Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Vancouver-False Creek

Prediction Changed
2017-03-06 21:30:37

Constituency Profile



Filippelli, James

Jaluague, Liz

Oger, Morgane

Ryan, Phillip James

Shende, Bradley Darren

Sullivan, Sam

Vancouver-False Creek
Sam Sullivan

Population (2014):57261
Deviation from average:7.80%
Geographical Area:6 sq km
2013 Election Result
Vancouver-False Creek
Sam Sullivan
Matt Toner
Daniel Tseghay
Ian James Tootill
Sal Vetro
James Filippelli
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


01/05/2017 Seth
Sullivan is Mr. Invisible as an MLA. When I tell people that my MLA is Sam Sullivan, their reaction is almost always 'Really? The former mayor? He's an MLA? I had no idea.'
With Coal Harbour taken out of the riding it is going to be much closer than last time, but I still think Mr. Invisible has the advantage here.
29/04/2017 hay sting
Well I'll go against the grain here. The redistribution did not change things much vis a vis 2009. But I think there is enough urban anger, as demonstrated repeatedly in polls, to make this a very close race. Sullivan has not had a terribly high profile as an MLA, so could still coast to victory on his history. But even a bleed from him to the Greens and NDP by 1,500 or so would be enough to flip this. At the very least, it will be much tighter.
NDP by a whisker.
21/04/2017 Proud BCer
Former Vancouver mayor and incumbent Liberal MLA Sam Sullivan should be returned here safely. The demographics of this riding, wealthy high-rise condo dwellers, make this probably the second safest seat for the Liberals in City of Vancouver after Vancouver-Quilchena. It is quite possible that the Greens could finish ahead of the NDP here when the night is over.
20/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
Former Mayor Sam Sullivan could lose 10 points and still win. And he isn't going to lose 10 points.
17/04/2017 Malkmus
The luxury condo riding. Easy hold for Sam Sullivan.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Wealthy voters in luxury condos keep this riding solidly BC Liberal.
17 03 06 South Islander
I can't see the BC Liberals losing this one unless the NDP wins the election by a huge margin. Given that they are the primary opposition to a government that has been in power for 16 years and are still polling lower than their result from the previous election that they lost, I can't see them winning at all. The Liberals have a strong and experienced candidate in Sam Sullivan. Boundary changes are favourable to the NDP but very minor.
17 03 03 Pundit79
I just can?t see this riding switching even with the boundary changes.
17 01 21 T.C.
Vancouver False-Creek is a safe BC Liberal seat - one of only three within the City of Vancouver - Van-Quilchena and Van-Langara being the 2 others.
Most of the centre-right leaning Coal Harbour residential area was already contained within the riding of Vancouver-West End prior to the recent boundary changes.
The recent boundary changes to Vancouver-False Creek comprised the removal of the portion west of Burrard Street to Jervis Street and north of West Georgia Street. This area includes office buildings in the downtown CBD, hotels, the Trade and Convention Centre as well as some residential towers. IOW, it is a Coal Harbour transition zone that only contained 3 polling stations.
Transposed 0133 results based upon riding boundary change:
BC Liberal: 51.5%
BC NDP: 37.7%
BC Green: 9.1%
Back in 2013, the BC NDP ran a stellar candidate here in hi-tech entrepreneur Matt Toner. After the 2013 election, Toner defected over to the BC Greens and is now their deputy leader.
One should also look at the underlying federal voting patterns in Vancouver-False Creek. In the past 3 federal elections, the vast majority of polling stations contained within the provincial boundaries of Vancouver-False Creek saw federal Liberal-federal CPC battles with the NDP relegated to 3rd place. Completely different story in the neighbouring provincial riding of Vancouver-West End, which is lower-income with majority renters.
Again, Vancouver-False Creek should be considered a safe BC Liberal seat.
17 01 18 Politics101
One thing to keep in mind about this riding and it is the one that I vote in is that the boundaries have been changes.
Coal Harbour - which went heavily Liberal in the last election is no longer in the riding. It is now part of Vancouver West End.
Sam at times is invisible - very little communication from him.
To me it is toss up and is likely to go as the Province goes.
17 01 09 Brian J
Morgane is getting a lot of press for running to be the first trans MLA to win in BC. She's a strong candidate, and her status gives her kind of star status. Can she make up more than 15% and beat Sullivan? My heart is with her, but my head is saying the safe wager is to bet on the Liberals to hold on here.

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