Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-06 09:02:00

Constituency Profile









   Mike Colle

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):113150

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22855 54.80%
14079 33.76%
3060 7.34%
1305 3.13%
OTHERS 407 0.98%
Total Transposed 41706

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed41706

Federal Election Result (2015):

Marco Mendicino
Joe Oliver **
Andrew Thomson
Matthew Chisholm
Ethan Buchman
Rudy Brunell Solomonovici


06/06/2018 The Lobster
I can't deny Colle's long-standing status will be helpful, nor is this territory Ford-style Conservative. Having said that, even if the Grits get eight seats (their goal), this doesn't seem to be one of them. This has been one of the easier pickups for the Tories in Toronto in recent years and there aren't enough factors going in the other direction to make me change my mind. Trends too strong for local factors to turn the other way. Tories by 5-8%.
The Green prediction is amusing.
05/06/2018 Mortatella
The Green Party is strong here, I saw two signs, very prominent although on City property. I feel strong about a green victory here. greens by a mile
03/06/2018 QuebecCityOliver
I find this fascination with lawn signs interesting. I remember the Orange Wave in Quebec City clearly and I drove through a rural Conservative riding (which they eventually hung on to by less than a thousand votes (his majority in 2015 was almost 18,000 - and he is a local farmer) - The NDP went from 13.2% (2008) to 38.5% (2011) and back down to 14.8% (2015) - I saw 2 signs for the NDP in 2011.
The collapse of the OLP is a wave or contagion and it is continuing to spread. The irony is that the OLP has said in the past 4 elections that a vote for the ONDP is a wasted vote, well now voting Liberal is a wasted vote. You run the risk of electing a PC candidate instead of an NDP one. I understand that this is not an absolute certainty - some places in Toronto could be such that even in a 3-way race the PC candidate always loses to another party but I am not sure Wynne's desperate move will stem the bleed, I think it will open the wound further.
02/06/2018 Alessandro Ricci
Its going to be close but Colle took the Italian vote for granted without doing much, while Robin Martin has been door knocking for the past few years and listening to the voters.
Based on number of signs in the Orthodox area I have a feeling that the Orthodox turnout will surprise many this Election. So i predict it going PC by 5 percent.
02/06/2018 Kevin TO
I did a drive across Glencairn Ave from Caledonia Rd to Avenue Rd. Total property lawn signs counted. Liberal-42. PC-34. The NDP were a distant third with anywhere from 6 to 9. This is a 2 horse race. I figure PC probably have a bit more support in the corridor east of Avenue and west of Yonge. Plus I think those undecided voters will swing their way come election day. PC's win by less than 3 points.
01/06/2018 MF
Even in light of the current race with the Liberals headed for a catastrophic result, I think this will be one of their few holdouts. First of all, Mike Colle is personally popular and does the "community rep" thing very well. Second, this riding just isn't very "Fordian" at all but more of a "John Tory Liberal" one - remaining Liberal support I suspect is strongly concentrated in ridings where Tory did well. I just don't see the PCs under Ford making major gains in North Toronto or in the Jewish community. While it's possible the PCs narrowly win if the Liberals sink low enough, I suspect it'll look like a 40-35-20 spread between the Liberals, PCs and NDP.
29/05/2018 Joe
This is keeping in the PC column. They are running a great local campaign, all indicators point to a runaway victory. Liberal wipeout also happens in Eglinton Lawrence
27/05/2018 MBM
I took a long walk through this riding this morning and did a sign count starting from Avenue Road and Eglinton, going north to Wilson, east to Yonge Blvd and south to Yonge & Eglinton. Excluding businesses, I counted 27 PC, 25 Liberal and 7 NDP signs along the route. The riding seems too affluent for any anti-Ford sentiment to work in the NDP's favour. I think it boils down to whether Mike Colle's recognition and incumbency will be enough for him to survive the pending Liberal wipeout or will the Red Tories / Blue Liberals in E/L who are tired of Wynne hold their noses long enough to vote Tory. Given that the CBC poll tracker now shows the Liberals projected to win just THREE seats in Ontario, it may be time to move this into the 'too close to call' column.Sent:
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I say voters will be voting for Mike Colle and not the OLP. Colle has personal appeal that 'embarrassed liberals' will support. Closer, but Mike survives the implosion.
5/22/2018 Joe
PC's came relatively close last time around and are overperforming in Toronto. Experts say models give PC win of close to 20% and most are inclined to believe them.
5/22/2018 Bza
I don't see Mike Colle having the same fate as Joe Volpe and losing in a PC-NDP wave. Colle is a very popular local MPP, and has done a lot of high-profile private members bills.
Will be much closer though, could see a less than 5% margin of victory with the PC candidate.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Too close to call. The three main parties are all within the margin of error of the Campaign Research poll of Toronto.
20/05/2018 Kevin TO
I think this riding is a toss up. Been noticing an increasing number of PC signs, particularly in the east portion of the riding.
20/05/2018 Long term resident of Eglinton-Lawrence
We are at the Yonge St. side of the riding, Support for Colle is still in place but not as strong as in past. I get the impression the established Liberal support is not willing to vote for 'Ford' vs. voting for change with the PC's.
19/05/2018 The Jackal
As this point I will call this a PC pickup as the Tories are leading the polls in North York and look to pick up quite a few seats
5/17/2018 gosens
This may seem like a long shot. And maybe it is. But the east end of this electoral district, upper middle class to lower upper class professionals as well as civil servants, will not support Ford and there is little to no swing vote for the PCs here to begin with. On the other hand, these people don't like Wynne anymore and there is a huge opening for the NDP.
West end never voted PC, and the NDP already had some strength. Colle's incumbency is strongest here but the NDP can challenge.
That leaves just the middle of the riding, orthodox community will vote PC but have low voter turnout; PC swing vote will be soft for Ford but again won't vote Liberal.
Lib in the west with some NDP, PC in the middle but not enough, NDP now in the East and I can smell an upset.
13/05/2018 Joe
This is a strong PC flip and has been thought of as one for some time. Pretty much impossible for either party to come back at this point.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio, so a likely Tory pick-up.
05/04/2018 C. H.
Maybe not Ford territory, but has gone Tory before and is one of the more reasonable pickups for the PCs if they're doing as well as expected in the 416. Will almost certainly stay Liberal if they gain back some of their lost support, though.
20/03/2018 MF
With Doug Ford leading the PCs, Mike Colle should easily be re-elected in this riding with a lot of affluent, highly educated 'elites and establishment' types. Ford will almost certainly underperform among Jewish voters as well, even if the Orthodox polls around Bathurst and Lawrence Avenue stay PC. Whatever leakage to Ford west of the Allen Expressway will be offset by a much larger decline in the PC vote east of the Allen.
15/03/2018 Stevo
This part of central Toronto went 60%+ for John Tory for mayor. Needless to say, this is not fertile ground for 'Ford Province'. The Jewish vote will always provide some Conservative strength but that demographic isn't large enough to make things truly competitive here, at least not this time.
18/03/2018 A.S.
Colle or no Colle, if the Tories are polling overall in the 40s with the Liberals in third, Eg-Law *should* be vulnerable. (And of course, the morph of the Jewish vote invalidates any federal 'Liberal since inception until 2011' arguments.) Ford over Elliott naturally relieves some of that pressure--at least relative to WASPy North Toronto, if not the Bathurst 'Jewish zones'. That is, unless the west-end heart of Italo-Canadian 'Colle Liberalism' decided to follow its municipal Ford Nationalist muse instead...
11/03/2018 JC
With Ford at the helm of the PCPO, this seat remains a safe seats for the Liberals. He posted one of his worst results in the eastern Eglinton-Lawrence wards (16) in 2014. The western half of the riding, with high concentration of older Italian voters, is where Colle traditionally did well.
19/01/2018 Craig
I agree that the federal results aren't a great indicator. This riding is a lot like Thornhill (although not to the same extent) in that the Jewish vote has become a strong voting bloc for the federal Conservatives based on their strong pro-Israel stance. Provincially, that is not a significant factor.
Mike Colle is still very well-liked in this affluent, educated riding, and those demographics have been heavily trending towards the Liberals. Hence, they should easily retain this seat, although it isn't the fortress some adjacent seats are.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
The only genuine shot of the PCs picking this seat up is if Colle retires, a poor candidate replaces him, and the Libs melt down in the broader campaign.
08/01/2018 MF
Is Mike Colle running for re-election? He has a strong machine and is quite personally popular in the riding. I would give him the edge. Even Joe Oliver, in his failed attempt at a political comeback, didn't think he could beat Colle in the riding he represented federally and opted to run for the PC nomination (unsuccessfully) in a neighboring riding.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Liberal call might be premature here. We do not even know if the Liberal incumbent is running for re election here. This is one of the better seats for the PCs in Toronto and based on their current polling levels in North York they would win it.
21/12/2017 seasaw
To all those who use the recent federal elections results to predict what's going to happen provincially, remember, on the federal level this riding was Liberal since inception in 1976 until 2011 federal and only 2 of them were not landslides. Recent success of the federal Tories was primarily because of Mr Harper's pro Isreal foreign policy, and this riding has a significant and influential Jewish community. Provincially this has been close only once in '07 and that was because of the school funding issue which was popular in the Jewish community. The PC's have a better shot of winning at least fifteen 416 ridings before they win this.
17/12/2017 The Jackal
If the numbers stay the way they are or spike a bit for the PC's this will be a pick up for them.
This riding will of course be a contest. It went Blue federally before, and Mike Colle doesn't have the luxury of being in cabinet. Combine that with the PCs polling almost tied with the Liberals in Toronto and in North York the PCs are consistently ahead. I agree it wont be easy but if the PCs win a majority they are taking this riding with them.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this one so quickly for the Liberals. In the past it was a safe Liberal riding, but recently it has been one of the most favourable ridings in the 416 to the Conservatives. Otherwise if the PCs make any breakthrough in the 416 this will be one of the first to fall to them. Only if they get shut out or win fewer than 3 seats in the 416 will this stay Liberal so the Liberals can hold this, but it is far from a lock. After federally the Tories got over 40% here and in all likelihood they will probably do somewhat better provincially thus why too early to call this.
11/12/2017 seasaw
No contest here, the Liberals are going to take this one

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster