Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:01:00

Constituency Profile










    Thunder Bay-Superior North
   Hon Michael Gravelle

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):70475

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15519 55.97%
1991 7.18%
8169 29.46%
997 3.60%
OTHERS 1049 3.78%
Total Transposed 27725

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Thunder Bay-Superior North

Total Transposed27725

Federal Election Result (2015):

Patty Hajdu
Andrew Foulds
Richard Harvey
Bruce Hyer **
Robert Skaf


5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm not 100% convinced that this will be a Liberal loss (or the other Thunder Bay seat). I think Gravelle has enough support in his own right to keep this from being a total wipe out. If the NDP look certain to form government, then I might think this will flip orange, but I'm not ready to make that call.
21/05/2018 Niklas
Michael Gravelle still seems to have a strong supporter base with his signs visible on nearly every street. Although NDP support seems to be on the rise in this area, it is highly unlikely we will see a new candidate with Gravelle's experience in this area making him a favorite for local residents.
There is no safe Liberal seats anymore...the NDP will flip this in an orange wave
06/05/2018 A.S.
An noteworthy if ominous footnote to the 2014 race was the best Libertarian showing in Ontario, courtesy of a trollish First Nations-baiting campaign by Tamara Johnson (Rebel Media in utero?)--by comparison, Doug Ford's accentuating the positive with all this Ring Of Fire development talk; but that may be a little too attempted-voter-baity for comfort, esp. in a riding that saw 2014's worst PC result (due surely in part to Johnson hogging the right-of-centre oxygen). We'll likelier be see things work out in a conventional Gravelle-vs-the-NDP fashion with PCs as kingmakers at most.
Like the most of Northern Ontario, I think this riding will go NDP. Charlie Agnus and his supporters are a ware of what is going on in northern Ontario because of the ring of fire vs natives vs unions.
24/03/2018 Innocent bystander
If (big 'If') the Liberals hold on here, it will be because of the incumbent, and despite the party and the leader.
Recent polling for the North has the Liberals 1 point ahead of the Greens, and far behind the PCs and NDP - there are no safe Liberal seats outside Ottawa and Toronto.
24/03/2018 NJam101
I think that Michael Gravelle will win again but it will because of his name and not the party he belongs to. Gravelle is very respected and a great listener. I agree with others who say that there really isn't a strong candidate running against him.
The NDP could do well here but I could only see it happening if the party won government or if Gravelle wasn't the Liberal candidate.
20/03/2018 A BCer
Cabinet Minister Michael Gravelle of the Liberals has held this seat for over twenty years, despite it being fairly competitive between the Liberals and NDP (Although not quite so much as the other Thunder Bay seat). He will easily retain it against low-profile NDP and PC candidates.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Gravelle gets you all the street cred of the class nerd (NDP) with all the winning aura of the football QB (Liberals). He will never lose.
09/01/2018 Craig
Wave elections can take down even long-tenured and popular incumbents. Hence, I can't call this seat safe for the Liberals, who are extremely unpopular outside of the Golden Horseshoe. If the NDP nominates a strong candidate, they might be able to make this a race. That is especially true if the PC's move up from irrelevancy to somewhat competitive (i.e. at least in the high teens), reducing the vote required. The PC's will certainly still finish a distant third though.
If Michael Gravelle really wanted to keep the seat, he would run as an independent and he would hold this seat without a fight. The partisan battle would strongly favour the NDP, but his name might be able to keep this seat red.
17/12/2017 The Jackal
This quite possibly may be the Liberals lone Northern Ontario after the election. Mr Gravelle's personal popularity may be a factor
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this for the Liberals quite yet. Michael Gravelle is very popular personally and if people vote based on candidate he should have no trouble winning. But his party is extremely unpopular in Northern Ontario and if there is a strong throw the bums out sentiment even popular MPPs can have trouble withstanding that. PCs are not likely to be a factor here.
10/12/2017 J.B.
Michael Gravelle is still personally popular in this riding, as he's held it since 1995. Since then, his margins of victory have fluctuated.
The NDP have nominated an unknown local small business woman, and the PCs are a non-factor.
This is probably the safer of the 2 Thunder Bay ridings. He's brought a lot of economic activity to the region under the various Liberal governments, including the twinning of the Trans-Canada Highway between Nipigon and Thunder Bay.
His only blemish has been his legacy...the expensive, unnecessary Nipigon River cable bridge that uprooted itself in cold weather less than 2 months after it opened, cutting off cross-country traffic for almost a day.
Voters will probably forget this if they feel that the NDP won't form government.

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