Timiskaming-Cochrane

	JOHNSON, BRIAN A.
	LALONDE, CASEY
	POIRIER, SHAWN
	SCHNARR, LAWRENCE
	VANTHOF, JOHN
	WILLIAMS, MARGARET

Incumbent(s):

	Nipissing-Timiskaming    John Vanthof    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			67290
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		6134	23.21%
		4527	17.13%
		14661	55.48%
		489	1.85%
	OTHERS	615	2.33%
	Total Transposed	26426
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Timiskaming-Cochrane
		6134
		4527
		14661
		489
	Others	615
	Total Transposed	26426
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Anthony Rota
		25357	51.90%
		Jay Aspin **
		14325	29.30%
		Kathleen Jodouin
		7936	16.20%
		Nicole Peltier
		1257	2.60%

	5/28/2018	NJam101 208.96.95.84
Big win for Vanthof. The surge in NDP support just means he may get around 2/3 of the votes.
	14/05/2018	Northern voter 47.55.31.76
Popular NDP incumbent and surging party across the province should be enough. On top of that though, the Liberals have completely disappeared. The only way the Tories could have hoped to squeak this out was a tight 3 way race. We are a week into the campaign and the Liberals do not have a candidate. Weak.
	23/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
While 45% would indeed be a daunting share for the Cons reach, it's still worth noting that this riding's federal equivalent was the only one in Northern Ontario to stay within the PC fold in 1988. Still, Vanthof's solid--indeed, it might be argued that this seat is the truer 'Charlie Angus' provincial counterpart than either Timmins or Mushkegowuk-James Bay. (And why not; unlike the federal Timmins-James Bay, it actually includes Angus's hometown of Cobalt.)
	21/04/2018	Craig 130.18.104.137
John Vanthof is quite popular here, which should allow him to easily overcome a Fordian wave. Even though this is in northern Ontario, the demographics and economics here have a southwestern Rust Belt feel to them, and this is a mostly working class riding with a large agricultural sector. As a result, I would expect the PC's to go from irrelevant to a strong second place. However, I doubt it will be enough to top Vanthof. Maybe with generic candidates, they could pull off an epic upset. The Liberals will surely be irrelevant here, and will likely end up in single digits. That means that the PC's would need at least 45% of the vote, which I don't think they have ever got here in either a federal or provincial election. Hence, the NDP should hold this one.
	24/03/2018	NJam101 63.135.16.204
John Vanthof for sure. The Liberal vote will be lower this time and the PCs could pick up some support but Vanthof will still get more than half of the votes.
	19/03/2018	jeff316 69.165.157.213
Vanthof is the perfect PC candidate and his salt of earth approach should keep him elected in a riding that otherwise could have been the PC
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
The NDP have held this without much trouble in the last decade so with a reasonably popular leader and an unpopular premier as well as an area the PCs tend to be weak in, easy NDP hold. Also Andrea Howarth's more left of centre populism may hurt her in downtown Toronto, but should be an asset in this blue collar working class riding.