Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Vancouver-West End

Prediction Changed
2017-01-11 21:04:58

Constituency Profile



Clarke, John

Dunn, Leon David

Elliott, Nigel

Herbert, Spencer Chandra

Marshall, James

Vancouver-West End
Spencer Chandra Herbert

Population (2014):57287
Deviation from average:7.80%
Geographical Area:14 sq km
2013 Election Result
Vancouver-West End
Spencer Chandra Herbert*
Scott Harrison
Jodie Emery
John Clarke
Ronald Guillermo Herbert
Mathew David Kagis
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


21/04/2017 Proud BCer
An easy hold for the NDP, although in the unlikely event that the Greens have a massive breakthrough, this is certainly one of the few seats in Greater Vancouver they might be competitive in.
17 03 09 South Islander
The BCL managed to hold Vancouver Burrard, the precursor riding, in 2005 by a tiny margin because 1) their incumbent was a visble, outspoken MLA who was popular with the LGBT community, and 2) the district contained all of Coal Harbour and Yaletown. Mayencourt isn't running here, and Yaletown + much of Coal Harbour are now in the new False Creek district. Herbert managed to win here in 2013 by nearly 30% - the addition of part of Coal Harbour might affect the margin but not the outcome.
17 01 09 Brian J
Spencer has too many factors in his favour to lose in May. He's running in downtown Vancouver, is a popular incumbent with the low-income urban voters, the Gay Village and the young downtown dwellers. It wasn't close in 2013, and it won't be close in 2017.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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