Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-07 13:11:40

Constituency Profile



Chen, Lawrence

Hale, Kay Khilvinder

Johal, Jas

Singh, Aman

Wolfe, Michael

Richmond East
Hon. Linda Reid

Population (2014):55627
Deviation from average:4.70%
Geographical Area:92 sq km
2013 Election Result
Richmond East
Linda Reid*
Gian Sihota
Nathaniel Lim
Doug Perry
Lloyd Chen
Ping Chan
Cliff Wei
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


07/05/2017 Physastr Master
@South Islander: Eric Grenier posts his riding projections on his twitter page - https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC
The most recent update included the Angus Reid poll, which had the inner lower mainland (i.e. the GVRD) trending towards the NDP with a 25 point swing from last election, while the outer lower mainland and interior are slipping away. It would be fair to predict a few liberal pickups elsewhere (Skeena and Columbia River-Revelstoke being prime candidates), but in this area, Richmond or not, urban issues dominate, and the 16-25% swing towards the NDP applies (depending on what pollster you believe). This should *theoretically* mean that the Maple Ridge ridings may be out of grasp (maybe revisit Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows), but in the inner part of Vancouver could be an NDP landslide. It seems strange that places like Richmond-Steveston, Van-False Creek, and North Vancouver Seymour are in play as 'bonus ridings' and Kamloops, Penticton, Vernon, etc are not, but that appears to be the direction the trend is going in. Subsequently, assuming that the polls are doing even slightly better than in 2013, anything that was close (within 8 points) in the GVRD last time should be an NDP blowout (all of Burnaby, the parts of Surrey/Delta that aren't associated with White Rock or Cloverdale, and the Tri-Cities except for maybe Burke Mountain). Meanwhile, ridings like this will decide the election. Whoever wins here, I am convinced it will be the governing party, and I don't think anyone can say with confidence who that will be. TCTC until the last second of the election campaign.
The NDP is running a strong campaign here with a good candidate who happens to be a bright, personable, UC Berkeley trained lawyer.
The riding changes don't hurt either.
The NDP may not win the election but they have a real chance at winning this riding.
06/05/2017 T.C.
Yes, Queensborough was spliced off from New Westminster and added to this new Richmond riding. However, Queensborough was the strongest area for the BC Liberals in the New Westminster riding winning 6 of the polling stations thereon v. 8 for the BC NDP. Furthermore, new townhouse developments were completed by 2013 on the east end of Queensborough and those 2 polling stations held 56% and 54% for the BC Liberals. Since then, additional townhouse projects have been completed and more are still under construction. These new owner-occupiers obviously trend BC Liberal.
The 2013 transposed results for Richmond-Queensborough:
BC Liberal: 50%
BC NDP: 34.3%
BC Conservative: 7.5%
BC Green: 5.9%
The BC Liberals won this new riding by ~16% margin in 2013 - certainly not a swing riding.
06/05/2017 Jody
This is very strange - if Richmond goes so does all of BC liberals. Queensbourogh is a tiny fraction of this riding. I predict Liberal win here
06/05/2017 Miles Lunn
While its true the NDP is fairly strong in Queensborough, not to the extent of New Westminster as in 2013 8 polls went NDP and 6 BC Liberals. However the majority of the population of the riding lives in the Richmond portion and the BC Liberal strength there will be more than enough to carry the riding. If you use the transposed results from 2013 it would be 51% BC Liberals and 28% NDP so even if the NDP is ahead by 10 points in the Lower Mainland (which is doubtful but still possible) they would still come up short in this one. If the NDP won this, we would be looking at a landslide of over 60 seats province wide and that is extremely unlikely to happen this time around.
06/05/2017 South Islander
Queensborough contains at most 1/5 of the population of this district. The old New West district was less NDP leaning than Richmond East was BCL leaning. With a decent sample size and IVR/Online mix, Justason has the BCLs ahead in Metro Van. Consistently behind initially, the BCLs seem to have momentum and likely also the lead going into the final stretch. Bryan Breguet at Too Close to Call has the BCLs up by 8 here. Richmondite, you indicated 'Eric Grenier is the pollster for CBC and recently released riding projections for ridings across BC and Richmond Queensborough is listed as lean NDP'. I've been following Grenier for a while - he posts riding count estimates by region, but as far as I know, he has never listed breakdowns by riding. If you know otherwise, could you post a link?
03/05/2017 Physastr Master
Yes, Richmond is a dead zone for the NDP... but Queensborough isn't. The question, then, is what happens when a wedge of an NDP stronghold (New Westminster) meets an NDP dead zone? Given the fact that even after the much closer post-debate polls, the NDP is still surging in the lower mainland, this just seems like another domino ready to fall into the NDP's court. NDP gain!
I am going off on a limb and am going to call this one for the NDP.
Why? Because it isn't entirely a traditional 'Richmond' riding.
Queensborough is a bit like a middle class area of New Westminster and the NDP is doing well generally in the Lower Mainland. It's also an increasingly heavily populated area.
01/05/2017 Richmondite
Maybe not so fast. Eric Grenier is the pollster for CBC and recently released riding projections for ridings across BC and Richmond Queensborough is listed as lean NDP. Definitely a tighter race than expected and perhaps a riding that will go down the wire to the last handful of ballot boxes. TCTC.
30/04/2017 keglerdave
Actually with the addition of Queensborough to this riding, it could easily swing it to the BCNDP. Jas Johal is a weak former media star with zero political chops. His claim to fame, head squawkbox for LNG in BC (and how well has that worked, remember Clark's nonsense in the last election of trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of jobs etc... flat as weak old ginger ale). BCNDP is running a strong campaign and candidate in this riding. BC Liberal brand is damaged because of Clark's mystifying myth telling and lying. Tight but going NDP.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Richmond is a dead zone for the NDP, they routinely get blown out here and unless the polls shift dramatically expect a Liberal sweep of the area.

Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster