Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Richmond South Centre

Prediction Changed
2017-03-21 22:19:53

Constituency Profile



Au, Chak

Powell, Greg

Reid, Linda

(new district)

Population (2014):50101
Deviation from average:-5.70%
Geographical Area:7 sq km
2013 Election Result
(new district)


14/04/2017 Richmondite
It's easy to throw the history books at this riding and call it for the Liberals, but the emergence of Chak Au as the NDP candidate has really made this riding more unpredictable than ever.
I am a Richmond resident and telling from the latest editions of the Richmond News the longtime Liberal MLA Linda Reid is definitely feeling some competition after pulling off 3 ads in the same paper. Au is a popular city councilor as he racked up the 2nd most votes in the last municipal election and has great name recognition in the riding and beyond Richmond itself. It is safe to say that there is some overlap of Au's voter base municipally and the typical Liberal voter base (Au ran under Richmond Community Coalition, a centre to centre-right municipal group), which could potentially drain Liberal votes and close the % gap between the Liberal and NDP. Based on Au's well-recognized name within the Chinese-Canadian community within the riding and recent community uproars in Richmond regarding school closures, lack of support to rebuild Richmond Hospital, Massey Bridge and etc., I'm not ready to chalk this riding up for the Liberals just yet. Maybe time will tell as the election intensifies, but for now it's TCTC.
20/03/2017 South Islander
'While Richmond South Centre is new, polling stations within its boundaries supported the B.C. Liberals by 53.2 per cent to the NDP's 23.6 per cent' (CBC). Furthermore, 'the NDP hasn't won a riding in Richmond since 1972, and it hasn't even secured one-third of the vote in any riding since 1991. Federally, it was unable to crack 15 per cent in either of the two ridings last election.' (CBC) The district may have a higher concentration of Chinese-Canadian voters than the old RE district (I'm sure EP is correct about this), but it was also more strongly BCL (29.6% margin in RSC vs 26.2% margin in RE). Alice Wong may in fact be supporting Chak Au (I have seen no indication that this is true), but she has not publicly endorsed him. If she did, I can't imagine her surviving a nomination challenge and I cannot imagine that her campaign team would follow. She only held Richmond Centre by 1,200 votes (less than 3%) in 2015, so she isn't invulnerable politically. Linda Reid on the other hand is not only a 26-year incumbent, she is now the Speaker of the legislature.
Richmond was written off by the NDP even in 2013 and was hardly a focal point for the BCL, who have been very good to Richmond while in government and won here by 30% in 2009. If the NDP focuses on RSC, the BCLs will concentrate Richmond resources to defend their speaker and most senior MLA. I'm sure that the NDP can improve their margins in RSC, but I don't think that ethnicity trumps ideology to the tune of erasing a 30% margin against the most experienced provincial politician in BC. If the NDP win the election by an enormous margin, they could feasibly win here in a close race. But as it stands now, I don't think this riding is closer or harder to call than most of the current predicted holds for the BCLs.
19/03/2017 T.C.
Transposed results for the 2013 election:
BC Liberal: 53.3%
BC NDP: 23.6%
BCCP: 7.4%
BC Green: 7%
Ind. 8%
The BC Liberals won this seat by a ~30% margin in 2013 and it's their safest Richmond seat based upon 2013 transposed results. Moreover, the moribund BCCP is not likely to run a candidate here in 2017, which likely provides another 7% cushion to the BC Liberals.
If an opposition candidate is a local municipal politician, if lucky, they may get up to a 5% bump over previous election results. That's about it.
Safe BC Liberal seat.
19/03/2017 EP
Not so fast. This riding is more Chinese than the old Richmond East, and the NDP is running high profile Chinese city councillor Chak Au, who is backed by numerous right of centre conservative figures (federal MP/former minister Alice Wong and former BC Conservative candidate Carol Day, etc).
Linda Reid may be the longest serving member but her days in the legislature may be numbered.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Richmond is a dead zone for the NDP, they routinely get blown out here and unless the polls shift dramatically expect a Liberal sweep of the area.

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