King-Vaughan

	BABITCH, TATIANA
	BEAL, ANDREA
	EVTUKH, ROMAN
	IAFRATE, MARILYN
	LECCE, STEPHEN
	LOCKE, GREG
	SIMKIN, YAN

Incumbent(s):

	Vaughan    Hon Steven Del Duca    (82.96% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Oak Ridges-Markham    Hon Helena Jaczek    (17.04% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			109235
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		17618	51.31%
		11084	32.28%
		3986	11.61%
		1022	2.98%
	OTHERS	627	1.83%
	Total Transposed	34337
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Vaughan
		14610
		8006
		3301
		620
	Others	510
	Total Transposed	27047
	Oak Ridges-Markham
		3008
		3078
		685
		403
	Others	117
	Total Transposed	7291
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Deb Schulte
		25908	47.40%
		Konstantin Toubis
		24170	44.20%
		Natalie Rizzo
		3571	6.50%
		Ann Raney
		1037	1.90%

	26/05/2018	The Hedonist 99.248.64.56
Lecce has run a vibrant campaign, heavy social media presence, Iafrate has been almost non-existant getting out on the ground here. Lots of blue signs, especially the further you go north. This riding does not have much of the 'stubborn old Italian Liberal vote' - that's more so in Del Duca's riding next door, this riding is more of upper middle class, not many semis/affordable housing here - lots of large lots, nuclear families, people who drive in to work - who the Liberals don't cater to. Let's not forget, this is also a classic bellweather riding and if PC's form the gov't they will win here. Fantino won during Harper's GTA 905 sweep of the 2011 Federal Election where he won a Majority.
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
No liberal incumbent advantage. Lecce running a strong campaign. The NDP stealing dissatisfied liberal support but not anywhere near enough to win. Easy PC gain.
	14/05/2018	Mittens Romney 192.197.82.153
This barely went for Trudeau in 2015. Vaughan-Woodbridge has a more stubborn Italian Liberal vote. King-Vaughan may have that, but considerably less. Other than Maple, the more rural parts, Kleinburg, and the rest of the riding will go PC heavily. Solid win for PCs.
	18/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
It's worth noting that a lot of the newest/fastest-growing stuff in the riding (most particularly, the sprawl betwixt Maple and Richmond Hill) went federally CPC in 2015; so who knows, had that election's dynamics endured another quarter decade, the whole seat might have Markham-Unionville'd itself--federally, never mind provincially...
	20/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
I think this is pretty ripe for the PCs to take. It's heavily Italian and pretty affluent but not 'elite' like St. Paul's or University-Rosedale. Doug Ford's businessman-populism is likely to play well here.
	11/03/2018	99.228.128.85
Not sure how Lecce is like Brown at all. Lecce is running a very visible campaign, he has bus ads up and strong social media. He is a hard worker. He is also very charismatic, something Brown lacked heavily. You barely see any presence from the Liberal candidate in this riding. Lecce will win this easily. People like him in Vaughan.
	06/03/2018	Steve 135.23.128.39
Lecce is Brown 2.0 and people know that. This will cost PC votes, so not sure who takes this one.
	14/12/2017	99.228.128.85
There is no reason at all why this is being predicted as a toss up. This riding will go PC. It includes the rural King township and the Jewish area of the riding by Thornhill. Yes, Maple tends to be more Liberal but in the federal election that is what barely pushed the Liberals in a red wave. The PCs are polling VERY high in York Region. This riding will go PC.
	11/12/2017	Andy 99.228.49.27
A PC walk. The Liberals are very unpopular in York Region and the PC's have a star candidate running, no contest.
	06/12/2017	Kathy 99.228.107.135
The PC's have a great local candidate in Stephen Lecce. Also, this riding only went Liberal federally by just a 1000 votes in what was considered a massive Liberal sweep. Liberals are not polling quite like that provincially. PC pick up.
	04/12/2017	99.228.104.19
PC pick up. Unpopular Liberals running against strong PC candidate Stephen Lecce.