Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:01:00

Constituency Profile









    Thunder Bay-Atikokan
   Hon Bill Mauro

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):75920

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15176 52.98%
3779 13.19%
8052 28.11%
964 3.37%
OTHERS 676 2.36%
Total Transposed 28647

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Total Transposed28647

Federal Election Result (2015):

Don Rusnak
John Rafferty **
Moe Comuzzi
Christy Radbourne


5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I'm not 100% convinced that this will be a Liberal loss (or the other Thunder Bay seat). I think Mauro's personal appeal will keep it interesting. Thunder Bay is the last bastion of Liberal support in the north.
21/05/2018 Niklas
Bill Mauro has virtually nothing stopping him from easily winning this riding. The NDP has an unfamiliar candidate to this area and the PC have never been popular in previous elections. There has been nothing Mauro has done wrong so far and the support for him throughout the area is highly visible.
11/05/2018 J.B.
I'm now calling this riding for Bill Mauro. John Rafferty was the only candidate who stood any chance at defeating him.
Mauro's ground game campaign has been quick out of the gate. I can't speak for the rural portions of the riding, but his signs are already visible almost everywhere in the south side of Thunder Bay. He's a former city councillor for the Northwood ward of the city, and that's exactly where he'll rack up huge margins. His presence is also clearly visible in Westfort.
With Rafferty gone, I can't see how a new, unknown NDP candidate will steal enough votes from the Mauro camp to win. The PCs are irrelevant as this is not Doug Ford country.
06/05/2018 A.S.
Given overall Liberal straits, how much token Grit-vote-scavenging oomph might the TBCons hold? Surely I can't see the NDP as a sole repository of such wayward votes, least of all in the Ford era--and let's remember that this seat was PC as recently as 1987, i.e. Fort William has a stronger recent provincial Tory history than Port Arthur. But that was over 30 years ago. At this point, I can see the Tories more as vote-splitting enablers of the NDP than as victors in their own right...
24/03/2018 NJam101
At this point I'm guessing that Bill Mauro will win. The NDP candidate will likely be Judith Monteith-Farrell. She certainly could win if there is a big surge in NDP support across the province. But for now I'd say Mauro but the NDP candidate will not be far behind.
21/03/2018 Demarcoa
The Liberals are likely to lose a lot of votes here but looking at 2014's numbers I just can't believe either the NDP or PCs will gain enough to overcome their advantage.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Even Liberals can't believe that former professional landlord Bill Mauro is still around. If he's survived this long I can't Vaugeious or whomever the Conservatives rustle up beating him. But he has to lose sometime.
01/02/2018 Dr.Bear
Even though Rafferty is out of the race, I wouldn't be too quick to call this for the Liberals. Wynne's name is mud in much of northern Ontario, so an NDP win is not out of the question. That said, Thunder Bay has consistently been kinder to the Liberals when other cities have flipped blue or orange (see: North Bay, Sudbury, Sault Ste Marie, etc). I would say TCTC but leans Liberal.
31/01/2018 Teddy Boragina
Rafferty is out, medical condition.
Riding probably leans liberal, regardless, but the NDP could pose a real threat here.
10/12/2017 J.B.
This will be close one, it's Bill Mauro vs. John Rafferty round 3.
In 2007, Mauro last defeated Rafferty by a mere 50 votes.
Rafferty has since been elected twice as the federal NDP MP for Thunder Bay-Rainy River before losing in the Liberal sweep of NW Ontario in 2015. TCTC until closer to the election date.

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