Joel Harden.
Along with Ottawa Centre and Ottawa-Vanier, this riding is among the only nut in Eastern Ontario that Ford's PCs won't crack.
Let's go with the Dippers here.
21/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Still too close to call, but now 'not Liberal'; they're 5 points back of the NDP regionally, and the NDP vote tends to be focused in more urban ridings.
05/04/2018 C. H.
If the Liberals do as poorly as polls suggest they might, and with the NDP making gains at their expense in eastern Ontario, this could definitely go to the NDP. If the Liberals don't completely collapse, though, they'll probably keep Kingston.
25/03/2018 Innocent bystander
Re: 'borderline laughable' below.
Compared to the 2014 province-wide election results, the latest poll has the Liberals down 23 points against the PCs (+7 to -16), and down 11 against the NDP (+15 to +4).
A 3-way 'too close to call', but the best (only?) chance for both the Liberals and the NDP for a seat between Ottawa and the GTA.
20/03/2018 A.S.
It definitely *is* interesting how Kingston came to steal Ottawa Centre's projected-figure 'likeliest NDP seat in Eastern Ontario' status, though Gary Bennett blurs that particular picture now, DoFo or no DoFo. However, jeff316, when it comes to 'bad analysis', keep in mind that Jack Harris's St. John's redoubt had actually had a predominantly Progressive Conservative history. (An Avalon Peninsula vs the Rest Of Newfoundland thing, you see.)
19/03/2018 jeff316
Lordy there is some bad analysis here. The thing is Jack Harris was in a riding that had voted Liberal 45 times out of the past 50. Kingston is a riding that has voted NDP 1 time out of the last 50.
The NDP did well to do as well as they did last time around. No chef from Chez Piggy is going to out do the Mary-Rita effect against a self-styled progressive Liberal leader whose horned rims garner more voted from Kingston's sophisticated upper-middle-class intelligentsia.
Heck, this riding didn't just return John Gerretsen year after year - they just return his lacklustre son to Ottawa. If these guys can win, Kiwala will win forever.
13/03/2018 Stevo
'It is borderline laughable to think that the Liberals can lose their 13-point lead from last election to the NDP.'
As if 13 points is impossibly insurmountable! Please! Overturning that in a wave election is piddly. Ask Jack Harris how his 50-point lead over the Conservative and 63-point lead (!!) over the Liberal from the 2011 federal turned out in 2015.
Kingston is in play.
12/03/2018 MF
Kingston is a pretty highly educated and progressive city and one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province. It rejected the Conservatives even when Harris and Harper were winning big across Ontario. Doug Ford-style conservatism is even less appealing than a PC Party led by a more generic leader.
12/03/2018 MK15
With Doug Ford officially the PC Leader, we can now look at riding predictions for the general election, beyond the fog of the PC Leadership fiasco.
Ford representing the party will make an uphill battle for the PCs in this riding even worse. No matter who ends up in the Premier's office, this is a likely Liberal hold.
I'll concede a possibility of an NDP win if it's 1990 all over again, but at this early stage we're looking at a PC government with Kingston remaining Liberal.
12/02/2018 Anthony
Based on provincial polling trends (with PCs increasing support in the wake of Brown's absence), mixed with the popularity of former mayor Gary Bennett, there's a stronger possibility Kingston will go blue.
07/02/2018 Craig
Outside of the urban GTA and Ottawa, this is probably the only seat that the Liberals should safely hold. Very well educated + large government workforce = riding that tends to lean left. The NDP have traditionally been very weak in eastern Ontario, so while they might finish second, the Liberals should win by default.
Yes, this went to the PC's historically, but that was when they were very Red Tories - those kind of candidates would probably be Liberals today. The loss of rural votes in conservative territory north of the 401 also makes it easier to remain red. The margin may actually increase from 2014 as Kiwala has built up a presence here.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
It is borderline laughable to think that the Liberals can lose their 13-point lead from last election to the NDP. It is unlikely that they could lose a 22 point lead to the PCs. Even at rock-bottom popularity I think the best that any party other than LPO can hope for here is to just close the gap by quite a bit.
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
This has been safely in Liberal hands for over 20 years. The last time the PCs held it, Brian Mulroney was starting off his time as prime minister. I don't think this one is going to flip. Even with Liberal numbers being what they currently are, team red would have a good shot at holding on. I suspect that Liberal numbers will improve somewhat in the months to come. While there may be defeat in the Liberal's future, I don't see an implosion, and I don't see Kingston going for anyone else.
12/12/2017 seasaw
This one is going to stay Liberal. Even if the Liberals are reduced to single digit seats, this is one riding that they can count on winning
10/12/2017 teddy boragina
Even using the polls showing the PC Party with a wide lead, this riding only changes to a knife's edge. It will be a difficult win for Patrick Brown, and Kathleen Wynne may hold on if the polls change.

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