Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Dufferin-Caledon


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:32:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

CAMPBELL, LAURA

GORDANIER, BOB

HARRIS, JEFF

JONES, SYLVIA

MCKENDRICK, STEPHEN

MULLARKEY, ANDREA

NOWELL, C. ANDREW


Incumbent(s):
    Dufferin-Caledon
   Sylvia Jones

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):116341


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13861 30.66%
18017 39.86%
5269 11.66%
7518 16.63%
OTHERS 538 1.19%
Total Transposed 45203

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Dufferin-Caledon

13861
18017
5269
7518
Others538
Total Transposed45203


Federal Election Result (2015):

David Allan Tilson **
2797746.30%
Ed Crewson
2364339.10%
Nancy Urekar
44337.30%
Rehya Yazbek
43987.30%


 

02/06/2018 PM
174.115.69.77
Safe PC riding. Prediction hasn't changed at all this election, nor should it. Battle will be for 2nd place. One of the few (yet growing) riding's where the Greens might finish 2nd & also get over 20% of the vote. Then again the NDP might benefit the most here and finish 2nd. Either way, it will be a distant 2nd.
18/05/2018 Bza
142.229.115.110
Although the Liberals got within 10% last time of winning, the PC candidate will likely widen that margin. Will be interesting to see who would get 2nd place with the NDP doing well in the polls and this being a riding where the Greens have done well.
06/05/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
(nb: I meant 'Dufferin County' when I said 'Durham County'. And the 2008/2011 figured alluded to are federal, not provincial)
05/05/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
For the record, this is one of the three Green '15 percenters' going into this election (the others being Guelph and Parry Sound-Muskoka); and in 2014, they actually succeeded in winning a number of polls in northern Durham County--but the overall inherent Tory strength's too great; and re the prospect of second place, GPO'd be hard pressed to overcome the vestigial Liberal-exurban advantage in places like Bolton. Maybe like 2011 (or even 2008, practically!), we'll be seeing all three opposition parties bunched up in the teens...
24/04/2018 Crash D
67.21.155.9
Every election prediction for this riding has the PC's win in a landslide. Its a forgone conclusion, right? But ask yourself, what has Sylvia Jones done in her 10 years as MPP. Nothing. As well, as Deputy Leader of the PC's during the Brown scandal, she said or did nothing about the rot throughout her party. She MUST have known of the impending allegations against Brown. She must have been aware of the corruption going on all around her. Her boss Dougie Ford even went so far as to say he witnessed ballot stuffing at nomination meetings. And no one said a thing until the sex scandal rumours against Brown could no longer be contained. This says a lot about her performance. Maybe its time for some new ideas. The Liberals will not do as badly as some predict, and if the unpredictable Ford scares off enough voters, an upset could be in the offing.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
John Tory and Ernie Eves both used this riding as a stepping stone to entering the legislature so fairly safe. Liberals have come close to winning a few times, but never pulled it off unless the right is split like it was in the 90s.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.



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