Elgin-Middlesex-London

	BARRETTE, HENRI
	FORSYTHE, CARLIE
	MORGAN, BRONAGH
	PLUMB, DAVE
	STRATTON, AMANDA
	STYVE, RICHARD
	YUREK, JEFF

Incumbent(s):

	Elgin-Middlesex-London    Jeff Yurek    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			110109
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		8748	19.97%
		20649	47.14%
		11489	26.23%
		2159	4.93%
	OTHERS	755	1.72%
	Total Transposed	43800
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Elgin-Middlesex-London
		8748
		20649
		11489
		2159
	Others	755
	Total Transposed	43800
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Karen Louise Vecchio
		28023	49.20%
		Lori Baldwin-Sands
		17642	31.00%
		Fred Sinclair
		8771	15.40%
		Bronagh Joyce Morgan
		1783	3.10%
		Michael Hopkins
		529	0.90%
		Lou Bernardi
		185	0.30%

	01/06/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The Liberal vote has collapsed, and it appears they all went Tory. Not even close ...
	5/29/2018	Nysuloem 135.23.237.9
Although I would love to see this riding flip to NDP, having driven around a large swath of this riding over the past few days for various reasons, it's clear that this riding will stay PC. Doug Ford himself visited the riding at the start of the campaign, something very few leaders have ever done in the past (this has to be one of the most ignored ridings in the province), and, despite not really knowing where he was, that will leave a positive impression on people here.
	27/05/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
Unless we see the NDP reaching majority territory, I'm certain this will stay with the PCs. The liberal did not have much support previously, so NDP numbers aren't going to be as buoyed as elsewhere; the bleeding from the PCs has been much slower (and that's where the pool of support is located); and a PC incumbent gives team blue an advantage. I say blue, but will reassess in the next week or so.
	25/05/2018	LISAM 198.166.214.5
Liberal stronghold? The constituency was Liberal from 1934 until 1945 and for three years in the 80s. The Tories held the seat for 42 years, from 1945 until 1987,and then again after redistribution.
	25/05/2018	Demarcoa 192.0.165.46
Likely PC hold, given the general climate of the election.
	23/05/2018	London Mike 24.54.95.158
Given the most recent polling, and from what I'm seeing and hearing on the ground, I'd move this to too close to call. I never thought I'd say that, but the NDP support is still climbing here, at Rob Ford's expense. Perhaps weight for another polling cycle, but this one just may be in play between Amanda Stratton and Jeff Yurek.
	18/05/2018	Bza 142.229.115.110
Likely a PC hold, since the candidate is likely to get 50%+ of the vote.
	17/05/2018	Dr. Bear 45.72.146.253
Even with all of the Liberal support from 2014 going NDP (or vise versa), this still would require a significant drop in PC support to suggest this goes anything but blue.
	5/16/2018	UsedToBeGreen 67.69.138.228
This seat is still the PCs to lose, but the NDP, who finished second last time around are clearly closing the gap. They have a great candidate in Amanda Stratton, and the Liberal vote is collapsing here just like everywhere else. This one have the chance to get very close and come down to the wire.
	19/03/2018	A.S. 207.164.79.93
For all of Mitch Hepburn's legend, Elgin actually *isn't* much of a Liberal stronghold--in fact, it was provincially Tory all the way from the Hepburn era to the David Peterson landslide. (And from 1999 to 2011, it was arguably a Steve Peters seat before it was a Liberal seat.). As for Yurek, he lost less ground than your average Hudak Tory btw/ 2011 and 2014 so it's safe to say he won't be going anywhere soon.
	17/03/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
This seat might have been remotely competitive if Mulroney or Elliott was leader. Except, that is not the case and Doug Ford is much more popular with this riding's primary demographics. That is especially true in Elgin and rural Middlesex which have become bastions for populist-conservatism despite having a long Liberal history. The NDP was likely the strongest competition here, but that has been significantly undercut. Like in most of SW Ontario, Kathleen Wynne is hated here, and Yurek is moderately popular. But even a generic PC candidate would be strongly favoured under these circumstances. PC's should win easily with about 55-60% of the vote, with the NDP a distant second and the Liberals irrelevant, likely in the low teens at best.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Like much of Southwestern Ontario, this was once a Liberal stronghold, but today is one of the safest PC ridings in the province so easy PC hold even if they lose the next election.
	09/12/2017	99.228.128.85
It is pretty safe to say Jeff Yurek will hang on to his seat if he managed to last election.