Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

York South-Weston

Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:16:00

Constituency Profile








    York South-Weston
   Hon Laura Albanese

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):116606

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15669 47.85%
3687 11.26%
12200 37.25%
797 2.43%
OTHERS 395 1.21%
Total Transposed 32748

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York South-Weston

Total Transposed32748

Federal Election Result (2015):

Ahmed Hussen
Mike Sullivan **
James Robinson
Stephen Lepone
John Johnson


31/05/2018 Kevin TO
I think the NDP has a very good shot here but I think this riding is still too close to call. I see more Liberal than NDP signs when I drive through this riding. I also think the PC candidate will out perform prior PC candidates in vote share as I see more PC signs than usual.
5/28/2018 Romano
I just voted Liberal but was shocked to see en masse of NDP supporters walking from the campaign Office to the balloting station at King and Weston (Public Library)with NDP Tshirt walking along the road as if there are going to watch the Stanley cup finals. Holly crap this happens on the weekend same thing has happened today. I skipped the lineup and today on Monday same thing. Who is this Feisal Hassan anyways? sounds like he is the only candidate running for York South Weston. Laura Albanese really have given up and I am discouraged, and I feel I have spoiled my ballot for voting for Liberals. There is no Liberal momentum anymore in York South Weston. I am a regular visitor in the mama-Paps eatery and even our Italian folks are keeping away from the political conversation about the liberals. it seems they all turncoat to NDP and die-hard supporters like me are drop in an Ocean and it does not matter any longer since people of Weston have decided it's NDP
5/24/2018 Danny
The previous poster's observations match what I've seen in this riding: a pretty dominant ground game for the NDP. Most polls have the NDP in 1st or tied province-wide. This is going NDP and it won't even be close.
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
Under the current polling conditions, I feel this will be relatively low hanging fruit for the NDP. This is a riding where they have a history and a ground game. Liberals are on the wane and the PCs have pathetic levels of support. I say this goes orange.
23/05/2018 Hussein
I am a Taxi driver and pick my stand at York South Weston. It appears the NDP guy has put up a serious campaign and every building I picked a customer or neighborhood a drive through you can see he his posters. I do my little sampling( btw 20-30 people everyday) and engage my customers and NDP seems to cut across race/gender & majority confirm they will vote for NDP. What is interest to me was that most of my customers mentioned that they always vote for liberal, but now they will vote for NDP. I have also visited both campaign office & NDP Office appears more staffed, strategically placed on a high traffic & opens very early in the morning & closes late at night. They also have more canvassing team on the ground. This riding is definitely going to be an NDP win.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up 53 - 24 - 20 on PCs and Liberals York South-Western. It's a small sample size, but a 29 point lead is a lot.
20/05/2018 Bza
This riding tends to go NDP in a wave election, which this one certainly feels that way. Went NDP in the 2011 federal election as well as the 1990 election.
20/05/2018 jeff316
Albanese is everywhere during this election. She used to hide and now she's all over the place. Her signs dominate private property in all neighbourhoods. Lots of old Italians and Portuguese still live here. Hassan is going to need an NDP sweep, or else he is going to have a tough time.
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
The NDP has the slight advantage right now in YSW. It will be interesting to see how much the PCs grow in the riding, given the Ford family's strength in the area in the municipal elections. I think it's possible that the PCs hit as high as 25%, much higher than their previous runs. It likely won't be enough to overtake the NDP.
19/05/2018 MF
Time to make a call here: it's going NDP. The Liberals are done here and while there might be a 'Ford Nation' boost for the PCs in this very working class riding, it's not enough for them to win it. Faisal Hassan will be, I believe, the first Somali Canadian MPP, just as YSW also elected the first Somali Canadian MP, Ahmed Hussen.
The LISPOP report the NDP are leading in York South-Weston and will win the riding
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Finally a fresh Toronto poll. North York, compared to 2014:
Liberals -20
PCs +10
NDP +7
07/05/2018 Stats
People -- especially hopeful Liberal sympathizers -- are missing the boat in this riding. The real instructive election for what will happen here is the 2011 Federal. Current provincial polling points to a similar province-wide dynamic as what we saw in that Federal election which means this riding will go NDP. So with the prevailing trends meaning big trouble for the Wynne government, expect the NDP candidate to win with between 36-40%, the Liberal incumbent to get between 30%-35% and the PC candidate to get a Ford-bump to a very competitive 20-25%.
Bottom-line: There is no way the Liberals retain this competitive seat if they finish third province-wide (which looks increasingly likely), despite the incumbent's local popularity and name recognition. Just ask former Liberal MP Alan Tonks about that.
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%...This riding will flip to the NDP
02/05/2018 Centrism
The Liberals have had a rough month. They are making no significant gains on the pc's and might even end up in third party status, but YSW likely will not be one of the seats that will fall. PC's have no base here whatsoever, Ford Nation is relevant here and Ford himself is popular but that will not drag a 12 point vote share and make it 40. The votes are simply not there. Liberals will not turn to him in the numbers needed and NDPers likely won't favour the PC's over the Liberals. Laura is a minister and also a very strong local rep with considerable roots and ties. Faisal does not have the grassroots, funding or title to compete with the minister. Unlike other ridings like Davenport, the NDP has a weak candidate and the Toronto message seems to be failing. Even with the new GTHA platform, Andrea has tried so hard to push through, voters just don't see eye to eye with the NDP anymore. Laura will retain this seat, with a smaller margin, probably, but still, either a very impressive NDP campaign manages to push her out or an even more impressive 3rd to 1st from Mark and the PCs. As it stands on the 2nd of May, Laura is going back to queens park.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Disaffected Liberals look to be breaking to the PCs over the NDP by a 3:2 ratio, but that will be more than enough for the NDP here.
Ford is driving progressives to the NDP to stop him....NDP pick up
27/03/2018 Demarcoa
Following the larger trends in Ontario, I think enough voters will pass on the Liberals, while NDP support should remain steady enough for a win.
21/03/2018 Stephen B
I don't see how this could be 'too close to call.' It's a riding the Tories have never held in seven general elections, and the NDP only once in a fairly meaningless (same year as a general) byelection.
It's also being contested by a cabinet minister whose personal vote share has increased every contest she's fought here, regardless of the party's varying performance province-wide. And who won nearly half of the vote, and ten points better than the second-place finisher, in 2014. Almost certain Liberal hold.
21/03/2018 ML
Like MF mentioned, I think this is now a three-way race. Rob Ford and Doug Ford won the York South Weston wards in 2014 and 2010, yet the PCs only hit 11% in the last 2014 provincial election for the same area. Still, Ford Nation's populism appeals to residents across all political stripes, and particularly low income and new Canadians who make up huge parts of this riding.
19/03/2018 MF
York South-Weston is traditionally a Liberal/NDP riding (admittedly more Liberal in recent years), but Doug Ford leading the PCs could make it interesting. Ford dominated York South-Weston in the municipal race but it's hard to believe all his supporters will be willing to cross the Rubicon and actually vote for the PCs provincially (if they did the PCs would win in a walk). Still Ford likely throws a monkey wrench into traditional voting patterns here. Can he attract enough votes for the PCs come up the middle in a three-way race? Does Ford's presence hurt the Liberals more and help the NDP come up the middle? Or does the NDP vote drop off and the anti-Conservative vote coalesces around the Liberals? This is a race to watch.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Rakocevic is a weak perennial candidate they are rewarding for working away in some NDP office somewhere.
17/03/2018 A.S.
Among prov NDP leaders, not just Rae and Joliffe, but Donald MacDonald in the interim, held the former York South seat--and of course, there was also David Lewis federally. As for the recent past, Paul Ferreira's multiple runs actually somewhat bump-stocked the ONDP advantage hereabouts--2014's result was probably closer to the party's natural 'gravity', and as such wasn't *that* bad given the party's overall urban fate that year (ie not a Rosario Marchese-scale disaster--perhaps, as with the York West sleeper, it reflected the 'Fordwath' dynamic?). Of course, it'd be a wonder if, under Doug Ford's leadership, nobody's offering YSW as a potential 'Nunziata Tory' pickup--it'd make absolute, perfect, logical sense, wouldn't it? (Up to you to judge.)
13/03/2018 Demarcoa
It's possible NDP can close the lead and take this riding but I predict incumbency will carry the Liberals into keeping this seat.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Another seat the NDP could make interesting with current polling levels. I think too close to call for now.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals so fast. In the last two elections, the NDP almost won this so yes at the moment the Liberals are favoured but any slight momentum for the NDP and they could pick this up. This is more your blue collar populist type which Howarth is well suited for as opposed to your latte sipping liberal type riding. This area did after all vote for the Ford Brothers municipally so has a more populist than elitist tone to it.
11/12/2017 seasaw
I know the NDP has high hopes for this riding and let's face it two of their former leaders, Bob Rae and Ted Joliffe were from this riding. But let's face it, they haven't won here in a general election since Bob Rae retired. Also, remember, Rae didn't win here by much in 1985 and very nearly lost in 1987. These facts coupled with Laura Albanese's performance as MPP, make this a safe Liberal seat

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster