Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:03:00

Constituency Profile










   Gila Martow

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):110427

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16688 43.28%
17228 44.68%
3089 8.01%
922 2.39%
OTHERS 631 1.64%
Total Transposed 38557

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed38557

Federal Election Result (2015):

Peter Kent **
Nancy Coldham
Lorne Cherry
Josh Rachlis
Gene Balfour
Margaret Leigh Fairbairn


06/06/2018 VM
This is probably the safest PC seat in the entire province. Interestingly, NDP has fielded a Jewish candidate this time but it has been in vain. Looks like Gila will have best gain as compared to razor thin escape over the past two attempts.
02/06/2018 Mary James
This is a wealthy Jewish riding. Along with the Conservatives having consistently supported Israel in the past, the income level is quite high. Residents are head over heels for Gila. She is a very personable and likable person. If Gila was able to win in 2014 Liberal landslide, there is no doubt in the world that Gila will win again!
5/24/2018 William
While I still believe that the PC will win this riding, you have to keep in mind that the margins have been much, much closer in this riding provincially since it was created in 1999. The issue that many believe pushed Kent over the top here (foreign affairs) is obviously something that isn't going to be at play provincially.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
In a good year (2014) the liberals couldn't take it, so forget taking it in 2018!
22/04/2018 A.S.
Re 'the PCs only won the riding marginally in 2014 because of Gila, not the party'--that claim's a bit on the conjectural side, given (a) Gila was still a bit of a recently-byelected unknown quantity in 2014, (b) she had 'incumbent advantage' that was rare for the Tories in the inner 905, and (c) as has been said over and over, the general Tory-ward trend for the Jewish-Canadian electorate which, to some degree, transcends individual candidacies. Like, the fact that Gila actually managed to defy the trend and squeak in might have looked bizarrely anomalous in 2014. But then one must consider how, the next year, Peter Kent had by far the best federal Conservative result and margin in all of Ontario (7 1/2 points higher share than runner-up Guy Lauzon in SDSG! And only Maxime Bernier and Candice Bergen matched him east of Saskatchewan!) I mean, kudos to the provincial Libs for staying relatively viable and competitive among Jewish demos through 2014, at least; but the deck's clearly stacked against them...
The post below is from Ernie who is a Liberal so of course he harbours animosity towards Gila. The boundaries of this riding now heavily include the areas that went to the PCs in large numbers last time. Gila has also been a very effective MPP on a community level. Contrary to your opinion, most people think Gila is very popular. See other posts below. Also I would add, the PCs only won the riding marginally in 2014 because of Gila, not the party.
27/03/2018 Ernie
This riding is too close to call right now. Gila Martow has demonstrated to be arrogant and she is too distant from the majority of voters. She will be relying on the party
30/01/2018 Stevo
Just look at the 2015 federal result. A massive anomaly compared to nearly every other seat in the GTA in that election. Whoever the new PC leader turns out to be, he or she can count on Thornhill. The Jewish vote has well and truly ditched the Liberals here.
03/01/2018 seasaw
The PC's are strong in this riding and Gila Martow is popular, but I wouldn't call this one for the PC's yet. It was very close the last time and everybody assumes that the PC's can't run a worse campaign than the last. You never know though, Brown's 2018 campaign might make Hudak's 2014 campaign look fabulous. If that happens, there's no way the PC's can hold on, otherwise they'll hold. Let's call it TCTC for now, I will revisit this riding when it's closer to election time
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Maybe not as strongly Tory as is federally as this was the Tories best showing in Ontario in 2015. Much of that was due to their strong pro-Israel stance in this riding with a large Jewish population. Nonetheless if the PCs could hold this in 2014, cannot see them losing this time around even if they fall short provincially.
11/12/2017 Andy
A PC walk, no contest. Gila Martow is quite popular and the liberal brand has been very weak in this riding for many previous elections.
If Gila Martow and the PCs managed to squeak a win in a horrible election for the PCs in 2014, the Liberals are super unpopular now. Easy hold.

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