Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:32:00

Constituency Profile







   Taras Natyshak

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):120477

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

6369 14.33%
9677 21.77%
26807 60.31%
1593 3.58%
Total Transposed 44445

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed44445

Federal Election Result (2015):

Tracey Ramsey
Jeff Watson **
Audrey Festeryga
Jennifer Alderson
Enver Villamizar


24/05/2018 Dr. Bear
This is a Taras Natyshak riding. It took him a few tries but he is now a popular incumbent. Couple that with NDP polling at or near 50% in SW Ontario and we're looking at an easy win.
13/05/2018 KSouthWest
The NDP will win, almost certainly more narrowly than before. The riding is a suburban one, more white and well to do financially than most Ontario ridings,with a growing 3rd party representation fatigue; which should make it an easy PC win. However, Tim Hudak did lasting damage to the PC brand here when he campaigned against Unions and government funding to automakers. The incumbent is popular here.
19/04/2018 A.S.
I'll predict the following: the NDP share will fall, perhaps significantly; and the PC share will rise, perhaps significantly. But given how far apart they are already, that won't be enough for an upset--just a sort of 'normalization', not unlike what happened in Hamilton last time. Even Natyshak must realize that 60% in 2014 marked laughing-gas levels of support, and the ghost of Jeff Watson looms eternally...
14/03/2018 MF
As is the case with Wayne Gates in Niagara Falls, Taras Natyshak is a locally popular MPP in a working class rust belt riding that would likely otherwise be prime territory for Doug Ford.
13/03/2018 Stevo
Although the NDP is probably unbeatable here (though never say never; remember the lesson of Jack Harris in Newfoundland, federal election 2011 vs 2015), I believe Doug Ford will goose the PC numbers here for a strong 2nd place showing. I believe Essex is likely to be the worst seat in the province for the Liberals at sub-10%. And this in what used to be a rare rural Liberal stronghold to the extent that it remained red throughout the Harris years.
09/01/2018 Craig
While this is not the stronghold for the NDP that the Windsor seats are now, they should win this one easily for several reasons.
First, Taras Natyshak is personally very popular. Second, the more moderate and urban-focused agenda the PC's have pushed may not be popular among local conservative-minded voters, who may stay home especially considering it would be a challenge for them to top the NDP. Third, Andrea Horwath seems most interested in blue collar issues among the three leaders. Fourth, the Liberals are completely irrelevant here (they may fall below 10%), and there is no danger of a vote split - even 45% of the vote may not be enough for the PC's, and that had been a traditional high-water mark here.
All things considered, this should be safe for the NDP.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is perhaps one of the few if not only ridings in Ontario where the federal Tories have a better shot of a pick up than they do provincially. If it was a generic candidate, this would be a tight one, but Taras Natyshak is extremely popular personally which will be more than enough to put him over the top. Things might tighten a bit but unlikely to flip this riding. Liberals have more or less imploded south of London and are on life support south of Kitchener so despite their history in this riding, they are irrelevant.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
The NDP cleared 60% last time - it would take a complete collapse to make the riding competitive.

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