Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Humber River-Black Creek

Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:37:00

Constituency Profile










    York West
   Mario Sergio

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):108198

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11907 46.71%
2794 10.96%
9997 39.21%
418 1.64%
OTHERS 378 1.48%
Total Transposed 25494

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York West

Total Transposed25494

Federal Election Result (2015):

Judy Sgro **
Kerry Vandenberg
Darnel Harris
Keith Jarrett
Christine Nugent


03/06/2018 MF
Mainstreet did not have a 10 point lead for the PCs in Humber, but in fact showed a pretty close three way race with the PCs and NDP statisitcally tied and the Liberals just behind. However I find it difficult to believe that even with the Ford Nation juggernaut the NDP is down from last time. Furthermore I expect a collapse in the Liberal vote in light of recent events, to the benefit of the NDP.
31/05/2018 thebobert
Mainstreet poll of the riding puts the PCs ahead by 10+. Not surprising given that Ford took 63% of the vote in the 2014 Toronto election. Put this one in the PC column.
26/05/2018 SpB
PC's have never fared well in this riding. The race is between the NDP and the Liberals. Tom has a solid history of working for the constituents. Deanna used her legal skills in support of collection agencies. Not really seeing support for the disadvantaged and challenged in her career choices.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 16 on the Liberals in HR-BC, with the NDP trailing.
20/05/2018 Bza
The last election was fairly close and with the NDP going up, I think this one will as well, though it will be a close one. Will be interesting to see how the Ford Nation effect plays out.
19/05/2018 Christopher L
Very hard riding to predict because it's hard to know how much of the Ford Nation vote will translate over to provincial politics. I think the PCs will be way up here from last time, taking votes from the NDP but especially from the Liberals, but not quite enough to win. Thus they'll allow the NDP to squeak in, probably in a 35-30-30 type result.
19/05/2018 C. H.
Any seat in which the NDP was this close to the OLP in in 2014 should be going to them comfortably in 2018.
This riding will flip to the NDP...I note the LISPOP have said the NDP ear leading here...
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Finally a fresh Toronto poll. North York, compared to 2014:
Liberals -20
PCs +10
NDP +7
07/05/2018 KXS
Municipal support for Doug Ford will not be translated to a PC win in this riding. That is like saying a John Tory led PC party will win seats in downtown Toronto or a (hypothetical) David Miller led NDP winning Willowdale.
This is one of the weakest ridings for the Tories province-wide. It's been the case for generations.
NDP candidate Tom Rakocevic has been competitive over the last two elections. It will be a close one, but the NDP should be able to pick it up this year, due to Kathleen Wynne's unpopularity.
05/05/2018 K
Etobicoke and North York is considered Ford Nation Central. So typically this should be for the PCs right?
The following should be considered:
1. Left-leaning parties tend to do very well in ridings which either contains or is beside a university. York University is located in this riding.
2. The PCs and federal Conservatives are considerably unpopular in this riding. With Ford at the helm of the PCs, expect a boost in votes for PC.
3. The NDP and Liberals are fielding well-known candidates in this riding compared to the PCs who are fielding an unknown.
4. Tom Rakocevic, the NDP candidate for this riding, is more popular than the two other candidates by a mile. He is a well-known advocate for the people in this riding (especially for the poor, whom Ford is trying to win over), ran twice in this riding (lost each time but kept chipping away the Liberal lead), and also works for Anthony Perruzza, the Toronto City Councilor for most of this riding who is also popular in this riding.
5. The Liberals, by now, are very unpopular in Ontario. With the riding being a low-income area with sky-high hydro and auto insurance rates, people will want change no matter what.
6. Speaking of dissatisfaction, Deanna Sgro, the Liberal candidate, is dogged in a tax collection scandal. This would bring her popularity down by a bit. I say bit as in this won't affect her too much unless the two other candidates take advantage of this.
7. Cyma Musarat, the PC candidate, as mentioned earlier is practically unknown. With the election a month away (as of writing this), she would have to build her base quickly if she wants any chance of winning considering Rakocevic's popularity. I don't believe she is doing this because from the start of this year until now, I have received flyers to vote NDP and Liberal but absolutely nothing from the PCs. If she relying on Ford's popularity in North York, this is a questionable move as you could never know what Doug can or can't do. (To be fair though, election yard signs haven't been put up yet)
8. I live in this riding. I know all of this (in here at least).
With all things considered, I expect this riding to go to the NDP with Rakocevic's popularity likely going unmatched in comparison to Sgro's or Musarat's. However, I also expect this to be a very close race between the PCs and NDP. This riding is one of the many ridings that you must watch.
27/04/2018 Joe
Looks like a close, three-way race, with the Liberals who are weak in Toronto and have an unknown as nominee. They have fallen far in the provincial polls and the NDP isn't picking up any discernible steam. With Ford's widespread popularity, this is a close PC victory.
07/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The budget bounce for the Liberals lasted less than a week, and they've fallen back below where they were.
The Toronto breakdown polling is getting a little stale, but the Tories led the Liberals by better than 2:1 in North York ... when you consider that North York included most of the Liberal strongholds of DV East and West, the north of 401 ridings should all go PC.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
Latest Forum poll puts the NDP ahead of the PC in Toronto, and well behind the Liberals (Lib:NDP:PC 39:28:27). With that PC support locked up in Etobicoke and northern Scarborough ridings, I don't think the PCs are going to reach this one. Rather, I see them scavenging populist support from the NDP, preventing an NDP victory, but not enough to eke out a win for themselves. Unless DoFo and Co start doing better in the 416, they're going to be confined to a handful of ridings in Etobicoke and Scarborough.
23/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Doug is next door. His local affinity is remarkable. The attempt to create a Sgro dynasty here is just a bad idea and will go poorly.
21/03/2018 Demarcoa
With a crumbling Liberal vote, and little realistic way for PCs to make major inroads past their 10% vote share, I'm calling this race for the NDP.
18/03/2018 A.S.
Rakocevic's 2014 result, especially, might also be seen as judgment on Mario Sergio passing his political expiry date--not unlike Tony Ruprecht's near-upset in his final Davenport election in 2007. On paper more than in practice, it certainly would feed 2014-style anti-Horwath progressive cynicism if the ONDP gained the rock-hard Ford National former York West while losing Parkdale-High Park--of course, we shouldn't be viewing 2018 through a 2014 prism, should we? Speaking of Ford Nation, the prospect of a Con pickup of HRBC still carries a cast of the comical--then again, in a Ford/Trump era, *nothing* is too comical...
14/03/2018 Daniel
There has been NDP growth here election over election. Doug's mayoral support levels here in this riding were really about Rob and not Doug. The Liberal candidate here has had nothing but bad press, her shady past and discipline with the law society. I don't see this working class community voting for a former debt collector. If I had to call it I think this will go NDP by a small margin.
11/03/2018 Craig
Now that I look at this riding again and municipal results, I'm going to boldly call a PC pickup, despite the fact that there is no Tory history here. The NDP vote from the 2014 provincial election is likely a union-populist vote, not a social activist vote, so that is likely jumping from orange to blue.
Doug Ford demolished John Tory and Olivia Chow here in the last mayoral election, winning Wards 7 and 8 by wide margins (with a higher voter turnout too). In fact, this was his strongest area outside of Etobicoke North. There is a lot of hidden anger here at 'downtown elites' even if it is traditionally left-leaning voters involved. The controversies on Deanna Sgro may weaken the Liberal vote as well.
11/03/2018 JC
Doug Ford being elected PC leader will upset some long held assumptions for party strength.
Etobicoke North and York West are prime examples. These two ridings were two of the safest Liberal seats, electing Liberals with comfortable margin even during the 2011 Ignatieff meltdown. However, these two ridings are also where Doug Ford had his best performances in 2014 mayoralty race against John Tory.
York West was once the safest Liberal seats in Ontario, and the Sgro lastname does have strong brand loyalty. But with Doug Fort at the helm of the Ontario PC, I have a hard time seeing the Liberals holding on to this.
09/03/2018 Frances
From living in the riding almost a decade my sense is that the NDP candidate Tom Rakocevic will win this time. Has run in the past and is well known in the community as he also works for our Councillor.
Judy's daughter is also running but has a cloudy past with a discipline from the Law Society from her collection agency law practice that was deemed to have harassed people in error asking them to pay for debts, many of whom were seniors.
The PCs are never a contender here but their gains will take votes from the Liberal supporters. My older neighbours who traditionally have supported the liberal candidate say they are very upset with Kathleen Wynne so another reason I think it will go NDP here.
26/02/2018 Tory in Dixie
Toss-up between L and NDP. Would be surprised if PCs even got what would be a record-breaking 30% here, Ford or no Ford.
Municipal and Provincial are two different electoral animals - Doug Ford might have won the wards roughly corresponding to this riding in his bid for the T.O. Mayoralty almost 4 years ago, but provincially this is a different story. There is that much more on the table in provincial politics compared to the mayorality to seriously question whether a Doug Ford vote for Mayor 4 years ago will carry over to a Doug Ford vote for Premier this coming June.
If you look back 50+ years between York West riding (and the comparable predecessor Yorkview riding) it is very rare that the provincial PCs get over 25% here, (and often less than 20%). They never held Humber River - Black Creek/York West/Yorkview riding since the latter riding was created in the early 1960s. The only question in my mind is if the Liberals tank badly enough that the NDP take the riding (or alternately, if Ford does energize enough PC votes that it weakens the Liberals and the NDP become the ultimate beneficiaries).
06/02/2018 Craig
This is a difficult riding to predict at this time, with so many conflicting signs in this working class riding. Federally, it is extremely safe for the Liberals, and Judy Sgro's daughter is running to take the seat. Provincially, though, the NDP's strategy actually benefited them here in 2014 as they came close to an upset despite huge losses south of the 401. Municipally, this is the second best riding (outside their Etobicoke North home base) for the Ford family.
If Doug Ford is leader, this is probably a PC-Liberal race, with most of the NDP vote in 2014 jumping to Ford on populist policies (that would be deadly to them in more upscale ridings though). Under Mulroney or Elliott, the PC's are irrelevant here, and it would depend on the NDP. If they play the same strategy as in 2014, they might contend here, but it may be harder with the name recognition, minimum wage, tuition and pharmacare issues helping the Liberals.
06/02/2018 RD
Liberal candidate is getting some bad press: https://globalnews.ca/news/4007244/ontario-liberals-candidate-professional-misconduct/
This is a predominantly poor and working class riding. Maybe a candidate who has been professionally disciplined for unethical collection practices was not the best choice?
05/02/2018 Stevo
Formally York-West, this is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Canada federally, and in Ontario provincially. It cruised through the Mulroney, Harris, and Harper eras with barely a ripple, never waking from its Liberal torpor.
03/02/2018 Anthony
I think this will be an NDP win. Tom Rakocevic is a great candidate who has already ran here twice provincially against incumbent Mario Sergio and managed to significantly increase his vote margins despite the NDP
11/01/2018 seasaw
Deanna Sgro, the daughter of federal MP, Judy Sgro is going to win this riding. Sure the gap between the Liberals and NDP has gotten smaller over the years and it may even get really close this time but believe me the Liberals will prevail
04/01/2018 True believer
NDP candidate in this riding, Tom Rakocevic, looks like a real good contender since he is already very well known for his long dedication to the local community.
2017-12-24 Teddy Boragina
Don't under-estimate the NDP here. I lived in this riding for nearly a decade, and if the Tories do well across the province, it could allow the NDP to win even if the NDP vote does not move at all.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
I think this should be too close to call. The NDP candidate did surprisingly well here in 2014, and is running again. Is he personally popular or was he just in the right place in the right time for an NDP bump last time? This could be competitive with the incumbent gone now as well.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Federally this is a very safe Liberal riding, but provincially the NDP has done reasonably well here is this is the heart of the Ford Nation so more a blue collar populist type than downtown liberal elitist so yes Liberals are favoured but an NDP upset here cannot be ruled out. Tories may be competitive in neighbouring ridings, but not this one.
13/12/2017 Dr.Bear
Ever though the long time incumbent is stepping down, I highly doubt that anyone other than the liberals will win here. Both federally and provincially the liberals have held strong through good times and bad.

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