Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Port Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
2017-01-08 23:23:35

Constituency Profile



Chambers, Susan

Dahlby, Lewis Clarke

Farnworth, Mike

Gibbons, Billy

Hanley, Jason

Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth

Population (2014):60813
Deviation from average:14.50%
Geographical Area:35 sq km
2013 Election Result
Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth*
Barbara Lu
Ryan Hague
Brent Williams
Jogender Dahiya (JD)
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
While this riding leans NDP, it is more a Mike Farnworth riding as James Moore had no trouble winning the majority of polls for the federal Conservatives so if two generic candidates it could be more competitive, but Mike Farnworth is a well respected MLA and their slight edge plus his strong personal support should put them over the top here.
26/04/2017 Prediction King
The only thing holding Farnworth back from a 60% plus win is those 3 little letters next to his name on the ballot. If the NDP loses yet another election, one wonders if they will finally wake up and elect Farnworth, arguably one of the most popular and electable politicians in the province, as their leader. He could have won them the 2013 election and my sense is he could have won them this one too.
21/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
Agree with SouthIslander - Farnworth is the Premier who never was. I think after the HST debacle, the NDP figured the 2013 election was as good as won, and given the polls who could blame them? So they decided to go with a leader from the hard left in Dix, to get some of the policies through they really wanted. The gamble failed and the NDP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. As it is, this 26 year incumbent (not counting the 2001-2005 sabbatical most of the NDP went on) is here to stay. I doubt he will ever lose another election.
17 03 12 Mr Prediction
Working class blue collar riding with decades of history voting NDP + a hugely popular incumbent with universal name recognition. Add to that the Liberals still don't have a candidate. Mike Farnworth will win with 50% to 60% of the vote.
17 03 07 South Islander
Who knows what the natural partisan tilt of this district is - Mike Farnworth is a moderate and extremely popular MLA with cross-party appeal. Had the NDP chosen him in 2011, he'd probably be the premier today.
17 01 07 Brian J
Former BCNDP leadership candidate Mike Farnsworth is running again here. PoCo - as its affectionately known - is not going BC Liberal anytime soon, but look for a more contested race when Mike retires.
17 01 07 Jack Cox
This is pretty much Mike Farnworth's seat until he retires. This used to be more competitive when Burke Mountain was part of the seat but Farnworth is too well known and is easily a minister if John Horgan becomes Premier.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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