Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

	BALFOUR, GENE
	CRAMP-WALDINSPERGER, BROOKLYNNE
	MACMILLAN, CHUCK
	MILLER, ZAC
	RHYNO, THOMAS
	SCOTT, LAURIE
	THERIEN, LYNN

Incumbent(s):

	Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock    Laurie Scott    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			110182
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		16872	35.27%
		19278	40.30%
		9635	20.14%
		2048	4.28%
	Total Transposed	47832
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
		16872
		19278
		9635
		2048
	Total Transposed	47832
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Jamie Schmale
		27718	44.80%
		David Marquis
		19634	31.80%
		Mike Perry
		12012	19.40%
		Bill MacCallum
		2470	4.00%

	5/29/2018	MF 50.101.245.26
Yeah, I know the NDP won Haliburton in 1990. But the situation today is very different as the PCs were the third party. I'd be stunned if they actually take this in a race where the PCs and NDP are both vying for first place. Should be an easy PC hold.
	26/05/2018	RD 192.0.141.94
Global News has identified this as one of the 20 closest ridings in Ontario based on its review of public and private polls. And it says the NDP is narrowly leading! Will Zac Miller, a 20 year old poli-sci student, get to put his studies to work with a job as MPP before he even graduates? Stay tuned. https://globalnews.ca/news/4228557/david-akin-20-closest-ridings-ontario/
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
Interestingly the vote split in this riding is not too dissimilar from the split found in Huron-Bruce. If NDP numbers in the east were the same as the current numbers are in the SW, then I would be calling for this to be TCTC. No such thing happening now, so safely in the PC column.
	20/04/2018	R.O. 24.146.17.189
Laurie Scott has been mpp for some time and well liked here in what is normally a conservative riding
	19/03/2018	A.S. 207.164.79.93
If you want a measure of how badly the Hudak campaign bombed in 2014, Laurie Scott was reelected with a quarter percentage point less vote share than John Tory earned in his ill-fluted 2009 byelection bid. Little likelihood of that now, though.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is a very safe PC riding, only went Liberal in the 2009 by-election as John Tory was seen as a carpet bagger and this riding generally doesn't like Toronto politicians. Laurie Scott has deep roots in this very blue riding so easy PC hold.
	11/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.