Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-02 23:39:00

Constituency Profile











   Ann Hoggarth

   (67.44% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Julia Munro

   (32.56% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):101584

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13733 37.51%
14243 38.91%
6211 16.97%
2131 5.82%
OTHERS 290 0.79%
Total Transposed 36608

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed24340


Total Transposed12268

Federal Election Result (2015):

John Brassard
Colin Wilson
Myrna Clark
Bonnie North
Gary Nail
Jeff Sakula


02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
The Liberals got lucky with this seat last time. Now with this seat combined with Innisfil, a Conservative area plus the Liberals running so low. It'll be a PC pickup
5/28/2018 Simcoe Guy
I live in this riding and I can assure everyone that the Tories will win this riding.
27/05/2018 The Hedonist
Don't know why this is still TCTC.
This is a traditional Tory riding, and considering how poor the NDP showed last election, PC will take this one.
Innisfil is a growing community of middle class families, spilled over from Vaughan who got fed up of the overpopulation. These votes will further help the PCs.
27/05/2018 Eric S
The Conservative support in this riding is too strong. Even in the last federal election when the Liberals swept across Canada, the Barrie-Innisfil riding went blue. The NDP will most likely come in second place here on Election Day. If the PC campaign pushes the vote out, expect candidate Andrea Khanjin to win this riding by a good size margin.
26/05/2018 Smartypants
Pretty sure if the PCs ran a monkey in this riding it would win. If the Liberals or NDP somehow win it will be because of Ford, the Brown fiasco, and an incredibly weak local candidate.
25/05/2018 DM
Strong NDP candidate and campaign weak tied to Patrick Brown PC candidate. No chance for Liberals. NDP have a good chance in this riding.
25/05/2018 Some Random Barrie Guy
It seems like an attempt is being made to sway this by some NDP insiders. A few points to consider:
1) The NDP & Liberals together are at approximately 1 / 8th of the PC signs in Innisfil (the most
25/05/2018 Harris
This will go to the PCs. All I see are blue signs everywhere and everyone I know in the riding is voting for the PC candidate.
5/24/2018 Coxon
There is no question that this riding will go Blue. The PCs have painted this riding blue with signs and Andrea is out every day knocking on doors. No chance of any other party winning.
5/22/2018 Jason Johnson
This will go Tory blue as will all of Simcoe County. There is a push for the NDP in other parts of Ontario but I don't see how the Tories don't win this riding.
Bank on Barrie-Innisfil going blue.
22/05/2018 The Fish
I think with the increase in NDP support in the latest polls, it seems clear the anti-Ford vote is converging around the NDP. I think it's time to give them another chance. Electing Ford will not serve the lower or middle classes or the environment. Keep a progressive in power, and keep building Ontario up. Given that is will be unlikely that anyone will form a majority government this time any severe excesses should be muted.
19/05/2018 M. Washburn
Also every metric, including electoral history (the riding is currently held by a Liberal) indicates that the NDP's Pekka Reinio is the front runner here. He has more signs out by far, an engaged volunteer staff, and the momentum of their leader. As anti-Ford sentiment continues to rise, so does Pekka's chance at a major victory here.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
Everybody has already forgotten all about the sleazy former PC leader and sometime Josef Goebbels lookalike Patrick Brown. Tory slam dunk.
28/04/2018 A.S.
By opting for the more 'difficult' yet Patrick Brown-less Barrie riding only to see Brown blown outa the picture, Ann Hoggarth must be the political epitome of 'd'oh!'--but hey, points for perseverance; and Innisfil might, too, have swung Lib-ward had it been part of the present riding in 2014 rather than York-Simcoe. At this point, too, maybe Hoggarth can hope that Horwath can open a gap by stealing the 'Innisfil populist' vote, much as the NDP did in 1990...
19/03/2018 Stevo
The Liberals' transit message is possibly what made them surprisingly competitive in Barrie in 2014, a city full of commuters who spend hours seething on the 400 every day. The Liberals have indeed announced upgrades to the GO line, but will it be enough to save them in a traditionally Conservative seat? Doubtful.
14/03/2018 Johnny S
Ann Hoggarth is a weak incumbent MPP for Barrie. I don't see how she will win the Barrie-Innisfil riding which has many Conservative voters (look at the federal riding results) who voted in favour of Doug Ford in the PC leadership. I have no doubt that the PC candidate, Andrea Khanjin, will turn this riding Tory blue in a landslide. Hoggarth is looking like she is headed for one-term.
25/01/2018 Teddy Boragina
If Hoggarth has any political sense at all, she will withdraw as candidate for this riding and run in Barrie North.
24/01/2018 Tough Race
The incumbent here is going to lose. This race comes down the the PC candidate (whoever that may be) and the newly named NDP candidate Pekka Reinio. If the PC front runner (Bubel) wins, he can lean on his experience working for PB and JB in various staff roles. Pekka is a strong candidate with a tremendous knowledge of both local and provincial issues. He is well spoken and has an incredible work ethic. No one will knock on more doors than the NDP candidate this race. If it just came down to hard work I'd give it to the NDP but the reality is that Barrie-Innisfil is a blue stronghold and you can be sure PB will be here more than a few times.
27/12/2017 A BCer
Probably the more Conservative of the two new Barrie ridings. We don't know yet who the PC candidate will be, but I'm going to guess that incumbent Liberal MPP Anne Hoggarth is going to lose to him, particularly with PC leader Patrick Brown running next door. Look to this riding for a stronger result for the Greens, with fairly experienced candidate Bonnie North running for them.
15/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Unpopular Party? Check!
Unpopular Leader? Check!
Candidate saying stupid things? Check!
Hoggarth might have fancied her chances marginally better in Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, but not after Patrick Brown decided to run there.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
In what was a bad election for the Tories federally, they still won this by ten points. The south side of Barrie tends to be more conservative than the north and the rural areas are solidly conservative so even when Barrie was a single riding it was probably going to be an uphill battle for the Liberals to hold it while splitting it means barring the PCs doing something really stupid, they should easily pick this up.
Unpopular Liberals and riding next to Patrick Browns....PC pick up.

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