Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 16:26:00

Constituency Profile












   Hon Dave Levac

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):132443

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

18899 37.86%
14746 29.54%
13677 27.40%
2007 4.02%
OTHERS 589 1.18%
Total Transposed 49919

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed49919

Federal Election Result (2015):

Phil McColeman **
Danielle Takacs
Marc Laferriere
Kevin Brandt
Rob Ferguson
The Engineer Turmel


06/06/2018 prognosticator15
Liberals will not win here, progressives flocked to NDP, but there are many Liberals who only voted for Levac and hate NDP, and in a two-way race in a riding with demographics of Brantford, PC is ahead of NDP. Bouma should win here, and likely by a comfortable margin.
05/06/2018 Christopher L
Most of the projections I've seen show Brantford going NDP. This is exactly the sort of mid-sized town that they need to pick up if they're going to have any chance of forming government, and I think Horwath will do quite well across the Southwest. Although victory is looking increasingly unlikely on a province-wide basis for the NDP, I think they should be able to squeak in here.
04/06/2018 frank
The PCs have a great deal of support, this is mainly due to the reckless choice the Liberals made in nominating there very weak candidate.
As a result, the Liberals are not a factor in this race in Brantford-Brant and votes are being divided between PC and NDP as people can't support the liberal candidate.
I think that the PCs will be elected in this riding.
03/06/2018 Anthony
Various seat projections have this seat going NDP because of the large number of Liberal voters switching over to them in this riding to prevent a PC victory.
23/05/2018 Brantfordian
As a resident of this riding I can tell you, based purely on lawn sign presence the PC is in first spot, with the NDP in second. The liberals are not a factor and were never 'liberal' purely Levac supporters. Felsky has more signs than usual but nothing extravagant, and Bouma's presence is similar to McColeman's in his 2011 landslide. I would say the PC have the edge at this moment in time, but it depends on how volatile the race is moving forward.
CBC reporting NDP is at 50% int his riding...the lIberal imploded and have moved to the NDP
18/05/2018 Bza
Really interesting dynamics in one of the few 3-way races in the province. With how things are going for the NDP in southwestern Ontario I can see the NDP taking this riding.
It will likely be extremely close with all three parties in the 30-35% range most likely.
The NDP are at 49% in SW Ontario..this seat will flip
The 'too close to call' designation on tgis riding is wishful thinking on somebody's part. Tories will win Brantford-Brant by a good margin - just as CPC held the seat in the last federal.
Pollara has the NDP at 30% and they are surging. This seat in SW Ontario will flip NDP due to the candidate and the provincial NDP campaign
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
Interesting dynamics to this race, but given the overall Southwestern Ontario polling and the general trends, with the Liberals minus their high name-rec incumbent, one has to imagine that the smart money here during a heavily anti-Government sentiment election is on the PC's taking this just as they did in 1995.
16/04/2018 Exile
The PCs will pick up this seat in a walk. The only thing stopping them for years was the personal popularity of Dave Levac. Look at the federal 2015 result - in a bad election for the CPC, Phil McColeman held the seat by 7,000 vote margin.
Will Bouma will win this one. NDP will be second. And in a riding they held for 19 years, the Liberals will run a poor third.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm going to reiterate my earlier TCTC prediction. Just before the 2014 election, Forum was polling SW Ontario and got PC 42%, LIb 27%, NDP 24%. Now we are looking at PC 39%, Lib 20%, NDP 32%. With NDP support being concentrated in urban areas, and the PC support looking stagnant, I say that disenfranchised Liberals are swinging to the NDP.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
No Levac. No hope. The Ford Nation will roll here.
20/03/2018 Call me Cal
Do a bit of research on this race and you'll be hard pressed to find anything about the PC candidate even the parties web-site has his name and no picture or information. The NDP Candidate has been on the campaign trail since the last election, she appears to have $$, organization and momentum that might be all the edge it takes this time around.
19/03/2018 jeff316
The NDP needs to run a hydro lineman here to solidify its electoral bonafides with their urban voters and blue collar workers and rural progressive and firefighter-calendar-buying suburban moms. And they run a former candidate from the not for profit sector instead. That might work in Windsor but not in Brant. Ford
19/03/2018 A.S.
While it may look as if the Tories are poised to grab yet another open Liberal seat in SW Ontario, the fact of the matter is that the NDP has been running rather spirited campaigns in Brantford as of late; and Alex Felsky was not only not far behind the Tories in 2014, she won a whole lot more polls. If *anyone* can upset the Wynne-rejection spectre of Brantford blue, it's her--then again, they said that about Marc Laferriere federally in 2015, only to find the 'disunited left' inconveniently choking one another instead. Though when we're dealing with Horwath's warm'n'fuzzy SW Ontario-ness rather than Mulcair's cerebrality, it may be a more promising dynamic--on the other hand, the Grits could just as well still assert (if in practice, as in 2015, less as winner than as spoiler) the kind of 'incumbent rights' that they couldn't do federally. Of course, on the Ford Tories' behalf, Brantford, with its ghosts of the farm-implements industry, *is* a 'Trump Democrat' type of town...
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
I've made a few predictions along the lines of PCs not doing too well in the election, but they aren't *that* bad in the polls post-Brown. The Liberals aren't terribly popular either, so I see this riding as a pretty safe pick-up for the PC candidate, barring any further change in the situation.
17/01/2018 Political junkie
Can't see how this isn't a Tory pick up. Dave Levac and Phil McColeman are very good friends and actually not that far apart politically. Small L and Small C just like the riding itself. They have both basically stayed out of each other's campaigns for the last 10 years. That is not an issue anymore with Levac not running so Phil's team can get behind Bouma. A very popular Levac still barely won the last couple of times against very weak candidates and campaigns. There was a strongly contested nomination fight that has brought a lot of motivated new members especially from Bouma. Riding is also far from blue collar or union anymore. Barring a disaster, Bouma wins, no matter what happens provincially.
2017-12-26 Craig
This is likely the first seat the Liberals will lose (especially with Levac gone), even if they win again province-wide. In fact, they will likely finish third. The question is - who will pick it up?
If the NDP can consolidate support among blue-collar voters, then they would probably be favoured. Otherwise, the PC's should take the seat (and should keep it federally in 2019). It really depends on who get the Levac - but not Liberal - chunk of the vote. I'd say it can't be determined until we know more on who gets what.
21/12/2017 Dr. Bear
Everyone's going to be predicting a PC win here in Brantford, but I say just hold on a second. I see a pattern that has played out elsewhere in SW Ontario, leading to a different outcome.
In the 2014 election, this riding voted 37.6% for the Liberals, 30% for the PC, 27.2% for the NDP. I'd argue that a sizable chunk of that vote (5 - 10%) was a vote for David Levac, who isn't running again. Where that vote goes will determine the winner in this riding. The NDP are third place, but not that far behind the PCs. So I can see the NDP taking this riding, as opposed to the the PC. This is the exact same thing that has previously played out in Niagara Falls, London West and Waterloo (and I'm saying could play out in London North Centre as well). I will reassess this riding in the months to come, when we have a better idea of how the big players are faring in the election, and more specifically in SW Ontario.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
The Liberals will likely fall to third here. In Southwestern Ontario they've taken a big hit and this riding went federally Tory so I think the PCs are heavily favoured to pick this up although if the NDP can get above 30% provincewide and get some momentum they might have a shot as Brantford is a blue collar town with a strong union presence so Howarth's populism is proably more suited to here than Wynne's downtown Toronto liberalism.
11/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
Popular MPP Dave Levac would win comfortably when the party was doing well, and win narrowly when it was doing less well in this Liberal-leaning riding.
Levac is retiring, and the Liberals are doing much less than well; a tough, but not impossible, hold.
10/12/2017 seasaw
The Liberals have won this riding 5 straight times and Levac's retirement will have little impact on the outcome. Liberals have won here when they won the election and when they lost. Unless the PC's are in a majority territory ( can't see it happening now, but we'll see ), this riding shall remain Liberal
06/12/2017 Kathy
With incumbent Dave Levac not running again, I suspect the PCs will pick this one up.

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