Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hastings-Lennox and Addington

Prediction Changed
2018-05-31 00:52:00

Constituency Profile









    Prince Edward-Hastings
   Todd Smith

   (54.80% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   Randy Hillier

   (45.20% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):92528

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11359 31.22%
14430 39.65%
8346 22.94%
2053 5.64%
OTHERS 201 0.55%
Total Transposed 36390

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Prince Edward-Hastings

Total Transposed19315

     Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington

Total Transposed17075

Federal Election Result (2015):

Mike Bossio
Daryl Kramp **
Betty Bannon
Cam Mather


29/05/2018 Innocent bystander
No NDP movement + Liberal collapse = Tory win.
5/28/2018 Guy Incognito
It's not really clear why you would change this riding to 'too close to call,' unless you were swayed by an ill-informed Global News article over the weekend. There's nothing in polling or lawn signs suggesting this will be any different than a Kramp rout.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Just to point out that the vote split in this riding is quite similar to the vote split in Huron-Bruce, which is listed as TCTC. Should NDP start surging in eastern Ontario, like they are in SW ONtario, then this race becomes competitive. Nothing like that happening now.
18/05/2018 SS
Seems pretty safe PC hold, but I wonder if the NDP surge could put them over the top here. The NDP have always had a decent third showing here (in 2011 federally they came in second) and if the Liberal vote really does empty in favour of the NDP, I wonder if this could potentially come into play as a PC-NDP race. Nonetheless, the NDP have a long way to climb before seats like this become possibilities, so I'd say safe PC for now, but one to keep an eye on.
18/04/2018 A.S.
If the defeated Daryl Kramp bidding for the same seat provincially leaves a feeling of deja vu, why not: it's around these parts where, back in 1995, Bill Vankoughnet became the only former Mulroney/Campbell Tory MP within Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution caucus. That's definitely something worth noting.
ANOTHER defeated federal Tory running provincially, and almost certain to win in this rural seat. Is this a new thing - defeated fed MPs immediately running provincially, or vice versa - or has this always happened? I can't recall an election with so many such examples. In addition to Kramp, there's Rickford, Parsi, Calandra....any others?
16/01/2018 Neal
Mike Bossio winning federally was a complete fluke and speaks only to the convergence of the death spiral of the Tory campaign and Trudeaumania 2.0 in the last two weeks of the campaign. he squeaked in by 225 votes. After 13 years of disaster under the Liberals this will NOT happen in HLA provincially.
Daryl Kramp will be easily elected here.
As of yet, the Liberals haven't even nominated anyone. Whoever they do nominate will be a sacrificial lamb.
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
A surprise and narrow loss for Daryl Kramp in 2015. He will win his seat back in 2018, albeit he's going to Toronto as opposed to Ottawa. The provincial Liberals have very little chance of acquiring new rural seats this time around.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This was probably the biggest shock in the last federal election when the Liberals won this, but considering the riding's history and that Wynne is not nearly as popular as Trudeau while Brown is less polarizing than Harper, I suspect Darryl Kramp will have no problem picking this up.
11/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.

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