Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:26:01

Constituency Profile



Cambridge, Michael

Galbraith, Tristan Andrew

Livaja, Michelle

Sturdy, Jordan

Taylor, Dana Moore

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Jordan Sturdy

Population (2014):55129
Deviation from average:3.80%
Geographical Area:11709 sq km
2013 Election Result
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Jordan Sturdy
Ana Santos
Richard Warrington
Ian McLeod
Jon Johnson
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
The BC Liberals will easily take this, the real battle is for second place. This is one where I think the Greens will come in second ahead of the NDP, but nowhere near enough to win. It might be competitive outside West Vancouver, but the BC Liberal margins there will ensure Jordan Sturdy is easily returned.
03/05/2017 Physastr Master
Interesting development: Eric Grenier now has this leaning green! While this seems absurd on the surface, in retrospect this is not entirely unbelievable. The Greens have had support in the realm of 20% for 3 of the last 4 elections, which is nearly 4 times the Metro Vancouver average. Now that the Greens are hovering around 20% across the entire lower mainland, this seems to be one of the likeliest ridings to flip their way. The NDP is dead in the water here due to their weakness in West Van and Whistler, although they are strong in Squamish. The Greens, on the other hand, will probably win Whistler this election, along with Bowen, and perhaps a few polling stations along the Sea-To-Sky near Horseshoe Bay and beyond. The question is whether Squamish will fall behind the Greens to overcome the crushing BCL support in West Van, or if it stays NDP and splits the vote causing a BCL win. I tend to believe the latter will happen, but it depends on the dynamics of the local campaign. Nonetheless, with the Liberals still collapsing in the lower mainland even after those NDP-unfriendly polls, ridings like this may be in play. I tend to think that if the NDP campaign is weak, this probably will go Green, but unfortunately I don't have the local intel to judge this. For now I think TCTC is fair, this is a very diverse riding, and the conservatism of West Van should not overshadow the legitimately progressive communities that dot the rest of the riding.
03/05/2017 JoshMartini007
The CBC poll tracker has this riding as 'lean Green' though I'm not sure why. Honestly the Liberals should win this easily.
19/04/2017 Malkmus
The more 'interesting' of the seats that contain West Van. Not that this will go anything but Liberal, but the race for second place should be interesting. How will the Greens do and can they beat the NDP here?
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
Sturdy is both the name of the incumbent and an apt description of the BC Liberals' hold on this riding, which they have held since 1991 (prior to which it was a Social Credit riding). Greens could do surprisingly well here, with a decent ground game they would not be overly optimistic to set their sights on a 20%+ result.
21/03/2017 South Islander
BCL have always won a majority of the vote here and their narrowest margin was last time when the seat was open - they still won by over 20%. Now running for reelection, Sturdy should be able to build on that. The only question here is whether the Greens will manage to win second place here as they did in 2001, 2005 and nearly did in 2009.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
The Liberals routinely win here with big margins, even during the NDP Government Days and that's not going to change.

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