Surrey-Green Timbers

	Aujla, Saira
	Bajwa, Vikram
	Locke, Brenda Joy
	Moti, Kanwaljit Singh
	Singh, Rachna
Incumbent:
	Surrey-Green Timbers Sue Hammell

Reference:

Population (2014):			58816
Deviation from average:			10.70%
Geographical Area:			18 sq km
2013 Election Result
	Surrey-Green Timbers
		Sue Hammell*
		9386	58.06%
		Amrik Tung
		5581	34.52%
		Richard Hosein
		655	4.05%
		Lisa Maharaj
		444	2.75%
		Harjit Singh Heir
		101	0.62%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election

	10/04/2017	South Islander 207.6.126.250
Sue Hammell, who represented this district for 22 years, isn't running again. Her winning margins since her defeat were 29%, 49% and 24%. Brenda Locke, the only person to interrupt Hammell's reign, is running for the open seat she held between 2001-2005. I think this is more of a case of Locke being a good party soldier than making a serious play to retake a district that seems to tilt heavily NDP. It would be hard for the BCL to justify using resources here when they have Fassbender and Virk to defend and want to hold the open Panorama district against Jinny Sims. However, the degree to which Hammell boosted the NDP is unknown because she is the only NDP candidate that has ever appeared on the ballot. This election, I expect Locke to finish within 20% of Singh, who will still comfortably hold this district. Only if the NDP collapse at the expense of the Greens might Locke have an outside chance here.
	17 01 07	Brian J 64.114.70.133
Sue Hammell isn't running again, but this riding should stick to the BCNDP regardless. Since 1991, it's been solid NDP except from 2001-2005. Surrey overall is fertile ground for Team Horgan this May, so it would take a significant shift in the winds for any of the BCNDP-won seats in Surrey from 2013 to switch sides - incumbent or no.