Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Etobicoke Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:56:00

Constituency Profile










    Etobicoke Centre
   Yvan Baker

   (93.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Peter Z. Milczyn

   (6.58% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):114910

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22694 48.70%
15104 32.41%
5368 11.52%
1223 2.62%
OTHERS 2210 4.74%
Total Transposed 46600

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Etobicoke Centre

Total Transposed46600


Total Transposed2937

Federal Election Result (2015):

Borys Wrzesnewskyj
Ted Opitz **
Tanya De Mello
Shawn Rizvi
Rob Wolvin


06/06/2018 Lrr
PC win by a mere thousand but they win, Andrea made it closer because of her pathetic attacks on Doug and the children
05/06/2018 PopcornLover
Green Party Candidate just endorsed Yvan Baker, and most polls have the Libs and PCs pretty tight in the election that might put them over the top
04/06/2018 Ralph
The last local polling that I saw had this riding in a dead heat with the Liberals and PC around 34% and the NDP at 30%. The real question in this riding is whether or not the Liberal vote collapses to prevent a Doug Ford win or do they hold with the incumbent who still has a chance.
01/06/2018 Kevin TO
Not sure why this hasn't been proclaimed a PC victory. The NDP is largely non existent here with a pretty weak candidate. There are way more PC signs than Liberal signs almost 2 to 1.
Ontario Liberal Party to release recording of Doug Ford, Etobicoke candidate Kinga Surma..reported by Global News
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 13 in Etobicoke Centre, with NDP and Liberals in virtual tie.
20/05/2018 Kevin TO
I see a ton of PC signs in this riding I'm pretty confident it will go blue.
20/05/2018 George
This riding isn't really at risk of suffering from a left split and never really has been. Ford is definitely appealing to some right leaning Liberals but I expect that Baker, who has strong local support, will be able to pull out a close win despite the Ford influence to the north. The PC candidate Surma isn't really impressing many and there are rumors she's been pissing off homeowners with illegal signs without asking
17/05/2018 MarkTO
This riding can swing Conservative if the Liberals are doing badly enough, and that's what the overall trend is this election. Look to the 2011 Federal election for the closest parallel, when it swung Conservative by a few hundred votes.
10/05/2018 Danny
Mainstreet polled Toronto a couple of days ago and had the PCs first in the 416 with 36.6% of decided and leaning voters. Those votes are coming from *somewhere*. Etobicoke, Ford Country, is the best place to start looking. The Liberals might hold Etobicoke Lakeshore with Minister Milczyn, but they won't hold this seat with relatively unknown Baker.
07/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal budget bounce was short-lived, and they ended up worse than they stood previously.
That, and the fact that the PCs were polling 50% in Etobicoke last summer, long before there was any thought that a local boy could be the leader, point to a PC victory.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
This will be the first riding to be declared for the Tories on June 7.
Baker is unknown and the Ford Phenomenon will steamroll him and lots of Toronto Libs. His 300,000+ votes in the mayoralty will translate into seats that Tories couldn't dream of winning without him. This is one that they could win without him.
20/03/2018 jlee
Even though Etobicoke is considered as a Ford Nation, It is still not safe to predict that the PC will win this.. Municipal and provincial politics are different
19/03/2018 jeff316
Can you really large swaths of voters that voted for Yvan Baker voting for Doug Ford or the NDP? I don't. That means the PCs need to really chip away at the Liberals to win this. It won't be easy.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
Etobicoke is Ford country.
17/03/2018 A.S.
The Ford family's home riding (half of which Doug Sr represented at Queen's Park), it's just that 'tradition' dictates they must represent Etobicoke North (that, plus the fact that the family homestead actually was in Etobicoke North until 2004, and its old boundaries were grandfathered into the family's Ward 2 fiefdom). A classic case of a traditional Tory seat which post-Mike Harris disgust turned Liberal--in fact, a general ambivalence t/w Fordian crassness also explains why Doug Jr's focused northward instead; keep in mind that not only did Etobicoke Centre split the mayoral vote btw/Ford and Tory, DoFo didn't even win his home poll. So, instead, it's a bright young former municipal constituency assistant for Peter Milczyn (hey, moderate cred!) bearing the Tory standard vs a bright young first-term former constituency assistant bearing the Liberal standard. If we're looking at *any* scenario involving a Tory gov't (even a quicksand-built minority attempt at the same), this should be an all too obvious pickup--but you can never tell with Ford bumbling...
11/03/2018 Craig
Clearly a tossup between the PC's and Liberals right now. Had Doug Ford not won the leadership, this would probably be safe for the Liberals, but a real wrench has been thrown in. It really depends on the strength of the Ford vote in working class areas vs. the Liberal vote in the more affluent parts of the riding, as Etobicoke Centre features a bit of both.
Both Wards 3 and 4 were very close in the 2014 municipal election, which should be a good indicator on what happens in June. We also don't know the PC candidate yet (maybe time to recruit Doug Holyday on home turf?). The NDP should be irrelevant.
11/03/2018 JC
Doug Ford being elected PC leader will upset some long held assumptions for party strength for sure. However, the expectation that he will clean the clock in Etobicoke will likely be unmet. Yes, he did very well in his/Rob Ford's home turf of Etobicoke North Wards 1 & 2 in 2014, but he actually lost three of the other four wards in Etobicoke.
Etobicoke Centre has some history of voting blue, and is more likely to go Conservative than Lakeshore. For now, I think it is too close to call.
14/02/2018 Dr.Bear
Definitely TCTC. If Doug Ford wins the leadership race, this goes PC. If Doug Ford loses the leadership race, and does not go crying back to his mother's basement, and runs as a candidate, then the PC will probably take this seat. Remove Doug Ford from the equation, or have him crying foul because he lost and everyone was mean to him, then the Liberals keep it.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
If the PCs pick up any Etobicoke seats, this is their best chance but at this point still too early to tell. If PCs in the final week are trailing or ahead by less than 5 points than definitely stays Liberal. PC lead 5-10 points provincially leans Liberal but possible PC pickup. PC lead 10-15 points provincially likely PC pickup and provincewide lead over 15 points definite pick up.

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