Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Kenora-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:42:00

Constituency Profile







    Kenora-Rainy River
   Sarah Campbell

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):53027

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

2657 14.89%
5266 29.51%
9410 52.73%
513 2.87%
Total Transposed 17845

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kenora-Rainy River

Total Transposed17845

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


29/05/2018 Neutral Pundit
Leaning PC ever so slightly. The PCs continue to show impressive numbers in northern Ontario that are way ahead of 2014. The Manitoba-adjacent part of the province has been trending more conservative at both levels for some time, so if that trend is going to manifest itself to the point of flipping a seat somewhere, it's likely here. Liberal outflow votes are favouring the PCs over the NDP in the north, so even if the NDP wins the election outright, they may well lose this seat. A lot depends on what happens in the final week.
29/05/2018 The Lobster
I predict this riding will go NDP *but* I think it'll be close. If there is a single riding that the NDP currently hold and could lose, this would be it. NDP gains in northern Ontario compared to other areas of the province are relatively modest (see Grenier's analysis) while Tories are doing significantly better than 2014. And Rickford is popular. And there is no incumbant. So again, if there is a NDP-held riding that will be lost, this will be it.
At the end of the day, however, it's hard to imagine the NDP losing any ridings they currently hold, so I give them the (slight) edge.
5/27/2018 NJam101
A definite win for Glen Archer. The fact the PCs have no platform and Doug Ford's lack of knowledge about Northern Ontario are preventing Greg Rickford from even being competitive. Plus, a surge in NDP support ensures an NDP victory is a riding that normally votes NDP.
20/05/2018 The Jackal
With this NDP leading in the polls in Northern Ontario I have to say this riding will stay orange.
LISPOP lists this has a NDP win
18/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
I don't think I'm buying Rickford's personal appeal in being enough to pull this riding through, even on a rising provincial tide. Three years ago, (which is a long time in politics) Rickford was relegated to third place federally and even the much better known Howard Hampton was second. The NDP is polling very strongly up North; while the provincial trend would portend Rickford to have a reasonable shot at a good result, those same provincial trends also point to a surging NDP and the regional trends would only serve to further demonstrate that. The NDP has a much easier path to victory here than the Tories would have to overcome, so regardless of the rising blue tide everywhere else and whatever of Mr. Rickford's popularity, I have to give this one to team orange.
Local poll shows the NDP wining this riding...Liberals will be third
The NDP will lose this riding due to the previous MPP and due to the Tory Candidate...the blue wave will overwhelm the NDP here
06/05/2018 A.S.
If Rickford's well positioned, why not--sure, he finished third federally; but with the northern reserves now hived off into their own separate provincial entity, he could well have *won* within the present boundaries (that is, unless the addition of Fort Frances gave Howard Hampton compensatory hometown boost). It certainly helps that the provincial Tories are in better shape now than the fed Cons were in 2015--OTOH so's the ONDP compared to their Mulcairean fed counterparts. Also, I don't know what effect a post-Tanya Granic Allen anti-bozo-eruption climate might have out here in Lynn Beyak country. So, we're still wait'n'see at the prospect of a Ford-Pallister conservative-premiership geographic alliance...
30/04/2018 Andy M
John K Which opinion polls are you referring to?
The most recent data I have from the various polling firms show NDP support at 26, 21, 27, 21.3, 28, 20.7, 24. 20.7, and 18% averaging out to about 23-24%. Furthermore, when you look at the regional breakdowns, most polls in Northern Ontario with the exception of the IPSOS poll show the NDP down in the north by about 10% on average.
28/04/2018 John K.
With the NDP at 27-28% in the last 4 polls now, this will surely stay NDP. This is an area the NDP wins when they are at 18% across the province, so there is no doubt in my mind they will keep this, as long as they have an even somewhat credible candidate.
28/04/2018 NJam101
The NDP's candidate is now Glen Archer who lives in Kenora. It might be a good thing for him that he lives in Kenora because that is where the most votes have a chance of swinging to the PCs. Having a local person there as candidate may stop that swing to some extent if it happens. But don't forget that in 2014 most people even in Kenora voted NDP. Archer is a corrections officer who is heavily involved with the labour union he belongs to. He will probably be good in getting out the vote with those who don't want budget cuts. The NDP may end up gaining significant support across Northern Ontario if Doug Ford proves to be even more unappealing to Northerners.
Now about Greg Rickford: he is the best candidate the PCs could hope for. But his previous support was quite soft so it's not as though he is extremely popular here. It really depends on how the Ford campaign goes. Rickford has federal cabinet experience so that is one big plus for him.
As I mentioned before, the Liberal vote will be minimal which is good for Archer. There is a significant Indigenous population even without the previous Northern portion of the riding.
Strong support historically.
Matt Soprovich had hoped to become the NDP party candidate in Kenora-Rainy River for the upcoming election but in a Tuesday Facebook post he said that he was disqualified from the nomination race. PC will take this seat ...
15/04/2018 R.O.
Greg Rickford brings years of political experience to the race and is well known in the riding. The provincial polls aren
2018-04-1 Anthony
Another new poll by IPSOS shows the NDP leading in Northern Ontario with 45% support compared to 28% for the PC
05/04/2018 C. H.
While Rickford is locally quite popular and well-known, it would take a fair amount for the PCs to take this one from the NDP. However, their current poll numbers are about that amount, so if they don't slip up they definitely have a shot.
25/03/2018 jeff316
No Campbell? My mistake. Not even close. Winnipeg Greg is going to Toronto.
24/03/2018 NJam101
At this point I would give the NDP candidate the edge. It looks like it may be Matt Soprovich who is from Fort Frances. I also have to add that at this point it is very competitive and the PC candidate Greg Rickford certainly has a chance of winning. But Rickford can only do well if the Doug Ford PC campaign does well and the Liberal vote here doesn't shift too much to the NDP.
The PCs have their strength in Kenora and they will have to do very well there in order to win. The NDP won Kenora last time so it may not be as easy for the PCs there as some may think. Dryden is kind of a toss-up. It's less likely to vote PC compared to Kenora but the PC vote could increase there. Fort Frances voted heavily NDP last time and probably would again, especially if they have a local person as the NDP candidate. Former Ontario NDP leader Howard Hampton is from Fort Frances which means something.
The smaller places and rural areas tend to be NDP with a few exceptions but don't make up much of the total votes. You can bet that the Red Lake area will go NDP and probably Rainy River, Sioux Lookout and Ignace.
The big thing to watch is how Doug Ford's message is taken by people living here. Budget cuts scare many here and they don't take reductions in services well. Kenora has a strong connection to Manitoba which often shows up in voting patterns. The PCs never won here when Mike Harris was Premier but came close in 1995 in Rainy River when it was its own riding with disgraced Senator Lynn Beyak as candidate against Howard Hampton.
Many thought current MPP Sarah Campbell wouldn't win after Howard Hampton left politics but she won quite easily both times. Many former Liberal supporters have been voting NDP lately and probably will again this time.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
The Ford-Rickford Team will prove very popular here. Its a very big bandwagon.
20/03/2018 Stevo
In my previous message I meant to say '....not reflexively anti-Tory compared to points EAST of Geraldton'.
19/03/2018 Stevo
This is the only one of the 'big' Northern Ontario seats that the Harper Conservatives managed to win. Yes there is the rich NDP history here with Howard Hampton but it is not reflexively anti-Tory compared to points of Geraldton. Culturally it's more Manitoba than Northern Ontario. And with the former CPC MP running (duplicating the fed-defeat-turned-prov-victory attempt of Aileen Carroll), the Ford PCs have a very good chance of picking this up.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Campbell hold. The new riding makes it much easier to campaign in and bomb with money. This is a riding that knows it needs government money so Ford's appeal won't translate here the way it will in the Soo and Timmins.
13/03/2018 Demarcoa
Seems to me to be a likely NDP win. They're popular in this region, I don't see any reason as to why the redistricting would change that.
08/03/2018 Anthony
A recent poll that came out sampling Northern Ontario showed the NDP well ahead at 40% with the Conservatives at 27%, and the Liberals well behind at 16%. Under those circumstances the NDP should be able to comfortably hold all their Northern Ontario ridings, including Kenora-Rainy River despite Greg Rickford running for the Conservatives. Infact the NDP might even be able to gain seats from the Liberals like Sudbury and win the two new redistributed Northern Ontario seats.
28/01/2018 Craig
Under these boundaries, the seat becomes quite favourable for the PC's. They do decently along 11 and 17, but get annihilated once you move north of 17. Closer ties to Manitoba mean what goes on there plays somewhat of a role here too. With a former MP who is still fairly well liked as a candidate, Greg Rickford should be back in a job in June and give the PC's their first seat in Northwestern Ontario in over 30 years. Their main opponent is the NDP, although they have not yet chosen their candidate. The Liberals will likely finish a distant third.
If Vic Fedeli becomes the permanent leader, that may strengthen their position as well.
27/12/2017 seasaw
Sarah Campbell is not running and Greg Rickford is representing the PC's. It's a toss up for now, any one of the three parties can take this riding, the Liberals chances though are not as good as as the other two parties, they will only take this riding in case of a strong majority, otherwise it's going to be a race between the NDP and the PC's
17/12/2017 J.B.
The incumbent NDP candidate is not seeking re-election for family reasons, so this riding will flip, and I'm calling it for the PCs, unless Howard Hampton chooses to come out of retirement.
Greg Rickford, a former Conservative MP, won the federal Kenora riding in 2008 and 2011, before losing to another former MP in the federal 2015 Liberal sweep of NW Ontario.
Name recognition is crucial here, along with the strong anti-Wynne sentiment. Residents in this riding have a stronger relationship to Winnipeg instead of Toronto. If they feel that there's a PC momentum, they might just go with that.
Rickford's already got the ground game, and he should do well in Kenora and Dryden, while the NDP-Liberal support will split in the southern Fort Frances area. Also, the previous northern First Nations NDP support has since been re-assigned to the Kiiwetinong riding.
PC gain.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Most likely will go NDP, but with the NDP candidate not running again and former Conservative MP Greg Rickford running a PC win while not likely is possible. Had the old boundaries been used, it would be an NDP hold, but the northern parts which have a large aboriginal population have been lopped off and in the southern portion the PCs are much more competitive while usually get slaughtered in the northern half.

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