Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:11:00

Constituency Profile










   Jeff Yurek

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):110109

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

8748 19.97%
20649 47.14%
11489 26.23%
2159 4.93%
OTHERS 755 1.72%
Total Transposed 43800

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed43800

Federal Election Result (2015):

Karen Louise Vecchio
Lori Baldwin-Sands
Fred Sinclair
Bronagh Joyce Morgan
Michael Hopkins
Lou Bernardi


01/06/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal vote has collapsed, and it appears they all went Tory. Not even close ...
5/29/2018 Nysuloem
Although I would love to see this riding flip to NDP, having driven around a large swath of this riding over the past few days for various reasons, it's clear that this riding will stay PC. Doug Ford himself visited the riding at the start of the campaign, something very few leaders have ever done in the past (this has to be one of the most ignored ridings in the province), and, despite not really knowing where he was, that will leave a positive impression on people here.
27/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Unless we see the NDP reaching majority territory, I'm certain this will stay with the PCs. The liberal did not have much support previously, so NDP numbers aren't going to be as buoyed as elsewhere; the bleeding from the PCs has been much slower (and that's where the pool of support is located); and a PC incumbent gives team blue an advantage. I say blue, but will reassess in the next week or so.
25/05/2018 LISAM
Liberal stronghold? The constituency was Liberal from 1934 until 1945 and for three years in the 80s. The Tories held the seat for 42 years, from 1945 until 1987,and then again after redistribution.
25/05/2018 Demarcoa
Likely PC hold, given the general climate of the election.
23/05/2018 London Mike
Given the most recent polling, and from what I'm seeing and hearing on the ground, I'd move this to too close to call. I never thought I'd say that, but the NDP support is still climbing here, at Rob Ford's expense. Perhaps weight for another polling cycle, but this one just may be in play between Amanda Stratton and Jeff Yurek.
18/05/2018 Bza
Likely a PC hold, since the candidate is likely to get 50%+ of the vote.
17/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Even with all of the Liberal support from 2014 going NDP (or vise versa), this still would require a significant drop in PC support to suggest this goes anything but blue.
5/16/2018 UsedToBeGreen
This seat is still the PCs to lose, but the NDP, who finished second last time around are clearly closing the gap. They have a great candidate in Amanda Stratton, and the Liberal vote is collapsing here just like everywhere else. This one have the chance to get very close and come down to the wire.
19/03/2018 A.S.
For all of Mitch Hepburn's legend, Elgin actually *isn't* much of a Liberal stronghold--in fact, it was provincially Tory all the way from the Hepburn era to the David Peterson landslide. (And from 1999 to 2011, it was arguably a Steve Peters seat before it was a Liberal seat.). As for Yurek, he lost less ground than your average Hudak Tory btw/ 2011 and 2014 so it's safe to say he won't be going anywhere soon.
17/03/2018 Craig
This seat might have been remotely competitive if Mulroney or Elliott was leader. Except, that is not the case and Doug Ford is much more popular with this riding's primary demographics. That is especially true in Elgin and rural Middlesex which have become bastions for populist-conservatism despite having a long Liberal history.
The NDP was likely the strongest competition here, but that has been significantly undercut. Like in most of SW Ontario, Kathleen Wynne is hated here, and Yurek is moderately popular. But even a generic PC candidate would be strongly favoured under these circumstances. PC's should win easily with about 55-60% of the vote, with the NDP a distant second and the Liberals irrelevant, likely in the low teens at best.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Like much of Southwestern Ontario, this was once a Liberal stronghold, but today is one of the safest PC ridings in the province so easy PC hold even if they lose the next election.
It is pretty safe to say Jeff Yurek will hang on to his seat if he managed to last election.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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