Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 16:53:42

Constituency Profile



Barthel, Don

Glumac, Rick

Reimer, Linda

Port Moody-Coquitlam
Linda Reimer

Population (2014):59355
Deviation from average:11.70%
Geographical Area:85 sq km
2013 Election Result
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Linda Reimer
Joe Trasolini*
Billie Helps
Jeff Monds
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


02/05/2017 Jack Cox
The NDP's strongest polling results are in the lower mainland, I would be stunned if they don't take this seat,
21/04/2017 The Tyee
The Tyee: Could Kinder Morgan Cost the BC Liberals Four Seats?
17 03 07 South Islander
Brian J might be right that the NDP really, really needs to win this riding, but he left out the bit where he actually explains why he believes that is likely to happen.
The Liberals won this by 12% in 2009, lost it in a by-election and won it back by 2% during the general against the NDP incumbent and recent mayor of Port Moody. Historical results indicate that the BC Liberals have the natural advantage in the district; now they have the incumbency advantage as well.
The NDP seems poised to lose the election again. They are facing a 16-year incumbent that they should have beaten last time, but are only polling in the 30s. They may be tied or ahead of the BC Liberals now, but: 1) the Premier is a stronger and more experienced campaigner than Horgan, 2) the BC Liberals have deeper pockets, 3) The BC Conservatives will lose most of their double-digit support to the BC Liberals over the course of the campaign, and 4) the BC Liberals have less territory to defend in the Tri-cities.
Even if, as Brian J says, the NDP would need to win here to win the election, the Liberals will win Port Moody-Coquitlam and a fifth term..
17 01 09 Brian J
Basically, any seat the NDP lost by less than 5% in 2013 needs to be won this time if John Horgan has any hope of winning this election. The Tri-cities need to be painted orange in May as part of Horgan's strategy. The BCNDP already hold nearly every seat in the area; this one needs to be won.

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