Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-09 09:12:00

Constituency Profile












   Lisa MacLeod

   (59.16% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   Jack MacLaren

   (40.81% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Ottawa South
   John Fraser

   (0.03% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):89522

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11057 27.96%
20990 53.09%
4870 12.32%
2315 5.85%
OTHERS 308 0.78%
Total Transposed 39540

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed23671

     Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Total Transposed15870

Federal Election Result (2015):

Pierre Poilievre
Chris Rodgers
Kc Larocque
Deborah Coyne


09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
The PC candidate may or may not be qualified for the position, I really don't know. Certainly the previous poster makes some good points which would be reasonable cause for concern. However...and this may not be the best argument in favour of democracy, but the truth is that the average voter isn't going to care. Even the worst candidates may do enough damage to run a deficit of 10 points behind their party, and that isn't going to matter here. The Liberals would have to run Mother Theresa to make up the 2-1 disadvantage based on the 2014 results, and that is not going to happen in this election.
05/05/2018 A.S.
Carleton *at large* isn't all that Romney/Clinton or Tory/Remain--remember that this is mostly territory that stuck by Larry O'Brien for the Ottawa mayoralty in 2010--though as Poilievre's federal close call indicates, it's *getting* there with growth, enough maybe to flip it had the 2015 federal election happened in 2018. But this is a *provincial* election; and given polling, at this point any DoFo-generated sag would be shallow at best, even with the candidate controversy taken into account. Keep this in mind: according to transposed figures, this'd be 2014's third best Tory seat after R-N-P and Leeds-Grenville.
01/05/2018 seasaw
The PC support is about 8-15% higher now than in any poll taken in the last election. If they won it then, they will win it now, regardless of candidate
16/03/2018 Craig
Conventional wisdom suggest this is a safe PC seat, but I'd be very cautious here - a series of circumstances mean that the Liberals may have a very rare pickup opportunity.
First, without Doug Ford, there would be no contest here. However, a large part of this riding is in affluent and highly educated areas (i.e. Stittsville, Manotick, south Gloucester). Eastern Ontario is the one region where he is more of a liability than an asset. While they don't like higher taxes or big government, they also don't like cultural populism in those areas. That would be classic Romney-Clinton or Tory-Remain country. Had Elliott or Mulroney won the leadership, this seat would be in safe hands.
Second, there are many controversies over the nominations. There are a lot of sour grapes in the PC riding association, and some may decide to stay out. Ghamari isn't the most popular candidate either. The more rural areas are more socially conservative like the surrounding counties, so while they might be somewhat more receptive to Ford, they don't have their preferred candidate either.
However, can the Liberals get to near 50% with these boundaries and win? Since the NDP are irrelevant, that is what it will take.
31/01/2018 JC
PC candidate Goldie Ghamari, a political unknown who won the PC nomination with tacit support from the Patrick Brown crew, is now getting all sort of attention and not for good reason.
When she was nominated in July 2017, incumbent MPP Lisa MacLeod, who is also the senior PC member in the region, made her doubts about Ghamari known, 'I not only believe the current candidate will not win but worse, if she does win, she will not be a suitable representative for my constituents who I remain loyal to.'
See: http://ottawasun.com/2017/07/25/reevely-intra-conservative-battle-in-carleton-spills-into-the-open/wcm/3780fe83-b001-422d-bdcc-0cf65f6fae2e
And then, just as the party is dealing with the Patrick Brown implosion, she managed to draw attention to herself by making the bizarre allegation, initially cryptically, that ' a sitting #PCPO MPP harassed me, intimidated me, & used his body to bully & scare me out of getting involved in politics.' As if to create suspense and solicit more attention, she noted that 'My story breaks tomorrow.' Randy Hillier promptly acknowledged the encounter, denied any physical contact but nonetheless apologized. As it turns out, the alleged 'intimidation' was merely this question, 'Are you Goldie from Nepean? Are you running against Lisa?
See: http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-ontarios-pcs-investigate-candidates-physical-intimidation-claim-against-mpp-randy-hillier
Story doesn't end there. After local CFRA radio host Bill Carroll (who actually attended a fundraiser for her previously) criticized her on this bizarre story (Carroll being a PC supporter, the criticism was fairly mild, telling her to be thicker skin), she apparently a CFRA staff to go tell Bill Carroll 'F- you', who facetiously responded on air by saying 'this is bullying behaviour...'
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nPDF8xXNko
This should be a safe PC riding, but with a candidate like Ghamari, the Liberals may just get an unexpected break. Keep in mind, golden boy Pierre Poilievre barely retained his federal seat here...
30/12/2017 Dr. Bear
If both the provincial and federal conservative parties can hold this riding in disappointing elections (2014 & 2015), then they will hold it again in 2018.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is normally a very safe PC riding and despite being part of the Ottawa area is still largely rural and small town in its feel as opposed to suburban. Federally it was only close as Harper really angered the federal civil service who campaigned strongly against him. Asides from 2015 federally, this is one where the Tories regularly top the 60% mark so win or lose province-wide they should easily win this one.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Being largely rural and outer-lying suburbs this has been a very safe PC riding which they have normally never had any trouble winning. Yes it came close to going Liberal federally, but Harper's bad relations with federal civil servants as well as Pierre Polievere being an obnoxious and polarizing type figure is the main reason which you won't have provincially.
Conservatives held this seat federally in not the greatest election for them. PCs will get this seat easily.

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