Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Brampton South

Prediction Changed
2018-05-31 00:52:00

Constituency Profile










    Brampton West
   Vic Dhillon

   (89.21% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Mississauga-Brampton South
   Amrit Mangat

   (10.79% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):107364

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13387 44.69%
7792 26.01%
6562 21.91%
930 3.11%
OTHERS 1284 4.29%
Total Transposed 29956

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Brampton West

Total Transposed27754

     Mississauga-Brampton South

Total Transposed2202

Federal Election Result (2015):

Sonia Sidhu
Kyle Seeback **
Amarjit Sangha
Shaun Hatton


31/05/2018 A Vancouverite
Why was *this* your choice for a pro-NDP call in Brampton? According to tooclosetocall.ca's model, this is the only Brampton riding not leaning NDP (60% chance of PC win, 37% chance of NDP win). Not enough to call it for the PCs, but certainly shouldn't be called for the NDP before the rest of Brampton.
By the way, the same analysis gives the NDP an 80% chance of winning in Brampton North and a 70% chance of winning in Brampton West, those are the ridings that should be called.
5/29/2018 Art
Mainstreet daily polls flag this one as PC. Any weakening of the NDP gamers across Brampton and Mississauga will push this and other PC candidates higher. Between Brampton South and the PC rise in Mississauga Lakeshore we should see PC strengthening across the region.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm going to be decisively indecisive and say TCTC. One thing that's for certain, it's not going liberal. While I do think there will be more liberals surviving the implosion, mostly because of incumbent advantage and 'embarrassed liberal' voters (who won't admit they're voting red), this riding doesn't have such an advantage. While a week ago I would have called it a PC gain, the current NDP upswing in the 905, suggests a degree of competitiveness. If the NDP look poised to form government, this goes orange. If the NDP stall where they are, this does blue.
11/05/2018 Pat
Hey @brampton boy, stop being aonther typical arrogant liberal. The reason my IP shows up as 72.xx.xx.xx is because I live in Brampton South but work in downtown Toronto like a lot of Bramptonians. I'm writing this from work.
Thankfully, the Liberals will finally be booted out of Brampton South.
08/05/2018 PM
This will be a tight race. I do not live in the riding but work in it. Talk at work is that it will be close with both major parties getting their share of votes. NDP will do well in Brampton overall but not here.
04/05/2018 brampton boy
See my IP address? I am in Brampton. See the IP addresses starting with 72.xx.xx.xx? PC Trolls from Toronto. talks with his downtown Toronto neighbours and then states their opinion as if they lived and worked in Brampton South? Not very credible.
Liberals will win this riding by working hard to show voters that we care - not scare. Liberals don't have to plant fake stories online. PC Toronto Trolls Jim & Pat, Sad!
02/05/2018 Jim W
Liberals have 0 chance if winning this riding. The PCPO candidate in this riding, Prab Sarkaria, is a much much better candidate than any of the others. He has been meeting with constituents for over a year whereas the Liberal candidate has been rarely been seen anywhere.
02/05/2018 Pat
Speaking with my neighbours, local residents and businesses in the area, we all agree the PC's will win this riding this time around. No one wants to vote for the Liberals.
07/04/2018 A.S.
Weirdly enough, this is the *only* one of the current Brampton seats where notional 2014 figures show the PCs ahead of the NDP--if *anything* demonstrates how Hudak blew it (and Jagmeet portended), *that* does. Of course, it helps that this riding carries the heart of Old Brampton--and hence, it's Bill Davis's home riding, not that it's helped the Tories in recent elections. And of course, under the present provincial leadership, if Brampton South finally goes Tory, it'll be more in spite of Davis than thanks to him...
07/04/2018 OntarioEye
This one is too Liberal to lose. OLP HOLD
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
19/01/2018 Bill
This riding had the most Conservative votes out of all ridings in Brampton last election federally. It has a large portion of peel village which is beneficial to the PC's. The PC's nominated their candidate here over a year ago and have touted him to be their star in Brampton(Toronto Sun). He is a young lawyer who has deep roots within the community. The Liberals appointed a mortgage agent but brought the Premier for his annoucement to underline their need to keep the seat. Unless the Liberals really improve in numbers, the PC's have a really good shot at winning this riding.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Too early to tell but the Liberals will probably outperform what they do provincewide but whether that will be enough or not is tough to say as the Liberals aren't doing so well right now.

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