Hastings-Lennox and Addington

	HERRINGTON, LONNIE
	KRAMP, DARYL
	RIGBY, TIM
	SCHOLFIELD, GREG
	SMELLE, NATE
	WATSON, SARI

Incumbent(s):

	Prince Edward-Hastings    Todd Smith    (54.80% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington    Randy Hillier    (45.20% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			92528
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		11359	31.22%
		14430	39.65%
		8346	22.94%
		2053	5.64%
	OTHERS	201	0.55%
	Total Transposed	36390
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Prince Edward-Hastings
		5620
		8436
		4086
		973
	Others	201
	Total Transposed	19315
	Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
		5740
		5994
		4261
		1080
	Total Transposed	17075
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Mike Bossio
		21104	42.40%
		Daryl Kramp **
		20879	41.90%
		Betty Bannon
		6348	12.70%
		Cam Mather
		1466	2.90%

	29/05/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
No NDP movement + Liberal collapse = Tory win.
	5/28/2018	Guy Incognito 76.64.169.99
It's not really clear why you would change this riding to 'too close to call,' unless you were swayed by an ill-informed Global News article over the weekend. There's nothing in polling or lawn signs suggesting this will be any different than a Kramp rout.
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
Just to point out that the vote split in this riding is quite similar to the vote split in Huron-Bruce, which is listed as TCTC. Should NDP start surging in eastern Ontario, like they are in SW ONtario, then this race becomes competitive. Nothing like that happening now.
	18/05/2018	SS 24.212.154.103
Seems pretty safe PC hold, but I wonder if the NDP surge could put them over the top here. The NDP have always had a decent third showing here (in 2011 federally they came in second) and if the Liberal vote really does empty in favour of the NDP, I wonder if this could potentially come into play as a PC-NDP race. Nonetheless, the NDP have a long way to climb before seats like this become possibilities, so I'd say safe PC for now, but one to keep an eye on.
	18/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
If the defeated Daryl Kramp bidding for the same seat provincially leaves a feeling of deja vu, why not: it's around these parts where, back in 1995, Bill Vankoughnet became the only former Mulroney/Campbell Tory MP within Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution caucus. That's definitely something worth noting.
	22/03/2018	165.225.76.198
ANOTHER defeated federal Tory running provincially, and almost certain to win in this rural seat. Is this a new thing - defeated fed MPs immediately running provincially, or vice versa - or has this always happened? I can't recall an election with so many such examples. In addition to Kramp, there's Rickford, Parsi, Calandra....any others?
	16/01/2018	Neal 104.249.228.37
Mike Bossio winning federally was a complete fluke and speaks only to the convergence of the death spiral of the Tory campaign and Trudeaumania 2.0 in the last two weeks of the campaign. he squeaked in by 225 votes. After 13 years of disaster under the Liberals this will NOT happen in HLA provincially. Daryl Kramp will be easily elected here. As of yet, the Liberals haven't even nominated anyone. Whoever they do nominate will be a sacrificial lamb.
	20/12/2017	Dr. Bear 75.119.248.107
A surprise and narrow loss for Daryl Kramp in 2015. He will win his seat back in 2018, albeit he's going to Toronto as opposed to Ottawa. The provincial Liberals have very little chance of acquiring new rural seats this time around.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This was probably the biggest shock in the last federal election when the Liberals won this, but considering the riding's history and that Wynne is not nearly as popular as Trudeau while Brown is less polarizing than Harper, I suspect Darryl Kramp will have no problem picking this up.
	11/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.