Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-07 21:06:00

Constituency Profile









   Lorne Coe

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):122022

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15969 32.77%
20171 41.39%
10242 21.02%
2105 4.32%
OTHERS 246 0.50%
Total Transposed 48733

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed48733

Federal Election Result (2015):

Celina Caesar-Chavannes
Pat Perkins **
Ryan Kelly
Craig Cameron
Jon O'Connor


04/06/2018 MS from Durham
From talking to people at Brooklin Fair on the weekend, I see the Coe people running scared here. The issue of dropping tolls on the 400 series roads between the 401 and 407 is a huge winner for the NDP and will cost the Tories. The Liberals have collasped and will be a non-factor.
The NDP are running a strong candidate here in Nikki Lundquist, and look for her to not only win the seat, but get a cabinet seat, if Horwath forms the government.
01/06/2018 The Elites - Also From Whitby
Clearly 'Actually from Whitby' didn't read my post. I never said the NDP would win. I said they could win if the cards are in their favor.
Coe is worried. He's been buying constant ads in the local newspaper, with the most recent one attacking the NDP. No mention of the Liberals. LISPOP only has Whitby leaning PC as opposed to safe PC, as of today. Recent polls do have the NDP being competitive in the 905. While I don't think the NDP will win here, I do think that all the signs are pointing to a much closer race than expected. Coe will most likely win here, but with a smaller vote share.
5/29/2018 Actually from Whitby
'The Elites' That is wishful thinking on your part. The only reason why the NDP may improve its showing in this riding is because the Liberal candidate is from outside the riding, few local Liberals are helping and the central party is providing no support to their own candidate. I also don't think there is a ton of 'shy NDP voters' as you state. Let's give the people more credit than that.
26/05/2018 The Elites
The NDP are surging in the polls. Forum had them at 47% and Ispos had them leading in the 905, where the Liberal support is collapsing. Although Coe has the incumbent and sign advantage, I suspect that there are more shy NDP voters here who might not want to put up a sign in conservative neighborhoods.
My current projection is that Coe will take it, but his lead will be much narrower than people expect. If the NDP continue to rise in the polls, particularly in the 905, then the NDP might be able to win here in a squeaker.
13/05/2018 The Jackal
The Liberals pulled out all out the stops with even PM Trueadu making an appearance in the by election. With the numbers being what they are Lorne Coe will win handily.
10/05/2018 Orange Tory
No risk in this riding being painted anything but blue. The day the writ was dropped, hundreds of Coe signs popped up on residential properties. Clearly the PC team has their ground game in order. Easy hold.
18/04/2018 A.S.
As the byelection proved, Whitby doesn't need Christine Elliot (or *anybody* from within her household) to affirm its Tory inclinations--at least in a climate that favours the Tories (which was definitely the case at the time of the byelection, and is definitely the case now). Also, if we're to use their byelection 16% as an indicator (when most polls were anticipating maybe about half that), don't be surprised if the NDP nips the Libs for second (though that may be less likely now that Whitby's ceded its Oshawa polls)
01/02/2018 M. Lunn
With Christine Elliott now in, will it be Lorne Coe still or Christine Elliott. Either way I suspect the PCs will take this unless they are silly enough to choose Doug Ford and Elliott isn't running.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
As an outlying suburb, this is a lean PC, not solid one and had Christine Elliott not been the candidate, I think the Liberals would have taken this in 2014 much like they did federally and likewise had the federal Tories managed to get her as candidate it probably would have stayed Tory federally as both Elliott and the late Jim Flaherty have/had deep roots in this riding and are quite popular. Still if Lorne Coe could easily take this without the personal profile and even with Justin Trudeau (who was still very popular then) campaigning for the Liberals, I don't see why he won't in 2018 win this. Nonetheless whenever Ontario tires of the PCs and throws them out like they did federally, I think the OLP will take this, but not next time around.
06/12/2017 Kathy
Lorne Coe cruised to an easy byelection win here. PC hold.

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