Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 16:53:49

Constituency Profile



Binnema, Tim

Brar, Jagrup

Fassbender, Peter

Hon. Peter Fassbender

Population (2014):60477
Deviation from average:13.90%
Geographical Area:17 sq km
2013 Election Result
Peter Fassbender
Jagrup Brar*
Tim Binnema
Murali Krishnan
Arvin Kumar (AK)
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
If you look at Mainstreet's poll it looks like the BC Liberals are ahead here. It is partly the power of incumbency but also I think you are seeing a shift in voting preferences amongst the Indo-Canadian community. 20 years ago most were blue collar workers thus heavily voted NDP, but most of their children who are now grown up are better educated and many are in high skilled fields like the tech industry and engineering thus Horgan's tax hike proposals probably scare them. Never mind even amongst blue collar workers there is a shift to the BC Liberals while the NDP is offsetting this due to gains amongst upper middle class university educated types who unlike 20 years ago are not the lock on the BC Liberals they used to be. However the latter are largely in Vancouver proper, Burnaby, and North Shore, not Surrey.
08/05/2017 South Islander
I would have thought this might be a nail-biter possibly tilting NDP, but Mainstreet has Fassbender ahead by 9% among leading and decided (or by 16% among strong only) with a MOE of about 4.8. Perhaps most of the new NDP support showing in Lower Mainland sub-samples is North of the Fraser. Perhaps his constituents simply don't want him to lose as badly as NDP campaigners do. Perhaps the poll is just flat wrong. We will find out tomorrow, but I'd give Fassbender the edge. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-set-majority/
13 05 08 Sunny
Peter Fassbender will win this riding for sure, he has incumbency on his side and has been a high profile minister in Christy Clark's cabinet. He has amassed a huge team of volunteers I see them out all the time. He has many more signs up than Jagrup. Fassbender will continue to be the MLA In this riding
With the Green vote going up in this election, I expect in this riding that to benefit Peter Fassbender. The South Asian community has dramatically changed over the last 8 years. It is no longer a community that has the strong historical connection to unions and the NDP; instead, it is a community of business owners and that will benefit the BC Liberals overall. Finally, with a massive appreciate of home values, the income demographic of this riding has dramatically shifted.
08/05/2017 Calvin
The incumbency advantage here will be significant. Peter was a high profile cabinet minister. His office was renowned for their constit work.I suspect these two reasons will push Peter over the top coupled with the surge in the Green Party, who seem much for organized in the riding this time.
Time to call this for the NDP. Fassbender is unpopular, the NDP are on the upswing going into the final week of the election (where they were in free fall last election at this point), and redistribution makes this a riding that would have gone NDP in 2013.
I don't know if the NDP will form government (still too close to call) but this riding is an obvious flip.
27/04/2017 VapeBear
If I was Mr. Fassbender driving around the neighborhoods in this district I would be quite concerned - far more NDP lawn signs than BC Liberal signs - most concerning is the Brar signs outside large relatively new built homes.
It hurts the Liberal chances that the redistricting removed a good chunk of the southeast part of the district. I think the prominence of Fassbender as a cabinet minister in the current government is a wash. Both he and Mr. Brar are personable candidates and Mr. Brar is well respected in the area for his previous MLA work.
With the current polling numbers, I see a 5% win for the NDP in this district.
Redistribution makes this an even tougher riding for the Liberals to hold. And with Fassbender being a liability that plays into every negative perception of the BC Liberals expect an NDP win.
11/04/2017 pundit79
I believe the very likeable and hardworking jagrub Brar will win back this seat. The BC Liberal win last was just a fluke.
17 03 12 South Islander
I feel pretty bullish about the BCL's chances overall in this election, but this will be hotly contested. It is notionally marginally NDP based even on the transposed 2013 results - the worst for the NDP of the past 3 elections. The incumbent was Minister of Education during the teachers' strike, and is now Minister Responsible for Translink. The incumbent and the natural tilt could make this the number one target in the province for the NDP. At the same time, the BCLs may benefit from incumbency and a more favourable vote-splitting dynamic. I think the BCL will either maintain or improve their popular vote margin province-wide, but local campaigns could dominate this district.
17 01 08 T.C.
Surprisingly, this BC NDP held seat in both 2005 and 2009 shifted over to the BC Liberals in 2013 albeit very marginally. One of those inner northwest Surrey seats with a larger Indo-Canadian population, which all saw shifts to the BC Liberals over 2009.
New riding boundary changes include lopping off a portion of the SE section of the riding (trends BC Liberal) while adding on a portion to the western boundary of the riding (trends BC NDP).
Base upon the new riding boundaries, 2013 transposed results:
BCNP: 47.4%%
BC Liberal: 43.3%
BCCP: 4.1%
BC Green: .2%%
Clearly the BC NDP would have held this seat in 2013 under the new riding boundaries. But, again, since the BCCP are unlikely to run a candidate here in 2017, their 4.1% will likely drift over to the BC Liberals in 2017. All of a sudden this seat then becomes a toss-up.
Moreover, the BC Greens are likely to increase their popular vote share both here and province-wide in 2017. And will incumbency have an effect on this riding (even with former BC NDP MLA Jagrup Brar running again in 2017)?
Frankly, calling this seat right now is a crap-shoot. This riding will likely be one of those called during the final days of the 2017 campaign..
17 01 07 Brian J
Former MLA Jagrup Brar is running here for the BCNDP and Horgan considers this seat one of his must-win ridings in BC overall, and in Surrey in particular. I'd be prepared to consider this seat a bellwether for if the BCNDP will be forming government in May or not. If Horgan can't pick up Fleetwood, then look for a Christy Clark win provincially.
17 01 05 Jack Cox
NDP are in better polling position then the last election, and while some might say polls are overrated, I would have to think the NDP can win a close seat like this much more easily,

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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