Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:23:23

Constituency Profile



Hand, Terry

Powell, Sue

Sollitt, Glenn

Stilwell, Michelle

Hon. Michelle Stilwell

Population (2014):54089
Deviation from average:1.80%
Geographical Area:978 sq km
2013 Election Result
Michelle Stilwell
Barry Avis
David Bernard Coupland
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Last time around there was a BC Conservative candidate to split the right wing vote while no Green to split the left. This time around a Green to split the left while no BC Conservative so regardless of the province wide results, I am near certain this riding will stay BC Liberal, it is their strongest on the Island. Also has a very large senior population who the BC Liberals are strong amongst while not so many millennials who they are weakest amongst. Many are from Alberta and they are not happy with their provincial NDP government so they will not want to see BC go down the same road.
07/05/2017 Mark the Lark
This will be a much tighter win for the BC Liberals this time. The NDP candidate has had a pretty low profile this cycle.
With chatter about several Young Liberals out stumping for the Green candidate, and the personal popularity of the Green candidate growing, the margin of win for Stilwell will shrink.
But she has been an effective MLA and the Olympian turned a politician should win this.
03/05/2017 political fox
I would not assume Michelle Stillwell is going to get elected just cause she did in 2013. One unlike 2013 there is a green candidate in this riding and the greens are in 2nd place on the Vancouver Island according to the mainstreet poll at the expense of the BC Liberals who are persistently in 3rd place on the Island
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
No such thing as a safe Liberal seat on Vancouver Island...and this is the exception that proves the rule.
17 03 09 South Islander
If Stilwell won this open seat by 13% when the BCL were reduced to 2 seats on the Island, she will easily hold it this time as an incumbent cabinet minister.
17 01 17 Pundit79
This is probably the only seat that the BC Liberals will win on the island.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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