Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 23:54:00

Constituency Profile








   Hon Steven Del Duca

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):105450

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

19246 57.99%
8965 27.01%
3637 10.96%
730 2.20%
OTHERS 609 1.84%
Total Transposed 33187

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed33187

Federal Election Result (2015):

Francesco Sorbara
Julian Fantino **
Adriana Marie Zichy
Anthony Gualtieri
Elise Boulanger


05/06/2018 prognosticator15
Projection for the whole York region to go PC is too good for PC to be true, and this prediction seems to rely too much on regional polls which may overstate PC margins in York region and understate those in Southwestern Ontario and Niagara (against the NDP rise) when actual election day change tends to be smaller than the wild swings and trends polls predict. While York region is indeed an area of Liberal weakness in this election and NDP weakness as well (too many voters are scared of NDP here), I only see 4 of 10 ridings going PC for certain, including the two currently held. Everywhere else, certainly in Markham, it will be a close call to the end. And while I agree that in most ridings here PCs still have a slight advantage, Del Duca is more likely to stay in as an MP in what will be (as in other York areas) a fairly close PC-Liberal race. It is not because of a 'stubborn Italian' Liberal vote - Italian vote is weaker now, and the 'stubborn Liberal' part of it has all but disappeared, being in any case partly a recycled Grit-created myth from decades of pre-(Brian) Mulroney era. Rather, current demographics is different from some of the nearby areas (a few less-well-to-do areas etc.), personality-based support is strong, and it is in ridings like this that voters are likely to hear Wynne's call to elect Liberal MPs and stop others from gaining majority. With little NDP surge, many progressives here also realize they vote for a possible new Liberal leader - unless he somehow also happens to get dirty in a political scandal - potential leader Chris Bentley's experience comes to mind.
04/06/2018 Stevo
People are predicting Conservative victories in Mississauga and Brampton (well, not so much for Brampton anymore) because those regions have a history of turning on a dime. It doesn't matter how rock solid previous Liberal victories were in those Peel Region ridings. They are prone to dramatic shifts and this election is no exception. Vaughan isn't like that. Italian-Canadians are some of staunchest partisan Liberals in the country and Vaughan is ground zero for the community. LISPOP now has the Liberals down to 5 seats total and this is one of them. I think they'll manage to hold on.
01/06/2018 MF
Time to make a prediction for Woodbridge...it's going PC and it won't even be close.
First of all, the Liberals will almost certainly be shut out in the 905. Woodbridge ain't that special. Second, Doug Ford is very popular among GTA Italians and he's actually an asset to the PC brand in Woodbridge (in other words he over-performs compared to a more "generic" PC leader). Third, posters are greatly underestimating the Conservative strength in Woodbridge. Not only did they win in a landslide in the 2011 federal election (the last time the Liberals were in third) but in 2015 they still received 44% of the vote in spite of the Justin Trudeau's "red tide" nationally. In other words, in like with other York Region ridings it was close, not a Peel Region-style blowout for the Conservatives (and yet many of these same posters saying that the Liberals will win Woodbridge are prediciting Conservative victories all over Mississauga and Brampton!)
To conclude, the Conservatives will not only take this, but it will also be one of their better 905 results (just like in the last federal election).
Support for the Conservatives has sagged in the last 8 days and the beneficiary has been Steven Del Ducca. The result in this race is going to be close but I feel mostly certain Steven will win. It is hard for me to believe that voters will choose a man who lives in Brampton to represent Vaughan in the Legislature. The NDP campaign is weaker than most of the surrounding ridings and that will also help Steven. I am going to vote for the local guy, Steven Del Ducca, not for the Conservative from Brampton. And I predict a Liberal win.
5/29/2018 fixing vaughan
DelDuca is a bully! this is what i have been hearing time and time again, he has bullied the tibollo campaign as well as residents. being a liberal dosent help him in this election its clearly a sinking ship. tibollo plays a very blue-collar card, having met both with out knowing who either where at the time (just by chance i suppose) tibollo came across as a cool guy 'one of the boys' if you will. DelDuca emits this aura of tense distrust. one thing i don't like about the tibollo campaign is that former disgraced municipal politician MICHEAL DIBIASE is working with them. dibiase like most of the municipal politicians was a nightmare for residents turning a cold shoulder to those in need to support friends and special interest, and now that he was accused of sexual harassment... he's the last thing the PCS should be associated with. moving on, the ndp rep, new! she might pull some weight but i doubt she's gonna make a big dent, and the green party rep... oh boy... a former green federal rep for a scarborough bi-election last year somehow drove and hour west and ended up here, i don't like his story it smells like francesco sobara but not as stinky. (the local MP who moved here from the yukon and was elected, no contest, also not related to former MPP greg sobra, just somehow ended up here from the other side of the country)
26/05/2018 The Hedonist
This is going to be one of the closest races on election night.
Here we have a perfect storm for a close race:
- a very popular incumbent who can say he brought the TTC to Vaughan
- strong discontent with Liberals (dismal Liberal polling in GTA 905)
- Bellweather riding (Al Palladini represented this riding for the PCs for many years prior to Sorbara/Bevilacqua/Del Duca & this went Conservative in the 2011 Federal Election)
- A strong PC candidate with a strong ground campaign
- A large but gradually shrinking stubborn old school Italian liberal vote
- New condos built in the riding since last election
It all comes down to the question:
Will FordNation resonate with Woodbridge? Better odds for a PC victory next door with Stephen Lecce in King-Vaughan... BUT I will predict PC since this tends to go bellweather, and it's clear PCs will be forming the gov't (or atleast winning the most amount of seats).
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
The Liberals got close to 60% last time. That would suggest to me a natural liberal leaning and/or personal appeal of the incumbent. I would argue both apply to this riding. While liberals will be dropping like flies throughout the 905, I think Del Duca will hold on. Voters will vote for him, not the OLP.
23/05/2018 Stephen Thomas
PC candidate is decent, not spectacular but decent. However, can't believe more people aren't talking about that organized labour has turned against Del Duca. He's apparently cut a deal with his old employer and has unions now working against him. Because of that, I think Del Duca loses on June 7th. He won't be able to run for liberal leader because of it and Tibollo (PC guy) will be the new attorney general. the lesson here is don't pick a fight with organized labour unions!
18/05/2018 The Jackal
After June 7 Del Luca will be the lone Liberal MPP in York Region and a possible leadership candidate.
14/05/2018 Mittens Romney
Too close to call.
This riding has a very stubborn Liberal vote, particularly with the middle aged and older Italian-Canadian population. That said, it is in the middle of the GTA, and has had federal and provincial representation in the past.
Mr. Del Duca may be premature in thinking that he will hold this easily and taking time to do some early campaigning for Liberal leader. If the Liberals come in third province-wide the PCs may finally take this provincially.
18/04/2018 A.S.
The Honourable Member for Vaughan Metropolitan Centre, i.e. with a rep like Del Duca, the Ford-ian mantra of subways! subways! subways! is redundant--not that DoFo's party's redundant, though; after all, there've been plenty of Ford fundraisers over the years in venues north of Steeles. True, Liberal incumbency's hard to dislodge here; but it would have been argued that *any* incumbency was hard to dislodge prior to Julian Fantino's fed defeat in 2015. But as with Fantino, a Del Duca defeat'll likely be a defeat with 40%+ of the vote; or at least likelier to be such than virtually any other 905 Liberal, if we're looking at radical anti-Grit '905 sweep' dynamics taking root...
13/04/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
Del Dooks has leadership aspirations and is a tough fighter and a real meat to the grinder political warrior. He will pour everything he has into this and will put up a good fight, but I suspect it won't be enough.
This is a swing seat, and the forces at play for an incumbent knock-out are significant. Many loyal Lib Italianos will stay home. Demographic changes mean there are many new families and ethnic groups without old school party loyalties around. This is a mortgage belt and commuter seat, so pocket book issues will resonate.
The PC base will be very motivated and they have a good candidate. Barring a Dougie meltdown or some big surprise, I think Del Duca will lose this seat, albeit narrowly, perhaps very narrowly.
06/04/2018 Open For Business
If the residents of Vaughan Believe Doug Ford and The Progressive conservatives will take power, the residents of Vaughan will sway to Michael Tibollo. As you can see from past elections a 4-5% swing in voters will make the difference. Although Steven DelDuca is the incumbent and a popular liberal and give him credit for his knowledge of liberal Policy, winning this riding would mean the riding would not be represented in Queens Park and his influence would be a all but useless to Vaughan residents. Michael Tibollo speaks fluent Italian and has always served as a leader in Cultural diversity enrichment programs. The more exposure in the public eye He receives the more support from the community especially from the undecided voters who I suspect will come out in record numbers this election as they are all upset at the liberals for not delivering on past promises.
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
Be careful when comparing Fantino's win to now. Fantino won a vacant seat, while this is being occupied by a relatively popular incumbent. While I would not be stunned if this goes blue in June, I still think Del Duca has enough of a personal following to stay afloat in the imminent northern 905 wipeout.
04/04/2018 Tazway
Doug Ford resonates heavily among seniors and business man in the riding. Michael Tibollo also resonates with Seniors and business man. Michael is a grassroots type leader. From his work in writing legislation for Italian heritage month, work with drug addiction and mental health organizations and many other charitable organization all the while raising a successful family and business he is a true fresh face in politics and he does what he says and never missed a promise. Michael work has always been for the seniors and for the People of Vaughan. Steven DelDuca is a worthy incumbent very educated and a good speaker, but has stood behind Cathleen Wynn on many Podiums and doesn't look happy. Many people especially seniors don't appreciate Wynn and her policies and unfortunately this unfavourable opinion will be inherited by DelDuca. The riding has always had a slim Margin between Liberal and Conservatives. The Voters usually sway to the Leader with the best campaign. Doug Ford is leading in the polls and so will Vaughan Woodbridge sway to Conservatives. Cathleen Wynn is trying to buy the votes with increased deficits spending budgets but it wont make a difference to the Voters especially the seniors and the Workers as non of the policy touches their needs. Liberal had 12 years to make things better and they didn't. By throwing money at the budget it advances their socialist agenda in an attempt to correct their mistakes. Steven Delduca admitted that the policy is Socialist and is required in his last breakfast budget Speech. I think Vaughan-Woodbridge will prove him wrong.
31/03/2018 MF
I'm not sure why Stevo thinks Woodbridge is such a uniquely Liberal fortress in the 905. Don't be fooled by the St. Paul's margin of victory for Del Duca last time - this is a riding that often swings very hard toward one candidate. Never before has this riding been a standalone Liberal riding in a blue 905 sea. If the 905 goes blue, Woodbridge will too!
Note also that of all the 905 ridings that swung from Conservative to Liberal in the last federal election, Vaughan-Woodbridge was near the top in terms of Conservative vote. It was not a blowout like in Peel Region.
Del Duca is the most partisan of all the Liberal caucus and I expect that in the anti-Wynne zeitgeist, voters will know and be repelled. This turf is pretty close geographically to Doug and that helps the Tory. If Fantino could win, so could Tibolo can. Should Del Duca win watch for him to announce he's running for leader after the very minimum 'grace' period.
19/03/2018 Stevo
The Italo-Vaughanites sure do love their Liberals, despite being one of the most socially conservative cultural communities in the GTA. Julian Fantino managed to break through for the CPC at the federal level in a byelection/majority election situation, but it's tough in a place that gave Maurizio Bevilacqua and Greg Sorbara massive Crowfoot-esque majorities. Socio-economics indicate that Woodbridge ought to be receptive to Ford Nation but will take at least one more election cycle.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling double the Liberals in York-Durham-Simcoe region; there are no safe Liberal seats in the 905.
12/03/2018 MF
Disagree with the Liberal call here. Woodbridge is not auto-pilot Liberal by any means.
Just as Trump did far better in Staten Island than in Greenwich, Connecticut, a PC pickup in Woodbridge seems more likely than in Oakville right now. Doug Ford's businessman-populism likely has more appeal than a generic PC among Italian Canadian voters. He also cleaned up in the Italian areas in Toronto in the municipal election. The federal Conservatives also did very well in 2011 here and even came pretty close last time in spite of Fantino being a disaster in Cabinet.
08/03/2018 Vaughan Voter
Steven Del Duca is the second best constituency MPP in the entire province. He has extraordinary name recognition because of his hard work in Vaughan. Even if his party does not do particularly well he will definitely hang on to this riding because of his hard work and because he is incredibly well liked.
Del Duca is demonstrated to be to arrogant and he is too distant from the voters. He will not be reelected
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Way too early to call this. The federal Tories only finished 3 points back and I suspect the PCs should easily retain those who voted Tory federally. Steve Del Duca is popular but candidates matter less in the 905 belt than say rural ridings. This has a large Italian community who are centrist to centre-right and tend to swing massively behind whomever wins so I think if the PCs fall short of a majority this will stay Liberal, but if the PCs win a majority they will likely win this one like they did in 2011 federally and 1999 provincially.
09/12/2017 KXS
This will be an interesting riding to watch.
I believe Steven Del Duca is popular enough to hold Woodbridge on his own merits.
If the Liberals lose in June, this might be one of the few 905 ridings that they will hold.

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