Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 11:07:10

Constituency Profile



Begg, Garry

Murphy, Jodi

Pielak, Kevin

Virk, Amrik

Hon. Amrik Virk

Population (2014):58037
Deviation from average:9.30%
Geographical Area:42 sq km
2013 Election Result
Amrik Virk
Avtar Bains
Barry J Sikora
Sukhi Gill
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Bryan
I don't understand why so many submit information here and justify it by saying 'Eric Grenier at CBC has this riding this way'. First of all, there are other people doing projections in this country. It's not like the track record of Eric justifies only using him. But most importantly, the whole point of this site here is to provide info that polls couldn't really provide. Like you like in the riding and you provide your own assessment. So if everybody just copies the projections from the CBC, it doesn't make much sense.
I think this riding will be very close. Polls favour NDP but I'm not sure the NDP candidate is that strong. Also, I think Liberals incumbents will do better than expected in the Lower Mainland.
05/05/2017 Physastr Master
This has been listed as 'safe NDP' (>95% confidence) by Eric Grenier throughout all of the ups and downs of polling over the last week. Time to call it, there is no reason to believe the Liberals can hold on to such a razor-thin margin with a 16-point regional swing away from them. The latest Angus poll had the Liberals 19 points behind in Metro Vancouver! The same goes for Delta North (also 'safe NDP'), Surrey-Panorama, North Van-Lonsdale, and Port Moody-Coquitlam (all 'likely NDP')
It's going to be tight but I think this should be a Liberal hold.
Amrik Virk has a high profile and should eek out anarrow win depending on turn-out in the areas that traditionally support the BC Liberals such as Fraser Heights.
21/03/2017 South Islander
This redistributed district only went BCL by a tiny margin in 2013. But Virk is now an incumbent and cabinet minister. With a Green in the race and Conservatives in chaos, he should be able to improve his margin. Unless the provincial campaign goes poorly for the BCL, this should be a hold.
17 01 07 T.C.
The new Surrey-Guildford riding comprises most of the old Surrey-Tynehead riding. Boundary changes:
The area south of 96th Ave. has been removed, which trended strongly BC Liberal in 2013.
The area west of 148 St. to 140 St. has been added, which trended strongly NDP in 2013.
The area north of Highway 1, Fraser Heights, could be considered the riding ?anchor? and trends heavily centre-right or BC Liberal.
With boundary changes the transposed results for 2013 are:
BC Libeal: 44.1%
BC NDP 42.9%
BC Conservative: 11.4%
Compared to 22013, the BC Liberal margin over the BC NDP has shrunk considerably to just 1.2%. But the key here is the unusually large BC Conservative vote in 2013 at 11.4%. The BC Conservatives are currently leaderless, insolvent, and consumed with in-fighting, which leads one to believe that they will run few, if any, candidates in 2017.
Ergo, the 11.4% 2013 BC Conservative vote will likely highly trend toward the BC Liberals in 2017 as a result providing the BC Liberals with a cushion.
Moreover, the BC Greens did not run a candidate here in 2013 but will run in 86/87 BC ridings in 2013. My rule of thumb is that the BC Greens take 3 votes from the BC NDP for every 2 votes from the BC Liberals, generally speaking.
And, with riding boundary changes, Surrey-Guildford is now a swing riding that leans marginally BC Liberal and I suspect that it will remain in that column barring some unforeseen event/polling data during the final week of the election campaign.
PS. During the 2015 federal election, the overlying federal seat of Fleetwood-Port Kells (with Surrey-Guildford comprising ~1/2 of same) saw the federal NDP well back in 3rd place at 21.5% popular vote srrre
17 01 05 Brian J
This one is tough to call. Guildford area is pretty low-income and kind of falls into the same basket as Whalley next-door. The BCNDP are running retired Surrey RCMP Inspector Garry Begg, who put up a great fight in Fleetwood in the last federal election.
I e chose to run in Surrey-Fleetwood, I'd say it would be a close race, with the Liberals at an advantage. But in Guildford...I'm going to have to go with the BCNDP. But it'll be a fight for Garry.

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