Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 20:57:18

Constituency Profile



Anton, Suzanne

Bajwa, Harpreet S.

Chow, George

Hyde, Hiroshi

Kolotyluk, Eric

Hon. Suzanne Anton, Q.C.

Population (2014):62885
Deviation from average:18.40%
Geographical Area:13 sq km
2013 Election Result
Suzanne Anton
Gabriel Yiu
Stuart Mackinnon
Rajiv Pandey
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 hay sting
South Islander-- You have a penchant for stating that others are being subjective while unwilling to stray from your own very subjective premise and predictions (which ridings have you called that will swing NDP again?), smartly buttressed as they are by B.C. electoral history.
Polls have consistently shown voter fatigue and an NDP lead in the Lower Mainland, which is feasible enough to turn several ridings. Ignoring this altogether is fairly subjective. I do think the polls underestimate BCL support, particularly in the Chinese Canadian community, which should level things somewhat.
As for my subjective, I am not predicting an NDP majority government, quite the opposite. This is due to many of the same factors you cite. But it is clearly not subjective to totally ignore regional polling numbers and questions therein. So in summary, I do think Anton will HOLD this riding with about the same or slightly less margin, and the legislature will look much the same on May 10 as it does now. I am now more confident for Ms. James's chances in Victoria than I previously was, however. Enjoy the results.
08/05/2017 Jack Cox
The NDP are going to do very well in metro Vancouver, I believe they will win all of Vancouver except for Quilchena, it's their strongest polling region and I get the feeling people are tired of Clark in the Vancouver area. This has been one of the strongest Liberal seats but I just feel the NDP will crack it.
06/05/2017 Miles Lunn
On the surface based on polls this might seem like an easy NDP pick-up, but keep in mind 50% of the riding is Chinese and they tend to be undersampled in polls yet vote heavily BC Liberal. It will come down to turnout amongst Chinese community. If strong, Anton should hold own, while if weak the NDP should pick this up.
06/05/2017 South Islander
Haystring, my predictions of other ridings are on the pages for other ridings. I have predicted some BCL seats going NDP or being tossups, but I still don't accept your premise that the NDP has to pick up seats. I think this will be a status quo (save for the South Island) or they will lose seats. The economy is performing well enough (at least the way the media reports it), the budget is balanced (I don't think debt for capital projects counts as deficit spending because it would be a wash on the balance sheet) yet the NDP is doing well enough in polls that I think the 'undecided' 10-second SoCred voters will show up like they did last time. NDP has won 2/3 times when trailing in the polls and nobody thought they would win (1972, 1996). Even in 2001, 2005 and 2009 when they trailed consistently and lost, they exceeded their polling. Yet when leading, the NDP usually loses (1983, 1986, 2013). Only in 1991 when there was a mid-campaign realignment of the coalition did the NDP lead and win. The NDP also doesn't win by attracting new voters. They lose when they get 41-46% of the vote. They have only ever won with 39-41% facing a divided coalition. There is no viable right-wing alternative to the BCL coalition. The Greens are centrist enough to siphon off moderate coalition voters, but I think they will siphon off a corresponding number from the NDP. I believe that those are the fundamentals of predicting election outcomes in BC, and they favour the BCLs. This election looks a lot like the last one but without the BC Conservatives, most polls showing the BCLs tied or trailing by less, and a stronger Green party eating the NDP's lunch on the Island. You might be right that Anton will get no incumbency boost, but your reasons are based on subjective factors. Objectively, incumbency boosts are the norm. We'll see who's right in a few days.
04/05/2017 hay sting
South Islander-- Speaking of confirmation bias- care to share any predictions of ridings that will swing to the BC NDP on May 9? I certainly think they lose a few and are very, very unlikely to form a majority government. But I do see a few pickups certainly, in the Lower Mainland.
As for Fraserview here, I don't think much of a boost can be expected, offset as it is by fatigue with the BCLs in Vancouver. But I do think Anton will take it, by a margin of no more than a few hundred votes different either way, than last time.
04/05/2017 South Islander
Haystring: You're confusing incumbency advantage with an incumbency boost. The incumbency boost is an effect where, all else equal, an incumbent's margins will be greater in their reelections than when they first won election to an open seat. Most incumbents who seek a second term get an incumbency boost. Anton may get a further boost due to having been a high-profile cabinet minister. Both James and Anton have an incumbency advantage, but only Anton can expect a boost relative to 2013. And in Victoria, I think there are local factors present that could cost James reelection despite her incumbency advantage, which is already be well-reflected in her 2013 results.
CJ: You might be experiencing a little confirmation bias. It's clear that you want the BCLs out of power and want voters to give the NDP a chance. But 7.9% is barely above the provincial average of 7.3%. 2-day turnout in Fairview and Point Grey was even higher at 9.3% and 9.7% respectively. Does that meant they are even more likely to change MLAs? It was 10.3% in Quilchena. Does that mean high advanced turnout is correlated with strong BCL performance? Perhaps, but it most likely just means that campaigns from both parties are working hard to get their vote out in these districts.
02/05/2017 CJ
In Vancouver Fraserview 3,042/38,346 or 7.9% voted early. The people of Vancouver South want the BC Liberals out of power and Give BCNDP a chance to rule after 16 years.
02/05/2017 hay sting
Misleading as lawn signs can be (Anton has a lot on houses with 'for sale' signs and some on obviously empty/under renovation homes), the sign count is way, way in her favour. I pass through this riding daily, in several areas of it and am not seeing much visible support for Chow. Of course, with the NDP quite likely ahead in most of Vancouver, it should be quite close. What I find a bit amusing is the same predictors claiming Carole James will be ousted in Victoria and has no incumbency advantage, while trumpeting Anton's incumbency here. I see a but of similarity between the races actually, despite (or because of) the vastly different demographic. Both face challenges of different sorts, but I think both will hang on to their seats come May 9.
01/05/2017 South Islander
The BCLs won here by 2 when they lost Vancouver by 7. All else equal, incumbency boosts for Heyman and Eby would account for 1-2 percent worth of gains in the City. Thus, for this district to look likely NDP, the party would have to be leading in the City by double digits. Justason (albeit with tiny-sampled breakdowns) hasn't shown that. Ipsos doesn't seem to be showing a big NDP lead in Metro Vancouver either. And Mainstreet's poll from April 20-22 is looking like an outdated outlier, as their soon-to-be-released update will probably confirm. Far from leaning NDP, this district is still very much in play if not tilting BCL. Even if the BCLs lose Vancouver by 10, Anton will probably carry Fraserview due to her reasonably solid AG performance and incumbency boost. And I don't necessarily even think the BCLs will lose Vancouver at all, let alone by 10.
27/04/2017 Ron Victoria
This riding should be a Liberal hold but it is not; the reasons reflect the issues with the BC Liberals generally.
The BC Liberal candidate Anton is a decisive and strong cabinet minister but she's also arrogant and losing her ability to consult with the public and stakeholders in her Ministry. She growing dangerously out of touch with her voters.
Her issues are not unique but true with a lot of cabinet ministers/strong MLA's like Fassbender and Coleman who also are "my way or the highway" types.
Oddly enough, Premier Clark is not one those who has completely lost touch with the public. However, any party that has been in power this long has too many Party people who think it is their divine right to govern.
This is true with the BC Liberals and this candidate. She is in a fight for her political life and will have a very long election night.
I fear the BC Liberals are in trouble; arrogance from too long a time in government is the cause.
23/04/2017 T.C.
Right off the bat, the BC NDP has had a problem recruiting a candidate here for 2017. During 2013, the BC NDP had a nomination contest between George Chow and Gabriel Yiu. Chow lost the nomination and was later parachuted as the BC NDP candidate into Vancouver-Langara.
The BC NDP attempted to recruit Van City councillors Kerry Jang and Raymond Louie to no avail. Earlier last year, Chow told the media he had no interest in running in 2017. However, it's obvious that the BC NDP convinced Chow to run and parachuted him into this riding uncontested.
It is also worth noting that, during the November, 2014 municipal election, the centre-right NPA performed relatively strong here winning the underlying polling divisions of Vancouver-Fraserview.
The 2013 transposed result for Vancouver-Fraserview:
BC Liberal: 46.7%
BC NDP: 44.6%
BC Green: 5.7%
BCCP: 3%
The BC Liberals won this riding by a slim 2.1% margin in 2013. However, the BCCP received 3% here in 2013 and are not running a 2017 candidate. This 3% vote will likely shift to the BC Libs in 2017. Moreover, the BC Greens are witnessing a bit of a surge and will also likely eat more into the 2013 BC NDP vote than the 2013 BC Liberal vote in 2017.
Finally, the new River District must also be taken into account. The River District comprises 130 acres and will eventually house ~18,000 new residents. Major new low-rise/mid-rise/high-rise developments have already been completed or are under way. These new owner/occupiers likely trend BC Liberal.
Vancouver-Fraserview is a swing riding - the party that forms gov't wins the riding.
21/04/2017 Proud BCer
The NDP nearly won this seat in 2013. This time, they are running the very popular former city councillor George Chow. Incumbent BC Liberal MLA (and Attorney General) Suzanne Anton has a battle on her hands. Chow and Anton last faced each other on a ballot in the 2008 municipal election, with Chow winning more votes then Anton, although that will have little bearing on this election. Fraserview will probably be one of the closest fought ridings of the night, but Chow should emerge victorious.
14/04/2017 Jack Cox
Right now it's a close election but if I'm a betting man by how the polls are right now the BC NDP will win this seat. That's if the polls are correct because we all saw what happened last time.
10/04/2017 Brian A
Westside Vancouver will be fun to watch, as some seats are solidly one side or the other, and others are TCTC. But, eastside Vancouver is solidly NDP. Counsellor Chow is extremely popular and extremely dynamic, and I just don't see any scenario where he doesn't win Fraserview.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Wow! This one is a toss-up nail-biter. Both candidates for BC Libs and NDP are extremely qualified. Given how close last election results were in this riding and given fact that NDP has best candidate in many elections chosen for this riding (former Vancouver city councillor) I do believe it will narrowly turn NDP. Could be a re-count in this one.
17 03 07 South Islander
As Fraserview goes, so goes the Province. I don't see the NDP winning when they are polling below 40 even before the start of the campaign against a 16-year incumbent government with big coffers and a strong campaigner at the helm. Anton has also been a solid AG since she won this seat in 2013 and was a popular city councilor and mayoral contender before that. The NDP already have a 7-4 advantage in Vancouver - they need to focus on holding their ground here and making inroads in the suburbs and interior in order to win.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Of the seats in the east end this one seems to go with the Government, but it's also low hanging fruit for Horgan and he needs to win this.

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