Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-04-28 10:39:00

Constituency Profile










   Hon Eleanor McMahon

   (99.21% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (0.79% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):120569

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

23690 43.37%
20181 36.94%
7880 14.43%
2265 4.15%
OTHERS 611 1.12%
Total Transposed 54628

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed54309


Total Transposed319

Federal Election Result (2015):

Karina Gould
Mike Wallace **
David Laird
Vince Fiorito


06/06/2018 Daniel B
Traditionally a conservative riding for nearly 100 years (albeit many changes to boundaries etc). Burlington is mainly middle/upper-middle class in private sector roles. Very few government employees outside of some institutional/municipal/regional. Even with influx of new residents mainly from Mississauga/Toronto it wont be enough to move the vote left. Particularly, these new residents are upper middle class, educated and work in the private sector.
05/06/2018 MF
The strong showing for the NDP is interesting. Burlington does have some decent urbanity and it's certainly not 'Fordian', nor is it as affluent and NDP-averse as Oakville. So definitely a strong second place but unlikely enough to win unless the NDP somehow surges into majority territory.
05/06/2018 John David
Andrea Horwath visited Burlington today. Sure, she is understandably doing a blitz of last-minute riding visits to garner support, but the last time an NDP leader visited Burlington at all was Bob Rae. So, while not completely unprecedented, this visit shows a new confidence in their Burlington candidate, and in their chance for a possible victory here that they haven't shown in decades. The political climate of this election is such that anything could happen. Many people won't truly decide how to vote until they are staring at the ballot in their hands. But while Burlington may want to vote PC, I don't believe they want to see Ford in power, and this conflict could make events on the 7th very interesting.
04/06/2018 Dr. Bear
Maybe it's because I have a science background that I find this particular concept easy to understand, but I'm going to try and explain this as best I can: 41 does NOT equal 34. That is NOT 'just about tied', that is well outside the margin of error trailing (and that is if we believe the numbers provided, which I do not). If this kind of mathematical gymnastics is indicative of the NDP, it's surprising that the costing error in their platform was only 1.4 billion dollars.
For those of us who do not have a cult-like fervour for all things orange (and try to step out of our echo chamber every once in awhile), we can see that the PCs are well ahead in Halton and are probably going to sweep the four seats here. We also know that left of center vote will be split preventing either the OLP or the NDP from overtaking them. We also know that the NDP surge has stalled last week and, while numbers are holding, does not seem to be advancing further. With all this in mind, should the NDP reach 30% in Burlington, it will be unprecedented and a well-deserved moral victory (I think the NDP could get that much). However, win outright? Yeah, I'm going to continue to scoff at it. That's the last word I have for this riding (I do have other things to do this week), at least until the next electionprediction-go-round (at which time I will make some snarky comments about NDPers thinking they could win Burlington). But know this; if on Thursday the NDP win Burlington, I will be genuinely impressed, and I will raise a glass to your hard work, saying 'Well done NDP! Well done!'. Doubtful though.
03/06/2018 QDW
A new Mainstreet Research riding poll out today for Burlington puts PCs 41, NDP 34, LIB 18. The NDP isn't tying the Liberals, they're just about tied with the PCs. In fact, given the PC bias that Mainstreet Research typically has in their polls, they probably are tied with the PCs. To all of those who have been scoffing at the idea that the NDP could ever have a chance here, it's time to open your eyes. This is real data that shows the NDP are in the running for a win in Burlington for the first time ever.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
The model is showing Burlington to be safely in the PC column, though NDP support is unprecedentedly high (tied with the Liberals). No the NDP won't win but could come surprisingly in second.
26/05/2018 ARR
After canvassing today in Mountainside with NDP Candidate, Andrew Drummond, it was very clear that many voters are or are leaning NDP. People were coming up to the candidate on the street to tell him that they have never voted NDP before but will be doing so in this election. As to signs as mentioned in an earlier comment, I suggest you take a closer look. Andrew Drummond NDP signs are all over the city. I personally put up 40 today myself. This riding is a close race between the NDP & PCs.
26/05/2018 John David
@ Kyle H, you must only be spending time in the Lakeshore or the wealthy parts of downtown. Many neighbourhoods have plentiful Drummond signs with MacMahon having virtually none at all. In Pinedale, Palmer, Mountainside, and Brant Hills Drummond outnumbers MacMahon 4 to 1. Even in Longmoor, Shore Acres, and Dynes where McKenna is strong, Drummond is easily second place. A Drummond Revolution? Perhaps not. But writing off the NDP based on the past and a specific segment of the city would be naive. Whether or not the NDP win here, they will certainly surprise us in this election.
5/24/2018 Christopher L
Yeah, I don't see the NDP winning here - they might break 20 or 25% but this just isn't an NDP-friendly kind of place. Like other reasonably wealthy parts of the 905, it's a broadly centre-right sort of place, and disaffected Liberals are much more likely to move to the Tories than they are to the NDP. With the Liberals down so much across the province, I think this will easily move into the PC column.
5/24/2018 Kevin
Even with the NDP on the rise, Burlington is still a PC-Liberal battle. With the Liberals tanking in the polls Province-wide, the PC's are cruising to a victory here. Drive around town, and you'll see Jane McKenna lawn signs outnumber the others 10-1 if you don't believe me.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
The NDP are seeing increased support in the 905 but it is localized in places such as Brampton, Oshawa and Durham. As well, most polls lump Hamilton and Niagara into the 905 mix and that's where a the NDP are getting their robust numbers. No, Burlington is going to keep their right of center slant, likely swinging PC and sneering across the bay at their Hamiltonian cousins voting NDP.
I'm saying TCTC at the moment because I have a hard time seeing Burlingtonians(?) rah-rah-ing DoFo's name, and I wonder how many 'embarrassed liberals' are going to hold their nose and vote red.
5/22/2018 QDW
The latest polls have the NDP picking up huge momentum in the 905 - to the point where they're actually in the running. While I never would have thought it possible that Burlington could go orange, there is clearly mounting support. If the upswing continues, voters looking for alternatives to the Liberals and Ford may feel the NDP is a viable option for the first time. I wouldn't be so quick to write off the NDP. They are already surprising us in this riding and in the surrounding areas, and they may continue to do so.
20/05/2018 jeff316
Burlington goes through these cycles where families predominate and this is one of them, and it might keep the Liberals in the game - if Burli didn't like Hudak, it's not going to like Ford. As an aside, why all the NDP calls here? Riding associations for marginal parties (like the NDP in Burlington) have a lot of personnel turnover. No one likes to lose and lose badly YOYOY. Inevitably, each election attracts a new crop of volunteers who think they have the answer to the lack of local success, only to put in a shift over an election or two and realize that the party just isn't competitive in ridings like this. Wash, rinse, repeat.
19/05/2018 Kyle H
I live there. There is no Drummond Revolution. I've seen a total of one of his signs so far, compared to an obviously robust PC presence and a middling Liberal one. Stahp.
19/05/2018 The Jackal
I am starching my head trying to figure why there are so many NDP predictions here. This is clearly a PC seat and NDP may do some damage especially to the Liberals but not enough to win the seat. This is a 905 sear not SW Ontario.
13/05/2018 JDD
The NDP appear to have nominated a truly competent and dedicated candidate this time around. Already, there has been more enthusiasm and more good press for Mr. Drummond than the NDP has received in this riding ever before. Yes, Burlington is traditionally a Tory riding, but there is a growing province-wide sentiment that Ford in not the answer. Mr. Drummond is presenting himself as a viable option to oust the Liberals while blocking Ford - and Burlington may just take him up on that.
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
A tory riding every election until the last one, even throughout 2/3rds of Liberal reign, this will be one of the first to swing back to the Tories, with certainly a 10 point swing.
25/04/2018 ARR
On Tuesday, April 24, Andrew Drummond was officially nominated as the Ontario NDP Candidate for Burlington. The room was packed with enthusiastic supporters and his speech gained a standing ovation. I sensed in the room the true hope that the NDP might really have a chance this time. Drummond is the kind of candidate who can inspire people to support the 'We Can Do Better' campaign. Don't write him off. He will do well at all candidate debates and is committed to knock on as many doors and talk to as many Burlington residents as possible before Election Day. The Liberals and PC's should remember the old adage 'Never underestimate your opponent.'
15/04/2018 A.S.
Regarding 1990, it's very much possible that had Burlington not had a PC incumbent in the form of Cam Jackson, it could have gone NDP--but the fact that Jackson was reelected in a landslide shows how that year's vote was more 'anti-Liberal' than 'pro-NDP' per se. 2014, of course, was the archetypal Liberal upset in a Tory stronghold, though the fact that Burlington had become supermarginal in the three consecutive general elections before that should have indicated it wouldn't have been clear sailing--but as in much of Ontario, it's interesting how Hudak's bash-the-poor campaign swung the vote from 2011 to 2014; the more affluent polls close to the Lakeshore remained more or less firm, while the north-of-QEW populist polls went more conspicuously Liberalward. Of course, it's in the latter where Ford populism's banking its fortunes; and as some are claiming, at the expense of the former, which is why the Grits aren't necessarily deemed a one-election blip. Or at least, a one-*consecutive*-election blip...
05/04/2018 C. H.
An easy pickup for the PCs with the Liberals struggling in the 905, and the kind of suburban, working-class area where Ford should play well.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
The NDP are not going to win Burlington, full stop.
This is not a New Democrat riding in any way. Certain parts of it could drift towards orange - Aldershot, Mountainside, parts of the downtown core and a few other polls - but it isn't enough to overcome the family- and business-oriented upper middle class that dominates the rest of the riding. There simply aren't enough sympathetic voters in the riding to give whoever the candidate will be a win - and no, I have no idea who Andrew Drummond is - unless they're someone who would be atypical for the party, like if Mayor Goldring stepped down to run or something (even then...). It's just not going to happen.
As to who *will* win... hey I'm an optimist, I'll keep it TCTC for now. :)
31/03/2018 Dr Bear
@HD, I agree with you completely about this election being one where the NDP might pick up some unexpected seats. However ARR is suggesting that the NDP candidate is some superstar that they
28/03/2018 HD
I doubt ARR meant that the NDP won Burlington in 1990, but rather that the political climate of that election meant that the NDP swept seats they had never won or expected to win. This year could be a perfect storm - people are disillusioned by the Liberals and facing a choice of Ford or something different... I'd keep an eye on NDP support this time around - it might just surprise you!
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford polls had brutal news for the Liberals in Halton: a net swing to the Tories of over 30 points, compared to the 2014 results.
One Liberal might find a magic formula to survive the wave, but at the moment, its far more likely that all 4 seats go to the PCs.
22/03/2018 MF
Don't recall the NDP winning Burlington in 1990.
Right now I see this as a toss-up between the Liberals and PCs. While this is a traditional Tory seat and 'the numbers' right now would put this back into the PC column. Burlington is not as 'elite' as Oakville but I'm not sure if Doug Ford will fly here or not. Under Christine Elliott this would have been just about the lowest hanging fruit.
22/03/2018 Dr. Bear
Remember the Bob Rae victory? What on Earth are you talking about? The PCs won Burlington in the 1990 election with over 52% of the vote; one of only 20 seats they got in that election.
Now to be serious, prior to Doug Ford winning the leadership race, I thought this was going to swing back to the PCs. It's quite an affluent swing riding that doesn't care for the current Liberal government, yet really can't behind the blow-hard populism of Dougie and Co. This one will be up in the air until the actual race shapes up in the months to come. As for the NDP winning in Burlington: not a chance.
21/03/2018 ARR
Rumour has it that there will be a fresh, new NDP candidate in Burlington this time around by the name of Andrew Drummond. With his sound knowledge of politics, his debating skills, and his concern for the working poor, he just may have a chance. Remember the Bob Rae victory!
11/03/2018 jeff316
Brown leader + no McKenna = PC gain
Ford leader + McKenna = Liberal hold, easily
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, I would say McKenna would likely win this back with ease. With the PC in implosion mode and McKenna's close tie to Brown (one of the first MPP/former MPP to support Brown), McMahon is now back in contention. NDP is not a factor here.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
Jane will take the seat back, she lost it by a narrow margin in the last election, is very personable, dynamic, and energetic.
She will fight tooth and nail to get her seat back. Hands down. I am certain she is determined and has learned many lessons in the last few years an due to her loss.
The Libs will have a herculean effort of holding a suburban, mortgage belt seat with as narrow a cushion as they have here.
08/01/2018 MF
A traditionally PC outer GTA riding lost by Hudak. If the Tories can't regain this, Patrick Brown is done as leader.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is a centre-right suburban riding so it only goes Liberals when the Tories mess up badly so with Wynne's unpopularity and Brown staying out of trouble so far, this should be ripe for picking up. Even if the Liberals win a minority, they would probably still lose this one.
06/12/2017 Random Voter
Burlington voted Liberal for the first time since this Riding's creation, and the voters have buyer's remorse. Tourism Minister for their MPP or not, this should be one of the first Progressive Conservative pick-ups. Premier Wynne is just too low in the polls to hold on here.

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