Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Don Valley East

Prediction Changed
2018-05-29 09:47:00

Constituency Profile









    Don Valley East
   Hon Michael Coteau

   (61.44% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Don Valley West
   Hon Kathleen O. Wynne

   (38.56% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):93007

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18508 58.73%
7670 24.34%
3768 11.96%
1060 3.36%
OTHERS 507 1.61%
Total Transposed 31512

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Don Valley East

Total Transposed18102

     Don Valley West

Total Transposed13410

Federal Election Result (2015):

Yasmin Ratansi
Maureen Harquail
Khalid Ahmed
Laura Elizabeth Sanderson


06/06/2018 Stevo
DVE will come down to the wire, but I would say it leans PC. Btw, why are DVE and DVW classified on this site under Old City of Toronto instead of under North York?
06/06/2018 The Lobster
As popular and strong a candidate as Minnan-Wong is, Liberal resources, history, and sheer demographics should allow Coteau to (barely) hang on, as the sole re-elected Grit in the 416.
MC should take this by about 5%.
Based on LEGAL signs, NDP has candidate Ahmed has shown respect to the city and bi-law. Its a shame to see cabinet minister (Liberal) and city consuller (PC) BOTH are not following the city rules. Michael Coteau stop putting signs on construction fences and on intersections blocking my driving view - shows a sign of desperation to winning. NDP has my and my family's vote
04/06/2018 One Voter
Liberal Candidate Michael Coteau has been using voice recording software to solicit votes this year. It's annoying. He has not made much appearance in the riding since last provincial election. Mr. Coteau is nothing but a disappointment. So, my prediction is that the PC candidate is more likely to come out this time.
Based on the signage in my area and the chatter in the coffee shops, it looks like Coteau will come out on top. Michael has been very high profile in the riding and in Ontario, winning a large majority last time. Times have changed but many are anti Ford and Ahmed is not a household name except that he has tried before elsewhere to get a toehold. My bet is on Coteau.
29/05/2018 Hameed
Since the liberal polling went down to 24% the only option in this riding is NDP. The PC party is not a popular choice in this riding. More over Khalid Ahmed seems to be working hard and has responded the residence questions very well during the debates. Michael Coteau though he is popular in this riding but due to the liberal party
29/05/2018 Terry
NDP has a much bigger shot than any other candidates in this riding. With recent polls leaders poll along with NDP candidate's presence in the riding (door-to-door canvasing and signs), I predict he has super great shot.
29/05/2018 Michael Thompson
Clearly NDP will be winning this time around. I feel the orange wave coming. Biggest fear is votes split between Liberals and NDP resulting PC to take the seat. Given the recent polls with NDP at 57% (leading all other parties), residents will not take the chance of splitting votes and collectively vote for NDP.
I'm curious as to who's writing these predictions. Do any of you live in our riding? I've lived here for almost twenty years and voted liberals for the last twenty years. This year me, my friends and neighbors will be voting for the NDP. They are the only party that can prevent Doug Ford from becoming Premier. I haven't seen Micheal or Denzil at my door. I've seen the candidate from the NDP. He's gonna get my vote and Don Valley Easts vote.
29/05/2018 Joe
Coteau is running out of steam and Minnan Wong is an exceptionally strong campaigner. This has been longtime predicted in favour of PC people and it will definitely stay that way.
25/05/2018 Demarcoa
I have difficulty imagining even with the Liberals low polling they would lose such a wide margin. It's possible, but I feel it's still unlikely.
5/24/2018 Laurence Putnam
Recanting my previous Liberal call. At this point it seems clear that every poll which comes out has the Liberals hitting a new low. Now hovering around 20% as opposed to the 30% they started out the campaign with, it is fairly clear that we are headed for a 1993 federal PC-style massacre at the polls. While the NDP vote won't be overpowering in this riding, vote splitting is likely a factor here to some extent. It is now entirely feasible that the Libs are quite possibly looking at a caucus of fewer than 12 members, and when you ask yourself which 12 seats are most likely to vote Liberal, while this one might be near the bubble at that point, I don't think it looks likely anymore. This is looking like a '95 style election where the PC's will win this time only to be very likely to lose it in four years.
23/05/2018 Joe
The PC's have recruited a great nominee in Minnan-Wong for their party right here, and their inherent strength in the York area will push the PC party through.
23/05/2018 KXS
If the Liberals are reduced to five or six seats, this will probably be one of them.
It seems like the Liberal bleeding has stopped at around 22-23% province wide. But if they continue to slide, then the PCs and Minnan-Wong can pick this up.
If Del Duca and Naqvi lose their seats, Coteau could be a frontrunner to lead the Liberal rump.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 12 on Liberals in Don Valley North, with NDP trailing.
5/16/2018 Innocent bystander
Stevo: If the NDP over-perform among defecting Liberals, you could end up with the Liberals winning with something like a 35-33-27-5 split.
Based on the breakdown in the last Toronto-only poll, if you count this as a 'North York' riding, the Tories should win in a romp, but if it's an 'Downtown' (Toronto + York + East York) riding , the Liberals can hold on with a greatly reduced majority.
15/05/2018 Stevo
Innocent bystander's logic seems a bit off. Surely if the NDP overperform in DVE, that will all but assure the Tories of a win here? The NDP certainly can't win this seat but they can absolutely play spoiler.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
I like Denzil Minnan-Wong and would love to see him get elected, but I have a feeling here that DVE will be as cruel to him as DVW was to the Mayor. I certainly expect a strong result here for the PC's, but would tend to think this stays Liberal, even if by a greatly reduced margin. 80% chance for the Liberals, 20% chance for the PC's.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43% ... they bleed red ink slower than that.
City-wide, disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio.
If the NDP doesn't out-perform that in DVE, it's a likely PC pick-up, but too close to call for now.
20/04/2018 Sage on the Hill
Potentially close race. Aside from being Deputy Mayor what has Denzil accomplished for the past 28 years? Michael can point to many in the past 15 years. Picking up Flemingdon Park will only help the Liberals and Donway West is a wash. Harris, Eves, Tory (that's why he lost to Wynne) and Hudak all stayed away from Don Valley. I'll bet Ford concentrates on Scarborough and let's his 'buddy' DMW fight it out.
21/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Anybody who thinks that Michael Coteau has a greater profile than Denzil has no business making prognostications. Are you kidding? This is among the first Liberal ridings to go. It wouldn't be surprising that some more affluent areas might buck the Ford trend but less wealthy people are clearly going to Doug.
18/03/2018 A.S.
DVE's had a recent history of unlikeable Con bids, and DMW-for-DVE doesn't necessarily break that pattern--even if, this time, there's a chance of it being winnably so (esp. if the DoFo effect sways the Flemingdon vote). *A* chance. Versus Coteau, DMW'll need anti-Wynne-cabinet momentum on overdrive. Of course, if it works, he'll be a cinch for Ford's cabinet. Trivia: DMW's made this bid once before (federally, in 1997)
14/03/2018 MF
Don Valley East wasn't a particularly strong area for Ford in the municipal election (kept below 40%), nor is there much of a traditional NDP vote to siphon off votes from the Liberals. City councillors have run for the Tories and lost before, DMW's fate probably won't be any different. And Michael Coteau seems pretty well liked. This could Conservative in a big landslide, but for now I'm marking this as a Liberal hold.
07/02/2018 R.O.
Regardless of who the pc leader is, Denzil Minnan Wong is a high profile candidate for the pc.
30/01/2018 Stevo
Denzil-Minnan Wong should have tried for Willowdale, not here. He'd be a formidable, competent MP but city-dwellers vote for party over individual candidates most of the time. Short of a PC landslide (and now with the leadership chaos, that is unlikely), this should stay Liberal.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Liberals have been able to slay big conservative names in this riding before, and I do not think Denzil Minnan Wong will change much. It is even less safe than the previous iteration of the riding, gaining Flemingdon Park and losing the more Chinese, conservative parts north of the 401. Coteau is well liked and I think the seat is safe for him.
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
Denzil Minnan Wong will make this race interesting, but unless the provincial Liberals pull off a 2011 style collapse, they're unlikely to be overtaken in DVE.
15/12/2017 seasaw
It doesn't matter who the PC's run here, they'll be hard pressed to win this riding, even if they win a majority. It has to be a major blue wave for the PC's to win here. Why ? Because the Liberals have only gotten less than 50% once in this riding and the PC's have gotten over 30% only twice and one of them was with a high profile cabinet minister, Dave Johnson. There are at least 10 other ridings that will go Tory before this one does
14/12/2017 ML
Toronto deputy mayor and local councillor Denzil Minnan Wong is seeking the PC nomination for this riding. If he gets the nod, he might be able to take away the riding from the high profile incumbent and cabinet minister Michael Couteau.

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